What is happening with BRLC ?

[aaronk321]

what is your crystal telling you when this POS is gonna hit the 3.5 mark? I'm glad I hedge some with 7.5 puts. However, my calls are worthless now. Damn, I thought they were gonna pop after the cc - even though I knew it was gonna be a 20% chance of it since their history indicated that they go down.

Once again, I've given up on this stock it's POS.

Quote from michaelscott:

Please explain to me how this was a positive conference call:

"In the quarter ended March 31, Syntax-Brillian earned $5.5 million, or 9 cents per share, after reporting a loss of $11.4 million, or 26 cents per share, in the year-ago period."

"Analysts expected profit of 12 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial"

So they missed the analysts estimates.

"Separately, the Tempe, Ariz., company said it plans to offer $150 million in stock and certain shareholders will issue another $22 million in shares"

The float will now soar, dilution.

Tweeter announced today that it might go bankrupt on account of television sales. Circuit City has repeatedly lowered its outlook due to sluggish flat-panel sales. Best Buy is in better shape, but still trading near its 52 week low and sinking day by day.

Link to Circuit City lowered guidance on account of flat panel sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070430/aftermarket_movers.html?.v=1

"Circuit City blamed "substantially" lower sales in April of large flat panel and projection television for the shortfall."

Link to Tweeter article
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070510/earns_tweeter.html?.v=2

"Revenue fell 13 percent to $163.3 million from $186.8 million, hurt by sales declines of 44 percent for projection televisions and 35 percent for plasma televisions. Those declines were partially offset by a 72 percent increase in revenue from liquid crystal display, or LCD, televisions."

Businessweek article on TV sales
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2007/pi20070501_694339.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

Chart of BBY
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBY&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p89077556340

I will eventually be a buyer of CC and BRLC. However, I cant justify it until both their stocks move lower and closer to fire-sale like prices.

In the case of CC, I would not buy it until it reaches 12-13 dollars.

In the case of BRLC, I would not touch it until it reaches 3.5.

History seems to repeat itself for certain stocks. BRLC is a cyclical multi-bagger. In 2004, it was at 7.21 and then it took 4 months for it to violate its 200 moving day average. During those 4 months, the stock price went down about 55%.

In January it hit 11.7 and has come down about 55% and the 200 day MA is right at 6.91. If the price violates the 200 day ma, then history will repeat itself. If you look at a 3 year chart and trace 1.12 with 2.02 then the line hits 3.5. If you calculate that huge head and shoulders on the chart out then the price target is 3.5.

Anyway you look at it, its 3.5 bucks.

I dont see consumers running out to buy new televisions with so much uncertainty in the air. The uncertainty and bearishness is a good sign for the stock market, but a bad sign for television sales.

 

[aaronk321]

Mike.. the 3.5 sounds about right.



Look at todays figures, sales $162MM
Net profit before taxes, $8MM
Taxes at 19% $2.5MM

Net income $5.5

eps based on 60MM outstanding, 9¢

Now double the tax rate $5MM
Net income $3MM

Include dilution of 30MM shares you now have 90MM

EPS 3¢


You can produce more sophisticated models with greater detail but the point is they will be fortunate to earn 25¢ for the year at a multiple of 15X earnings they're a $3.75 stock




-------------------------------------------------------

Anyway you look at it, its 3.5 bucks.

I dont see consumers running out to buy new televisions with so much uncertainty in the air. The uncertainty and bearishness is a good sign for the stock market, but a bad sign for television sales. [/B][/QUOTE]

 

[TM1]

Quote from Tarl_Cabot:Given that in February 2009, everyone in the US will have to buy a new TV (if they don't already have one), the only possible downside is a Global Depression in 2008.

This is an urban myth of sorts; the only thing that will happen is that analog broadcasts will cease, so those that are using an antenna only to recieve local programming will be affected, and all they have to do is subscribe to their local digital cable company and that same old tv will work just fine. I'd venture to say that most people that are using an antenna either don't have the money for a new digital tv anyway, much less an Olevia, or they have no local cable service, in which case a new digital tv still won't help, but satellite service sure will.

 

[flytiger]

Quote from flytiger:

..forget the fundies. The naked shorts know supply is coming out. They'll kill this, knowing they can game the system, and if worse comes to worse, they'll get shares to cover. NYX????

I've lost a ton of money thru the years to these guys, and I've learned some things. I did go against my instincts in IBKR, but not badly.

Listen up. They've got a hook. There is stock coming out. Next, watch for some bad press. YOU CANNOT BEAT THESE GUYS WHEN THEY HAVE THE UPPER HAND, AND THE SECONDARY GIVES THEM THAT EDGE. The pressure, if history is any guide, will now be relentless.

Too many times these companies have ignored what we told them to do. Many of those companies do not exist anymore.

Please be careful.

7.20 - 1.21

Am I the first to quote myself?

 

[michaelscott]

Its true that most likely people will be buying tvs in the United States in 2009, but what about companies like Sony and Sharp?

Why buy a television with the name "Olevia" when you can buy "Sony" or "Sharp"?

Sony, Sharp, Emerson, etc. are all brand names that we know and trust. From my personal experiences, I have been burned everytime I have purchased a little known brand.

So even though people might purchase TVs in 2009, what about the competition? All these brand name companies will undercut Olevia.

My opinion is that BRLC was just another pump/dump stock. Lets face the facts.

 

[stonedinvestor]

Dangerous forecasting out of goals into 08 by company don't know how they can assume those numbers ....

 

[Tarl_Cabot]

Quote from michaelscott:
Sony, Sharp, Emerson, etc. are all brand names that we know and trust. From my personal experiences, I have been burned everytime I have purchased a little known brand.

So even though people might purchase TVs in 2009, what about the competition? All these brand name companies will undercut Olevia.

Emerson is crap, always will be.

Sharp was a no-name brand, they gained market share through advertising. Samsung was a no-name brand, they gained market share through advertising.

Olevia has an extensive deal with ESPN, whereby they are the official TV of ESPN, co-op advertising, etc.

Olevia has more recommendations from Consumer Reports than other TV brand.

They continually undercut Sony, Sharp and Samsung because their costs are lower while continuing to be profitable.

So they missed the analysts estimates.

Google misses analysts estimates. It's just a game. You cannot buy groceries or a car with analyst estimates. Revenues were up 270%. Real financial numbers. Analysts' estimates only affect the stock market game, they have nothing to do with a company's financial health - which is what I am talking about here.

 

[topdown]

There are so much erroneous info on this thread, I thought I would chime in and attempt to set things straight.

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I was saying there is a glut of LCD screens and that this glut could lead to better pricing by bigger name brands, which could try to squeeze Syntax's retail pricing.

All indications are that there will be a SHORTAGE of LCD panels in coming quarters, not a glut. The concern for BRLC was that the bulk of panels would be going to the Tier 1 manufacturers and that BRCL would either not be able to get them at all or would have to pay a premium. In the conference call, the CEO stated they have a buying agreement in place and supply is locked up.

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

BRLCs competitive advantage is pricing. If people have the option of buying a Syntax-Olevia or a Panasonic or Sharp, and the price is close, they'll pick the latter, I believe.

As noted by the Consumer Reports Best Buy Ratings on (3) of the most common sized sets, only the top of the line models by Sony, Sammy, Sharp, etc. were ranked slightly better at a substantially higher cost. Olevia outranked many models of Sammy, Panasonic, Sharp, RCA, etc., etc. All of the reviews gave the Olevia picture a very good or excellent rating. The cost difference is substiantial; i.e $1,200 for an Olevia 42” vs. $3,000 for a Sony 40”. If you choose to spend your $ on brand name regardless of quality, I guess that is your business. Olevia also offers a “7” series model that is available only at high-end specialty retailers that has received glowing reviews from audiophile magazines and would compete with the top of the line models of any manufacturer (in fact 1 magazine uses it as their “reference” which to compare other models).

Quote from michaelscott:


Tweeter announced today that it might go bankrupt on account of television sales. Circuit City has repeatedly lowered its outlook due to sluggish flat-panel sales.
"Circuit City blamed "substantially" lower sales in April of large flat panel and projection television for the shortfall."

Link to Tweeter article


"Revenue fell 13 percent to $163.3 million from $186.8 million, hurt by sales declines of 44 percent for projection televisions and 35 percent for plasma televisions. Those declines were partially offset by a 72 percent increase in revenue from liquid crystal display, or LCD, televisions."

Michael, Michael, Michael, - As another poster said (to you), “It is better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt." (Mark Twain). You really should keep to your chart readings and not speak to what you do not know. Circuit City stated right in their conference call it was a slow down on the large screen (50” plus) TV’s that hurt them – these are not Olevia sizes that they carry. In fact, after the quarter, they increased their Olevia SKU’s and admitted they weren’t prepared for the demand in that size and brand. And your above quote on Tweeter speaks right FOR BRLC – the 72% increase in LCD screens – THAT’S WHAT BRLC SELLS.

Now as far as my reading on the quarter and the Conference Call:

Current Quarter – Just o.k. at best –Although within previously released company guidance, they missed “analyst” revenue by 2.5%, and missed earning by .01 (after tax hit on prior and current quarter). That shouldn’t have had much impact because the…….

Guidance – Fantastic – Growth in every segment and region. Guided 15% higher for the coming quarter as well as for the full fiscal year. Guidance for FY ’08 (starts July 1, ‘07 Stoney), also blew away previous estimates that were already 300% over previous year. This should have more than offset the negativity surrounding the “miss” of the analysts numbers and sent the stock flying, however, the……………………………

Secondary Offering – Killed ‘em – I cannot fathom the reasoning behind announcing this the same day as the quarter / guidance. It seems to me they should have let the guidance soak in for a week or two (let the stock jump, maybe lose a few shorts) and then made the secondary announcement. In announcing now, they just gave a reason and method for the naked shorts to sink their claws in deeper and stay in control. Flytiger is right; this ain’t going nowhere until the illegal short hedgies loose their grip.

Yeah, I took a bit of a hit today, although it was more emotional than fiscal. Bought a bunch at 6.98 and had been selling prior to earnings between 8.50 and 8.71. I held some into earnings thinking we’d see a blowout and a possible squeeze. I’m beginning to think the naked short conspiracy that flytiger is always warning us about is even bigger than I thought. Could Merrill have ulterior motives for underwriting the secondary? You betcha.

 

[flytiger]

Secondary Offering – Killed ‘em – I cannot fathom the reasoning behind announcing this the same day as the quarter / guidance. It seems to me they should have let the guidance soak in for a week or two (let the stock jump, maybe lose a few shorts) and then made the secondary announcement. In announcing now, they just gave a reason and method for the naked shorts to sink their claws in deeper and stay in control. Flytiger is right; this ain’t going nowhere until the illegal short hedgies loose their grip.

Yeah, I took a bit of a hit today, although it was more emotional than fiscal. Bought a bunch at 6.98 and had been selling prior to earnings between 8.50 and 8.71. I held some into earnings thinking we’d see a blowout and a possible squeeze. I’m beginning to think the naked short conspiracy that flytiger is always warning us about is even bigger than I thought. Could Merrill have ulterior motives for underwriting the secondary? You betcha. [/B][/QUOTE]

I understand it's confusing, and nobody wants to hear it, but it's all true, and ten times deeper than I can tell you here. Believe it. How much money did it cost you today? Keep bucking them, and they'll kill you. Take a look at a five minute on OSTK today.. See the cover spike? Wht do you think that's about? A seventy cent spike in five minutes, and then collapse.

Notice all the "hot " stocks people post about are on the sho list? You must pay attention, or you will lose your ass.

I 'll tease you a bit. The BB's dwarf all SHO stocks. Groups of guys are squeezing desks, runing these thinks to four five, even ten baggers. Why do you think they pour it on VG? They can't afford to have it go against them. IBKR is down, and they do it with naked shorting, drawing in more selling, setting off stops. Learn, and learn quickly.

Patrick Byrne says he has 1000 emails that documents the path the Press uses in this process. . Weiss, Greenberg, Norris are just crushing him right now. I should get those emails, and when I do, you will read them here.

 

[michaelscott]

I've been wrong on a few things, but I have been right on this stock. Say what you want, tell me I better keep my mouth shut, but i warned you of what was about to come and it came.

The most bullish thing on Friday was that the price seemed to close over the 200 day simple moving average, its under the 200 day EMA though. The 6.8 area seems pretty strong, but at this point I would not rely on it nor would I trade a stock like BRLC.

From late 2005 to May 2006, the Russell 2000 advanced 27% and BRLC fell from the 7s to the 2s. In 2007, the Russell 2000 is up 6%, but BRLC is way off its highs at 11 dollars.

If the price does not hold 6.8, then you can expect this to go much much lower even if the overall market seems very strong.

The earnings call offered nothing to give this stock an excuse to go higher. One analyst downgraded the stock.

In fact, lets rewind to late 2005 when the stock started to fall from the 7s. At that time, CE Unterberg had upgraded the stock to strong buy and slapped a target price of 9 bucks. These guys have burned more then one analyst in the past.

You might sit there slapping your head laughing wondering how the price of a stock that previously traded at 11 dollars could go to 3.5. Look back at how "Vince" has burned analysts and investors alike time and time again. He has done it twice and every year he recruits a new set of analysts and tv personalities after he burns through them.

Stocks like this are not the way to go right now. I say go with what works and that is stocks like RVBD, IBM and AAPL which have obvious price appreciation.

If this breaks through 6.8, then its going to 3.5. If you are right now staring at a loss, then you might consider just taking that loss (even if the loss is a big one) and funneling your cash into sure plays.

When the Russell 2000 finally does break out, history tells us that BRLC might not follow.