What is happening with BRLC ?

I warned you guys of what was about to come. It is taking place now as we speak. If the stock breaks below 6.8, then it will fall even further.

The prophecy will now play itself out in great detail. The head and shoulders says this will fall to 3.5.

Quote from michaelscott:

This is your last warning. The stock traded exactly to what I have charted. It did not break 8.3 today and came right back down. The next stop is for the high 6s and if it does not hold then it *will fall* past that gap on the chart.

Anything can happen during the earnings call. The only way to stop this chart from playing itself out is for a miracle to happen during the earnings call. Even good numbers wont stop it from trending back down. The numbers need to be way better then expected.

As for the analysts, if the price takes a dive, then they will simply downgrade the stock.

Dont take this gamble, book your profit or take your small loss now.
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The earnings report is outstanding:
Fiscal third quarter revenue of $162.9 million, a 257% increase over last year's comparable quarter.
Fiscal third quarter shipments of approximately 224,000 units, a 233% increase over the prior year comparable quarter.
Increased gross margins by 900 basis points to 18.1% over the prior year period.
Adjusted EBITDA of $15.5 million and $49.2 million for the three and nine months ended March 31, 2007, respectively.
Completed $15.5 million strategic financing.
Announced brand impact results of ongoing ESPN marketing and advertising campaign: Olevia brand awareness in key demographic of males age 18 to 49 increased by 347%, up 33.9 percentage points, and consideration of purchasing an Olevia HDTV increased by 161%, up 18 percentage points.
Renewed and expanded ongoing ESPN marketing and integrated advertising campaign extending through August 2008.
Commenced shipments of Olevia LCD TVs to Target stores, Kmart, and Sears.
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and unlike every other company, they are RAISING GUIDANCE for the rest of the year.

More shares needed to be created, because the float is too small. This helps with the short problem, and makes the stock harder to manipulate. The earnings support a higher market cap.

If initially the price drops, this will allow shorts to cover, and then they will want to go long, if they have two brain cells.

From the financial viewpoint, they say that the one thing limiting their revenue is financing for purchase of raw parts. Due to Consumer Reports rating the TVs "best buys", they can sell more than they have the financing to produce. The stock offering will allow them to increase production, thereby revenue, and thereby market cap, with long-term increase for stock value, assuming normal valuations.

If the stock breaks below 6.8, then it will fall even further.
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Warren Buffett said recently: "If I go to my favorite steak house, and they drop the price to $9, I don't cry that I paid $10 last time, rather I'm happy that I am paying less now."

So, the lower that BRLC goes, the less you will have to pay for it.

Given that in February 2009, everyone in the US will have to buy a new TV (if they don't already have one), the only possible downside is a Global Depression in 2008.
 
What a POS.. Damn, this stock should be trading much higher.
I hope it goes to 3.5 - then my 7.5 puts will make up for some of my losses.

Quote from michaelscott:

I warned you guys of what was about to come. It is taking place now as we speak. If the stock breaks below 6.8, then it will fall even further.

The prophecy will now play itself out in great detail. The head and shoulders says this will fall to 3.5.
More...
 
Quote from Tarl_Cabot:

The earnings report is outstanding:


and unlike every other company, they are RAISING GUIDANCE for the rest of the year.

More shares needed to be created, because the float is too small. This helps with the short problem, and makes the stock harder to manipulate. The earnings support a higher market cap.

If initially the price drops, this will allow shorts to cover, and then they will want to go long, if they have two brain cells.

From the financial viewpoint, they say that the one thing limiting their revenue is financing for purchase of raw parts. Due to Consumer Reports rating the TVs "best buys", they can sell more than they have the financing to produce. The stock offering will allow them to increase production, thereby revenue, and thereby market cap, with long-term increase for stock value, assuming normal valuations.

Warren Buffett said recently: "If I go to my favorite steak house, and they drop the price to $9, I don't cry that I paid $10 last time, rather I'm happy that I am paying less now."

So, the lower that BRLC goes, the less you will have to pay for it.

Given that in February 2009, everyone in the US will have to buy a new TV (if they don't already have one), the only possible downside is a Global Depression in 2008.
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Outstanding post.

My only concern is that BRLC is going to face pricing pressures from larger rivals, because there is an absolute glut of LCD manufacturing. AUO has a ginormous factory shell in China that they are refusing to open, because inventory levels are so high.

BRLCs competitive advantage is pricing. If people have the option of buying a Syntax-Olevia or a Panasonic or Sharp, and the price is close, they'll pick the latter, I believe.

I would pay special attention to BRLCs margins. They need to find ways to increase their margins at a time when larger rivals will be lowering prices by negotiating better pricing with the likes of AUO.
 
Quote from aaronk321:

What a POS.. Damn, this stock should be trading much higher.
I hope it goes to 3.5 - then my 7.5 puts will make up for some of my losses.
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Perhaps Warren Buffett was able to make so much money, because the average IQ of traders is about 80 ??
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Outstanding post.

My only concern is that BRLC is going to face pricing pressures from larger rivals, because there is an absolute glut of LCD manufacturing. AUO has a ginormous factory shell in China that they are refusing to open, because inventory levels are so high.

BRLCs competitive advantage is pricing. If people have the option of buying a Syntax-Olevia or a Panasonic or Sharp, and the price is close, they'll pick the latter, I believe.

I would pay special attention to BRLCs margins. They need to find ways to increase their margins at a time when larger rivals will be lowering prices by negotiating better pricing with the likes of AUO.
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In the conference call, it was mentioned that LCD panel prices have been going up recently. The CEO responded that they have contracts to buy LCD panels and in fact, one supplier recently contacted them to offer them a larger quantity.

By increasing production, they will improve margins, all other factors notwithstanding.
 
Quote from Tarl_Cabot:

In the conference call, it was mentioned that LCD panel prices have been going up recently. The CEO responded that they have contracts to buy LCD panels and in fact, one supplier recently contacted them to offer them a larger quantity.

By increasing production, they will improve margins, all other factors notwithstanding.
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No, I wasn't saying that there was a glut of assembled LCD TVs, Tarl.

I was saying there is a glut of LCD screens and that this glut could lead to better pricing by bigger name brands, which could try to squeeze Syntax's retail pricing.

I will try to find the article where AUO's CEO basically said they are not going to open their new Chinese factory because of the supply glut of the LCD screens that are used in the final production.
 
..forget the fundies. The naked shorts know supply is coming out. They'll kill this, knowing they can game the system, and if worse comes to worse, they'll get shares to cover. NYX????
 
Please explain to me how this was a positive conference call:

"In the quarter ended March 31, Syntax-Brillian earned $5.5 million, or 9 cents per share, after reporting a loss of $11.4 million, or 26 cents per share, in the year-ago period."

"Analysts expected profit of 12 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial"

So they missed the analysts estimates.

"Separately, the Tempe, Ariz., company said it plans to offer $150 million in stock and certain shareholders will issue another $22 million in shares"

The float will now soar, dilution.

Tweeter announced today that it might go bankrupt on account of television sales. Circuit City has repeatedly lowered its outlook due to sluggish flat-panel sales. Best Buy is in better shape, but still trading near its 52 week low and sinking day by day.

Link to Circuit City lowered guidance on account of flat panel sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070430/aftermarket_movers.html?.v=1

"Circuit City blamed "substantially" lower sales in April of large flat panel and projection television for the shortfall."

Link to Tweeter article
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070510/earns_tweeter.html?.v=2

"Revenue fell 13 percent to $163.3 million from $186.8 million, hurt by sales declines of 44 percent for projection televisions and 35 percent for plasma televisions. Those declines were partially offset by a 72 percent increase in revenue from liquid crystal display, or LCD, televisions."

Businessweek article on TV sales
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/may2007/pi20070501_694339.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

Chart of BBY
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBY&p=D&b=1&g=0&id=p89077556340

I will eventually be a buyer of CC and BRLC. However, I cant justify it until both their stocks move lower and closer to fire-sale like prices.

In the case of CC, I would not buy it until it reaches 12-13 dollars.

In the case of BRLC, I would not touch it until it reaches 3.5.

History seems to repeat itself for certain stocks. BRLC is a cyclical multi-bagger. In 2004, it was at 7.21 and then it took 4 months for it to violate its 200 moving day average. During those 4 months, the stock price went down about 55%.

In January it hit 11.7 and has come down about 55% and the 200 day MA is right at 6.91. If the price violates the 200 day ma, then history will repeat itself. If you look at a 3 year chart and trace 1.12 with 2.02 then the line hits 3.5. If you calculate that huge head and shoulders on the chart out then the price target is 3.5.

Anyway you look at it, its 3.5 bucks.

I dont see consumers running out to buy new televisions with so much uncertainty in the air. The uncertainty and bearishness is a good sign for the stock market, but a bad sign for television sales.
 
what is you mumbling about? dilution is good for the company and missing revs.

Quote from Tarl_Cabot:

Perhaps Warren Buffett was able to make so much money, because the average IQ of traders is about 80 ??
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