What is happening with BRLC ?

Quote from michaelscott:

Since there is a credible break off the neckline, then a breakout is about to occur with a target price of the (top of head minus the neckline)+ approx 8.1= about 9.39

If you take the length of the last downward wave (8.15-7.15=94) and then multiply by 1.618 you get 1.52 approximately. That would give a target price of approximately 9.52.

The top Bollinger Band is now at 8.24. The afterhours price has jumped over that level to about 8.3. The price will pull back to just under 8.24 by the morning. This will create another formation, a cup and handle. If we use the cup/handle thesis which is rough. Then the price target would be the right tip of the cup minus the bottom of the cup. I estimate about 1.5. We can roughly assume that the pullback will be about 1/3 to 1/2 the height of the cup which is .5 to 1 buck off of the high in afterhours. Then add 1.5 to the bottom of the handle and you get another target price. Lets say it gets to a high of 8.4 minus 0.5=7.9+1.5= 9.4 target price.

Looking at the chart, the price will encounter resistance at around 9. A/D line and CMO moneyflow show heavy distribution.

Here are the three price targets:

Head and shoulders thesis target price= 9.39
Golden number thesis=9.52
Cup/handle thesis 9.4

Conclusion:

There will be a pullback off of the afterhour highs in the morning due to the top Bollinger Band break. That pullback will be probably to around 7.9, maybe to 7.4-7.5. Traders will be shorting it at the open as it reached over the top Bollinger.

They will cover right before the middle band. So look to go long when the chart forms a v-bottom in the morning. Then ride it back up to 9 dollars and sell at that level.

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Quote from michaelscott:


The pattern since the start of the year resembles a descending triangle which is very bearish. Furthermore, this is your typical ABC correction. A-B is 11.7-7.5= 4.2, 4.2X1.618= 6.7956, 10.01-6.8=3.21

So if we go by the Elliott Wave formula of the ABC downtrend we get a price target of 3.21. C should be a 5 part correction and we will soon be in the downleg.

Then if we look at the gap in July, well, its right around 3 dollars.

The point and figure chart says that this will be a 3 dollar stock in time.

The A/D line suggest distribution.

My technician is telling me that he thinks it will go to 3.

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All I can say is WOW Mr.Scott - You certainly seemed to have TA'd this thing to death. So, from your "reading the chart", we have the following price targets:

3.00
3.21
4.2
6.
7.9
9
9.39
9.4
9.52

Now you certainly seem like a good technician and I am in no way questioning your chart reading abilities, but forgive me, I'm just scratching my head here. My take on fundamental vs. TA is that fundamentals should determine the proper market price over the long term. TA is certainly valid for short term day trading if for no other reason than the fact that there are so many traders basing their trades on the charts. The problem with TA is exactly what you posted. many people looking at the same chart at different scales or time frames can read entirely different things. Add the fact that the Hedgies are manipulating this stock (as is evidenced by the naked short sales), and you can throw it all out the window. I think BRLC is a compelling fundamental growth story which is the reason my most recent purchase was a long term hold.

If anyone is interested in the naked short selling and the detriment it has to our markets, check out the following link. I will warn, it is a long presentation (over an hour).

http://www.businessjive.com/nss/darkside.html

BTW - today's close was $8.40 - I'm sure MS has it covered up there somewhere.
 
That was the most recent quarter'sAR.. They recently got into Target and CC.

Quote from Tarl_Cabot:

So you are suggesting that Target and Circuit City don't pay their bills ? That's where their revenue and receivables comes from...
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When I decide to focus in on a certain equity, then I create a map of short, intermediate and long-term price targets. I also develop a master thesis. The map will change over time and the price targets will change as well...so will the thesis.

I will create a chart of where and when I believe the price will go over time up to a year out. Seasonality factors come into play. Mathamatical factors come into play. Many things come into play.

When all is said and done, then I review the results and see how I could have done better.

When I decide to commit dollars to a stock then I am very intense and exhaustive in my research looking at every possible angle.

Im not playing games, this isnt romper room. Im running a very serious business and Im the CEO. There can be no room for errors.
 
Quote from aaronk321:

Fundamentally speaking.. Look at the AR for BRLC.. they're not getting paid. I own some shares - mainly for a speculative stock. However, I'm kinda concern with their AR and Cash flow. for as much revs as they pulled in their cash flow is fairly shitty.

From google

As of 2006-12-31
Total Receivables, Net 207.19
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They stated in their last conference call the AR issue was primarily from sales in China where typical terms are 120 days+. They acknowledged they needed to shore up financing in order to deal with the cash flow issue. This is not unusual for a small, start-up growing 300% yoy.
 
Quote from michaelscott:
Im running a very serious business and Im the CEO. There can be no room for errors.
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If that's for real, then that answers my perennial question - "What is the source of the money that is won by traders who are consistently beating the market ? "

For example, every one of your statements about the business of BRLC was factually incorrect (probably because they were copied from the claims of the shorts). That's a lot of "errors" already.

But I can't imagine a CEO having time to post on a Forum...
 
Thats where your wrong. My trading business consists of one man and thats me. Im the CEO.

As I said before, I really dont care what BRLC produces or what business model it operates under. They could be producing solar cells, cars or operating a strip club. I dont really care.

Im just interested in trading the stock. If I was interested in doing business with BRLC, then maybe I might care about the fundamentals. I made over 12 grand between NYX (long), BRLC (long) and FCX (short) thats all I care about. I really dont care about copper, dont care about the NYSE and dont care about tvs. I just want the green.

We are not here for investing, but trading. Mr. Fibonacci, Mr. Livermore and Mr. Elliott guide me in my grand pursuit of the green. They are the masters of my universe and what they say goes.

I dont believe Cramer, I don't believe Vince, all I believe is Mr. Fibonacci , Mr. Livermore and Mr. Elliott. There is even a little statue of them by my bedside that I pray to each night before I go to bed.

OOps. I forgot Mr. Bollinger too. Cant forget him.

If you had been praying to them too, then you would have earned some green today. As silly as it sounds, let them be your guide and you will succeed at trading.


Quote from Tarl_Cabot:

If that's for real, then that answers my perennial question - "What is the source of the money that is won by traders who are consistently beating the market ? "

For example, every one of your statements about the business of BRLC was factually incorrect (probably because they were copied from the claims of the shorts). That's a lot of "errors" already.

But I can't imagine a CEO having time to post on a Forum...
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Hello Michael on page 4 of this thread I boldly predicted stonedinvestor


Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 1036


02-24-07 02:21 PM

I would leave a mental trailing stop here at $7.88.
It occurs to me we may have a head and shoulder thing happening with $7.88 being the neckline. If this is broken it would indicate a price potential for BRLC of.... Like $4.50!

So You say $3 I say $4.50 where is the stock & is it time to buy yet?????? ~ stoney
 
Let me demonstrate to you why you shouldnt have goofed off in that high school geometry class.

The 2005 low was 1.12

1.12X1.618= 1.81216

The 2006 low was 2.02.

The 2005 high was 7.21

7.21X1.618= 11.66578

The 2007 high was 11.70.

The 2006 low was 2.02.

2.02X1.618= 3.26836= The future low???


Now watch this.

11.7/1.618= 7.2311

Actual pivot point on January 22nd= 7.5

10.01/1.618= 6.1866

Actual pivot point on March 5th= 6.81

So if the pivot point is going to be 9.5 per the Fibonacci sequence then we will arrive at a future pivot point of 5.87.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio#Disputed_sightings_of_the_golden_ratio

I have attached a few pictures that will demonstrate why the above formula works. Its not college math, but a simple geometry class at the high school level.

If you notice the price points are not exact, but they do have a certain predictive power. Lets see how it works out.



Quote from stonedinvestor:

Hello Michael on page 4 of this thread I boldly predicted stonedinvestor


Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 1036


02-24-07 02:21 PM

I would leave a mental trailing stop here at $7.88.
It occurs to me we may have a head and shoulder thing happening with $7.88 being the neckline. If this is broken it would indicate a price potential for BRLC of.... Like $4.50!

So You say $3 I say $4.50 where is the stock & is it time to buy yet?????? ~ stoney
More...
 

Attachments

Here is the master triangle set.

Right now I am lighting up the candles in front of the statues of Fibonacci and will devote the next few minutes to bowing and praying.
 

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Atta boy Michael may I suggest one " puff " as well for good luck- spiritually speaking of course-
I even do it before a workout and after my seven cups of coffee... Don't worry I'm fine! ~stoney
 
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