What is happening with BRLC ?

One more chart. This is a seperate thesis to validate the others. The Fibonacci retracement chart in reverse shows the possible pivot points to be at 8.67, 9.25 and 9.83. So a 50% retracement to 9.25 seems likely. I would still get out at 9.0.

I have a feeling that this will create another descending triangle on the chart. There is a larger retracement in the works. There is a gap in the chart. Right around 5.85 and I would have to say that it will fill that gap eventually.

There was too much dumping these last few months, Vince sounded too nervous during the interview. They are looking to distribute more shares to the retail sector. I estimate about 125 million in down volume versus about 45 million in up volume. The A/D line and CMF shows a lot of distribution. Then notice how the chart goes up and then surges down. Goes up and then surges down again. This is forming the descending triangle sequence.

Someone with a very large position is trying to exit without tanking the stock or someone is naked shorting this thing to death. Maybe both. Either way, not a bullish pattern.

Buy in on the pullback tommorrow and sell at around 9 dollars. I wouldnt chase it up from there.

Good luck and let me know if this works or doesnt work.
 

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Quote from michaelscott:
Buy in on the pullback tommorrow and sell at around 9 dollars. I wouldnt chase it up from there.
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The average analyst 1y target is 14.17 .
The company is small now, and could be much bigger in a few years.
I bought DISH in the late 90's, and within a few years, it had gone up 1600%.
I'd hate to have sold it after a 10% gain.
PS One thing that the charts won't tell you is that many big institutions refuse to even look at any stocks that are under $10. Once BRLC stabilizes at a price over $10, it may go higher from buyers whose presence is not indicated by any chart of the stock.
 
NEVER trust an analyst. Now let me explain.

These analysts are not always right and often have their own agenda. Let me give you a few examples.

Verasun Energy VSE- The price went to around 15 dollars. Goldman comes out and states sell slapping a price target on it of 12-13 dollars. VSE then goes to 19 dollars in the weeks to come.

Horizon Offshore HOFF- The following analysts came out in January and gave an average target price of 19 dollars:

24-Jan-07 CapitalOne southcoast Initiated Buy
13-Jul-06 Lehman Brothers Initiated Overweight
11-Jul-06 Oppenheimer Initiated Buy
5-Jul-06 Jefferies & Co Initiated Buy

I believe the price was at around 15-16 dollars at the start of the year. Conference call comes and stock tanks to 13 and change.

Western Union-
23-Mar-07 AG Edwards Upgrade Hold Buy
30-Nov-06 Wachovia Initiated Mkt Perform
19-Oct-06 Citigroup Initiated Buy

Average price is 25 dollar price target. The price has been stuck in the mud since last year hovering around 22 dollars.

New Century Financial- Price crashes to 15 dollars. The analysts come out, upgrade the stock. Then price crashes to 1 dollar and change as you know the story.

There are thousands of examples where the analysts come out and say this but the price does that. The only analysts that I might trust are from Needham and Company. I especially would not trust Jeffries or Goldman.

The only thing that I have found to trust on Wall Street is the chart.

As for the story of DISH or any other company, I dont care. I live and die by the chart as that is the only device that will give me the real story.

Quote from Tarl_Cabot:

The average analyst 1y target is 14.17 .
The company is small now, and could be much bigger in a few years.
I bought DISH in the late 90's, and within a few years, it had gone up 1600%.
I'd hate to have sold it after a 10% gain.
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As for the story of DISH or any other company, I dont care. I live and die by the chart as that is the only device that will give me the real story.
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Actually, I agree about the analysts in general, but I cited that merely to give an indication of where the stock is likely to go.

The problem with charts is that they can only tell you about data that is contained in the charts, nothing else. That data is all previous trades of the stock.

In the case of a big Dow stock, like IBM, that data is a good portion of the information that affects what will happen in the future with the stock.

In the case of a small emerging company's stock like BRLC, the past stock transactions have a much smaller effect on the future transactions. As I mentioned, many big institutions don't even notice stocks below $10 (I have that first hand from a big institutional broker).

And many buyers who did not know about the stock, will hear about it from the Cramer show and also from looking at the box of their new Olevia TV. New buyers cannot be represented in a chart, it's physically impossible.

This is why charts are more accurate in predicting down turns than up turns, because all the people who are selling previously bought, and so their existence is part of the past stock data. But not all people buying were previously involved with the stock, and their presence cannot be part of the chart's data.
 
Fundamentally speaking.. Look at the AR for BRLC.. they're not getting paid. I own some shares - mainly for a speculative stock. However, I'm kinda concern with their AR and Cash flow. for as much revs as they pulled in their cash flow is fairly shitty.

From google

As of 2006-12-31
Total Receivables, Net 207.19
 
I know in the clothing world the big Dept stores use power buying to get deals when yes they return all the unsold sh*t. This is probably happening w/ BRLC now.

re:
The top Bollinger Band is now at 8.24. The afterhours price has jumped over that level to about 8.3. The price will pull back to just under 8.24 by the morning. This will create another formation, a cup and handle. If we use the cup/handle thesis which is rough. Then the price target would be the right tip of the cup minus the bottom of the cup. I estimate about 1.5. We can roughly assume that the pullback will be about 1/3 to 1/2 the height of the cup which is .5 to 1 buck off of the high in afterhours. Then add 1.5 to the bottom of the handle and you get another target price. Lets say it gets to a high of 8.4 minus 0.5=7.9+1.5= 9.4 target price.

Looking at the chart, the price will encounter resistance at around 9. A/D line and CMO moneyflow show heavy distribution.

Here are the three price targets:

Head and shoulders thesis target price= 9.39
Golden number thesis=9.52
Cup/handle thesis 9.4

Conclusion:

There will be a pullback off of the afterhour highs in the morning due to the top Bollinger Band break. That pullback will be probably to around 7.9, maybe to 7.4-7.5. Traders will be shorting it at the open as it reached over the top Bollinger.

They will cover right before the middle band. So look to go long when the chart forms a v-bottom in the morning. Then ride it back up to 9 dollars and sell at that level.

Getting all specific and sh*t. If any of this comes true I'm going to have to up my technical game Michael. Are you putting your money where your thoughts are? And was the CEO on TV????????
 
I dont like looking at fundamentals because the market doesnt really look at them. The market trades the way it wants to trades and only the chart can make any sense of it.

However, I can read the financials. The financials show that this company turned in a loss the last 3 years. There is no P in the word P/E. Im not sure why Cramer or the analysts are making such a big deal about a company that continually logs in losses.

Sony, Sharp and the other competitors will eventually undercut Brillian. If I want to buy a tv, its going to be a namebrand. Im no TV expert, but I have always been burned buying non-namebrand electronics.

Its like software. Once there was a company named Borland and lots of others then Microsoft came and wiped them off the map.

However, Im not looking at the losses or cheap televisions that will probably break. Im focused on the chart which tells me whats going on.
 
Quote from michaelscott:

Sony, Sharp and the other competitors will eventually undercut Brillian

However, Im not looking at the losses or cheap televisions that will probably break.
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Okay, you have now revealed yourself to be one of two possibilities: 1) Ignorant 2) Short Basher

Syntax-Brillian has lower costs than Sony, Sharp or Samsung - they cannot be undercut. This is the mainstay of their business model.

The televisions were rated Top Buys in the most recent Consumer Reports. They are not cheap quality, they are recommended by Home Theater reviewers. One of their TVs is currently the number one selling TV at circuitcity.com .

The Revenue is increasing each quarter, and the last quarters revenue is TRIPLE the previous quarter.

The Gross Profit is Positive the last 4 quarters, and every quarter is DOUBLE the previous quarter.

The Net Income is Posiitve the last 2 quarters, every quarter is more than the previous quarter, and the last quarter is TRIPLE the previous quarter.

Constant Revenue Growth, and Constant Earnings Growth.

Small and new company, which has only recently been on the shelves in major retailers.

Im focused on the chart which tells me whats going on.
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I already explained in my previous post, why it is impossible for the chart to be accurate in this case.

PS I'm willing to bet that the total net worth of all Technical Analysts is less than 10% of Warren Buffett.
 
The institutions and hedge funds notice everything. If you notice the chart from June until December, the common surge and pull-back routine in the volume bars is telling. This tells me a player is taking a position.

When I look through the SEC filings there is a list players listed like UBS, Dimensional Fund, Tiger Global, Galleon Management, Federated Kaufman, etc. The players are already here.

If the chart were random, then it would appear as a scatter-shot pattern where the price is 10 dollars one day and then a dollar the next. I will attach a simple chart to demonstrate that with the Fib. retracement chart it can be accurately predicted where the price is headed next. Does that chart appear to have gone against the retracement? The answer is it went exactly with the retracement. Using the simple chart could have made someone here tens of thousands of dollars.

The pattern since the start of the year resembles a descending triangle which is very bearish. Furthermore, this is your typical ABC correction. A-B is 11.7-7.5= 4.2, 4.2X1.618= 6.7956, 10.01-6.8=3.21

So if we go by the Elliott Wave formula of the ABC downtrend we get a price target of 3.21. C should be a 5 part correction and we will soon be in the downleg.

Then if we look at the gap in July, well, its right around 3 dollars.

The point and figure chart says that this will be a 3 dollar stock in time.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?brlc

The A/D line suggest distribution.

Then I could go through other chart patterns to come to the same price target as well.

Im not bashing the stock, but giving you an honest opinion as to what I see in the chart.

As for Warren Buffet, you dont know what he uses. He also hires money managers who he does not control. He holds no meetings with the money managers. Those money managers could be using anything.

If I were to look at this from a money managers perspective then I would have to say that we are in a volatile time of year that doesnt bode well for a stock like this. Iran is taking hostages and Bernanke is on television telling us that the economy is getting worse. We just saw a huge correction back in February and the VIX is running high. Greenspan is on television stating that there is a 35% chance of recession. I look at BRLC and see the high volume selloff and the descending triangle chart. My technician is telling me that he thinks it will go to 3. Is this the best time to get in on such a stock? If your the consumer, are you going to run out and buy a new flat screen?

This might be good for a few quick trades up and down the ABC correction, but I wouldnt establish a long term position until this goes much lower.
 

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