When you write, "rhetoric", do you really mean "borderline blackmail"? Such as threatening to take away pensioner's free bus passes if they vote Remain...or was that just Cameron?
What is going on with volatility
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When you write, "rhetoric", do you really mean "borderline blackmail"? Such as threatening to take away pensioner's free bus passes if they vote Remain...or was that just Cameron?
I am referring to the most recent headlines regarding the NHS and higher taxes. And yes, it sounds like blackmail and I don't like it one bit. And, for the record, previously I have always had a lot of respect for Osborne.
It sounds to me you don't understand VIX nor volatility...
If Vols are vey low, they may well go up while the market rallies... because a big move up is still volatile. VIX is not just a fear gage, it actually represents future expected volatility... also up.
Also, VIX is calculated from the options IV's... which are a bit harder to manipulate then just bidding up futures.
If there's risks ahead (brexit, interest rate hike, Trump for Pres, Japan financing difficulties, South China Sea issues...uncertainty in general), skew in options will rise and therefore VIX as well, even if the market stays flat.
There is no linear relationship between VIX and ES.... while you can use it as a hedge, just must make assumptions on which move in VIX should correspond with ES... like a sudden 3% drop might have bigger impact then a slow 5% slide... or vice versa.
It depends on whether the market expects something to happen.
For instance, after the London bombings the markets closed higher and IV lower...