What is going on with volatility

[benwm]

Non-EU immigrants are a problem as they abuse the system and are a net drain on the system

I don't agree with this...perhaps because as a British national I married someone from a non-EU country? It's quite disheartening every time I return from a travel abroad to see two queues at passport control, one for EU and one for non-EU. Should my wife and I seperate into different lines and hope to meet up again on the other side, or do we need to ask for permission to remain in the same queue every time? And which queue, me in non-EU or her in EU? If this isn't outright racism, it's certainly a form of mild discrimination.

Personally, I consider myself pro Europe and pro immigration, but NOT pro EU membership and NOT pro uncontrolled immigration. For me, the main issue is about sovereignty and ability to govern the UK without being forced into policies that benefit the 27 other EU member states but hurt the UK. Ask yourself, would the other 27 EU member states like to skim some tax off the UK's financial sector? Yes, they would. Would that be of benefit to the UK? No.

There's also the issue of being chained to the slow growth and high unemployment European economies, where in the case of the UK, there are deep, historical relationships with many of today's fastest growing regions, irrespective of the dark side of past British colonialism. So for the EU to impose tariffs and dictate trade policy between the UK and non-EU nations seems nonsensical. Long term, I actually see the UK leaving the EU as a net positive for the economy.

Short term, there may be a hit to GDP, but the currency revaluation that we are already seeing will to a large extent offset the short term possible impact of (higher) tariffs. Even if it takes a little time to remove tariffs with the EU because they want to "punish" the UK for leaving, in the mean time a weaker GBP will keep UK exports competitive. The UK buys more from the EU than vice versa, so after the vote has taken place it is in everyone's interests to remove or keep very low tariffs...once the political posturing has run its course.

Going back to immigration, they key problem is 500+ million EU citizens have free access to the UK, so if (and when) the European economies hit their next bump, or more countries became EU members, then you are powerless to stop these people moving to the UK.

 

[d08]

I don't agree with this...perhaps because as a British national I married someone from a non-EU country? It's quite disheartening every time I return from a travel abroad to see two queues at passport control, one for EU and one for non-EU. Should my wife and I seperate into different lines and hope to meet up again on the other side, or do we need to ask for permission to remain in the same queue every time? And which queue, me in non-EU or her in EU? If this isn't outright racism, it's certainly a form of mild discrimination.

Personally, I consider myself pro Europe and pro immigration, but NOT pro EU membership and NOT pro uncontrolled immigration. For me, the main issue is about sovereignty and ability to govern the UK without being forced into policies that benefit the 27 other EU member states but hurt the UK. Ask yourself, would the other 27 EU member states like to skim some tax off the UK's financial sector? Yes, they would. Would that be of benefit to the UK? No.

There's also the issue of being chained to the slow growth and high unemployment European economies, where in the case of the UK, there are deep, historical relationships with many of today's fastest growing regions, irrespective of the dark side of past British colonialism. So for the EU to impose tariffs and dictate trade policy between the UK and non-EU nations seems nonsensical. Long term, I actually see the UK leaving the EU as a net positive for the economy.

Short term, there may be a hit to GDP, but the currency revaluation that we are already seeing will to a large extent offset the short term possible impact of (higher) tariffs. Even if it takes a little time to remove tariffs with the EU because they want to "punish" the UK for leaving, in the mean time a weaker GBP will keep UK exports competitive. The UK buys more from the EU than vice versa, so after the vote has taken place it is in everyone's interests to remove or keep very low tariffs...once the political posturing has run its course.

Going back to immigration, they key problem is 500+ million EU citizens have free access to the UK, so if (and when) the European economies hit their next bump, or more countries became EU members, then you are powerless to stop these people moving to the UK.

You're giving an anecdotal example. I'm purely talking stats and they are public and I have posted the sources. Non-EU migrants take more than they contribute, that's not my opinion but fact. Whether you agree or not is irrelevant.

Why is that racism? Guess what, many countries have different lines for different statuses. Malaysia has a different line for ASEAN people for example. You have to grow a thicker skin.

Your comments regarding EU unemployment are misplaced as the articles I quoted have proven that this actually BENEFITS the UK economy because many of the unemployed go to UK and work, yes, they do actually work despite what the populist media and politicians tell you. The truth again is in the numbers.

There's less than 1 million people born in the "new EU", your fears are either uninformed or funny depending how to look at it.

Same argument about control. UK can also vote against any policy that will hurt the UK and might benefit another UK member. But you only see one side of the story.

You're not the first UK person to be severely lacking in knowledge on the subject I've come across. It's quite odd given I've never even been to the UK nor would ever work there.

 

[benwm]

Your comments regarding EU unemployment are misplaced

Ok, so you want to talk "stats" - how about 50% youth unemployment in Greece and Spain... or is that what you consider "anecdotal" evidence because it doesn't fit your argument? FWIW, the EU is the slowest growth region in the world after Antarctica. I didn't even mention the prospect of Turkey joining (out of political correctness), but as it stands currently, even without Turkish membership, 500+ million EU citizens have free access to relocate to the UK.

I could pick apart the few points you make with more flesh on the bone but haven't got time. In any case, I don't have a problem with other points of view because people see what they want to see. At the end of the day, it's a political decision for the UK. Re the economy, it's not so black and white as you seem to believe, there will be winners and losers, just like with immigration. The best policy re immigration is case by case, not crudely lumping immigrants into EU and non-EU groups. Otherwise, you might get some highly skilled African or Indian doctor but you are more likely to turn him away from the UK because the non-EU stats say that he'll contribute less than a doctor who happened to be born in the EU.

 

[newwurldmn]

no shit

at least I have plenty of $ in other stuff that can;t be as easily eaten up by manipulators. The real money is in real estate anyway . Volatility has surged more in the past five days than even in January. how much more does volatility have to rise for a 'yes' vote to be priced in? It reeks of a coordinated effort by funds to squeeze out vol. sellers with brexit being used as an excuse. If it's a 'no' vote then we're going to see the biggest IV crush since..idunno 2011. Assuming my account does not go to zero I will never make this mistake again.

If you think its a manipulated market why haven't you cut your position yet?

 

[i960]

Volatility has surged more in the past five days than even in January. how much more does volatility have to rise for a 'yes' vote to be priced in?

Go look at a multiday chart of VX jul-aug or jul-sep. vol got absolutely crushed during the last ramp up. This is a totally legit move and it's due to a combination of real vol and unwinding of crowded short vol positions. I don't see that as manipulation at all honestly.

 

[d08]

Ok, so you want to talk "stats" - how about 50% youth unemployment in Greece and Spain... or is that what you consider "anecdotal" evidence because it doesn't fit your argument? FWIW, the EU is the slowest growth region in the world after Antarctica. I didn't even mention the prospect of Turkey joining (out of political correctness), but as it stands currently, even without Turkish membership, 500+ million EU citizens have free access to relocate to the UK.

I could pick apart the few points you make with more flesh on the bone but haven't got time. In any case, I don't have a problem with other points of view because people see what they want to see. At the end of the day, it's a political decision for the UK. Re the economy, it's not so black and white as you seem to believe, there will be winners and losers, just like with immigration. The best policy re immigration is case by case, not crudely lumping immigrants into EU and non-EU groups. Otherwise, you might get some highly skilled African or Indian doctor but you are more likely to turn him away from the UK because the non-EU stats say that he'll contribute less than a doctor who happened to be born in the EU.

What does the unemployment rate in Greece and Spain matter? These people are going to UK to work and pay taxes, UK wins.

Turkey won't join anytime soon, if ever, there's way too much opposition to that - from Austria to most of Eastern Europe and Greece.

You're talking as if before joining the EU UK was the Switzerland or Norway of Europe, it wasn't - it was doing quite poorly.

More anecdotal evidence about African doctors, they can actually immigrate to the UK and are already doing that but with them comes 10 families of refugees/illegal immigrants/leeches.

It's odd that you want more Africans and Middle Easterners in the UK, as if there already aren't too many.

EU isn't the slowest growing economy either, you simply made that up. Brazil is contracting and Japan is stagnant for example. EU growth for 2016 is projected at 1.6%, not much but not Antarctica.

Funny how in a forum about financial trading, someone is arguing stats and numbers with an opinion. All Brexit supporter arguments I've heard are based on emotions and opinions, never facts. You know what they say about opinions...

 

[tradelosses]

Go look at a multiday chart of VX jul-aug or jul-sep. vol got absolutely crushed during the last ramp up. This is a totally legit move and it's due to a combination of real vol and unwinding of crowded short vol positions. I don't see that as manipulation at all honestly.

the market fell 3% in may but volatility didn't go anywhere near this high. If individual stocks can be manipulated, why can't futures. It's kinda weird to have vix suddenly rally 5% intraday when the market is flat or even rising slightly.

This brexit nonsense is overblown . If it passes probably all the European indexes will fall 5% and US may fall 2.5% and then it may start rallying . There may still be an IV crush

 

[benwm]

You're talking as if before joining the EU UK was the Switzerland or Norway of Europe, it wasn't - it was doing quite poorly..

You're talking about the UK economy 40 years ago? What's that got to do with UK prospects today?

Man, there' so many holes in your posts I don't know where to start. I can't be bothered to dig up statistics about the EU economy and various stats for non EU economies because I know it won't change your own personal biases, and likewise your 1.6% EU growth figure hasn't changed mine.

 

[tradelosses]

If you think its a manipulated market why haven't you cut your position yet?

I did to some extent: I replaced some puts with Nov. 2016 1270 puts to capture the same premium but lower the gamma risk. I pretty much just shifted almost everything by 6 months. Eventually the IV crush will happen when people realize brezxit isn't as bad as realized or it doesn't pass.

 

[benwm]

It's odd that you want more Africans and Middle Easterners in the UK, as if there already aren't too many..

I just re read your post. It seems you regard India as being in the Middle East?

Where did say I wanted more middle easterners in the UK? You're clutching at straws now, so I'm finished with this thread.