"One has to do with personalities and characters. Putin’s behavior shocked many people because they bought into his image as a grand master of intricate policy maneuvers, which assumes intentionality, adroitness, and cunning. A more accurate judgment followed from saying to oneself: This is an aging dictator, who after 20 years of absolute power gets no pushback; who is paranoid, dismissive, and brutal; who has physically isolated himself from other people (particularly in the past two years) and surrounded himself with flunkies. Most important, he is someone who has deteriorated both physically and—as seen in his delivery of rambling, querulous speeches—mentally."
Cometh the Hour, Cometh the Man
Why did so many observers misjudge Putin and Zelensky?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-ukraine-invasion-military-strategy/622956/
