What is behind rise in price of oil?

Quote from travelingtrader:

if prices were determined by producers and consumers at the negotiating table prices would be 1/3 to 1/5 of what they are today.
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If prices were "1/3 to 1/5 of what they are today" we would lose roughly half the supply of oil.
 
Quote from Random.Capital:

If prices were "1/3 to 1/5 of what they are today" we would lose roughly half the supply of oil.
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Didn't happen in January 2009.

Production costs for the biggest producers are probably close to nothing.
 
Quote from travelingtrader:

Didn't happen in January 2009.
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Yes, it did, all kinds of supply was in the process of being mothballed. "Fortunately" prices didn't stay down long, and the process was interrupted.
 
Quote from travelingtrader:

Production costs for the biggest producers are probably close to nothing.
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Is your entire view of the energy industry just a guess?
 
Quote from Quickless:

It is hard to believe that there are not, to the second, information about the supply and demand for oil. Also prior price action should be able to provide some measure for expected price change given a change in a certain supply or demand factor.

And yet one always gets the impression that the price of oil just falls from the sky and no one knows what is responsible for change.

It is time to pin down exactly who, what, where, when, ... is responsible for the change in oil prices. Chances are good there is a small group of people somewhere causing this economic uncertainty.
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As a market trader, is it beneficial to be concerned about "who" or "why"?

When you come up with a fundamental explanation to fade price action in a big way, you might be rewarded with a home run.... you also face the risk of ruin should you be wrong. Which do you think occurs more often?
 
The Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, SNB...etc. The world's major central banks are flooding all markets with money. Where do you think it's going to go?
 
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