What is a chance that Monday is down?
- Thread starter noddyboy
- Start date
ouch, this place has turned to piss. No one has a clue how the mkt works. If I were a betting man (and I am) we go south.
just like the summer of '87, credit spreads continue to widen and liquidity is starting to dry up...........
back then, junk bonds began to crater as the Fed. raised rates, only this time the credit market junk is levered 15 to 1....
this aint gonna get fixed anytime soon, and when it comes, it will be most distasteful....
back then, junk bonds began to crater as the Fed. raised rates, only this time the credit market junk is levered 15 to 1....
this aint gonna get fixed anytime soon, and when it comes, it will be most distasteful....
the only people who care where we open on monday are the cheerleaders. we TRADE. they don't
Some contrarian view that China is not yet at its peak?
The boiling point
Jun 21st 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
How does China's bubble compare with previous financial manias?
ALAN GREENSPAN, the former chairman of America's Federal Reserve, always insisted when in office that it was extremely hard to spot bubbles before they had actually burst. This, he said, is one reason why policymakers should never try to prick them. Today, however, he seems to have no doubts that China's stockmarket is bubbling over. He recently declared that Chinese share prices were âclearly unsustainableâ, with a risk of a âdramatic contractionâ.
It is curious that China's bubble seems so blindingly obvious to Mr Greenspan and so many other Americans who remained in denial about their own dotcom mania right to the end. For according to The Economist's âBubble guideâ (see chart), China's recent share-price boom is still relatively modest compared with the giants of history. The chart plots the performance of Chinese share prices over the past five years against the three great bubbles of the 20th century: Wall Street in the 1920s, Japan in the 1980s and America's NASDAQ in the 1990s. The NASDAQ composite index saw a gain of more than 500% from 1995 to early 2000. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped by 300% from 1984 to 1989. The Shanghai A-share index, having recovered most of its plunge in late May, shows a gain of about only 160% over the past five years.
Moreover, Chinese A-shares now have an average price-earnings (p/e) ratio of around 45. At their peaks, the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei 225 in 1989 and the NASDAQ at the start of 2000 were both well over 100. This suggests that Chinese share prices could have much further to climb before the bubble burstsâunless China's policymakers are braver than Mr Greenspan and take bolder action to dampen the market now.
The boiling point
Jun 21st 2007 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition
How does China's bubble compare with previous financial manias?
ALAN GREENSPAN, the former chairman of America's Federal Reserve, always insisted when in office that it was extremely hard to spot bubbles before they had actually burst. This, he said, is one reason why policymakers should never try to prick them. Today, however, he seems to have no doubts that China's stockmarket is bubbling over. He recently declared that Chinese share prices were âclearly unsustainableâ, with a risk of a âdramatic contractionâ.
It is curious that China's bubble seems so blindingly obvious to Mr Greenspan and so many other Americans who remained in denial about their own dotcom mania right to the end. For according to The Economist's âBubble guideâ (see chart), China's recent share-price boom is still relatively modest compared with the giants of history. The chart plots the performance of Chinese share prices over the past five years against the three great bubbles of the 20th century: Wall Street in the 1920s, Japan in the 1980s and America's NASDAQ in the 1990s. The NASDAQ composite index saw a gain of more than 500% from 1995 to early 2000. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped by 300% from 1984 to 1989. The Shanghai A-share index, having recovered most of its plunge in late May, shows a gain of about only 160% over the past five years.
Moreover, Chinese A-shares now have an average price-earnings (p/e) ratio of around 45. At their peaks, the average p/e ratio of the Nikkei 225 in 1989 and the NASDAQ at the start of 2000 were both well over 100. This suggests that Chinese share prices could have much further to climb before the bubble burstsâunless China's policymakers are braver than Mr Greenspan and take bolder action to dampen the market now.
I was right, again! Geez, it's like I'm cursed 