What if...
- Thread starter romik
- Start date
easier said than done 
easier said than done
Buy low, sell high, find a trigger to point to price reversals, know when not to trade.
Amen. That's one of the cardinal rules of trading. -- Most traders and investors are playing the roulette wheel instead,
...betting on a color...and they wonder why they can't win in the end.
If you look at any setup that paid out of 3/1, I bet you the winning rate will be 1/3.
Applying commission and slippage, you will loss. There is no different compare to why you can't win roulette in long term in any casino due to the excess numbers (zero) which is equivalent to slippage & commissio in trading.
Casino will try to keep you to stay in casino floor for longer time by offering nice food & comfort location, as the odd is on their side in long term.
Brokerage & Institution try to keep retail traders in longer time by continuing selling dreams( TA, success story from their star trader without proof, trading forum.. Opps), as the odd is on their side in long term.
I seldom loss in roulette in my each visit to casino, try to figure this out yourself.
How do you establish that one?
I think if you a younger trader and IF you thinking of day trading ES-you shouldn't, going for longer profits, but once you have gained a good amount of experience, your losing percentages goes down as your targets become less, thereby you can risk less by averaging down and make more. There is always going to be trade offs, but an idea of getting 3 to 1 IMO is worthless. With most swings in ES is eight points and most trade trend to get 3 to 1, waiting for a trend to first develop is going to kill off 3 points of the swing and I don't know many traders risking one point and being very successful at it and then get 3 points, cause if you risk much more than that, can be pushing the eight point average in the swing. Maybe trading like Nasdaq- 21 point swing or Crude Oil- 91 tick swing. But like the currencies use to be awesome day trading markets and those have turned to be more choppy than offering trend trades. To get 3 to 1, some markets are just too difficult cause so few opportunities to get longer trades. Long term commodities much different as you have to be going for much bigger reward to risk cause you staying in overnite and longer duration.
I grew up in one side of family where there was much sports betting, I learned risk early and in days of Blackjack with one deck shoe was only edge in gaming until Video poker came out with 4800 to 1 for Royal flush. So playing one deck shoe Blackjack, again once you got good you had a edge over the house of 53% to 47%, that little 6% meant difference of making a living and breaking even, so long as casinos allowed you to play. Casinos got smart eventually and switched to six deck shoe where unless you got partners and software, very hard to do in one's head. Casinos are very smart folks, they will not produce a game unless bottom line makes min of 2.5% edge per hand. Have lady friend in Vegas is Pro Video player, 19 of 21 years of making $100k plus and 2 years of losing small, averages 500 hands an hour at $100 a hand, she makes her money two ways, getting the 3-4 Royal Flushes per year and points that go on her card you sign up for at every casino that redeemed for vacations, gifts you sell, on ebay. She eats for free 365 days of the year and takes friends/family, wins few cars each year but takes the money. But it is a life where you lose so much of the time.
But I don't know of anyone who averages 3 to 1 that been day trading a good length of time. And certainly don't get 1 out 3 wins of full target.