what if this is all a conspiracy?

[Grantx]

it's a coin toss whether it's going up or down next

So true. People absolutely hate hearing it though. Maybe it's an ego defense mechanism or something? Facing the fact that all your effort and hard work only ever amounts to a coin flip is just too hard to come to terms with I guess.

 

[Fonz]

...Elite traders

 

[virtusa]

it's a coin toss whether it's going up or down next.

So you are a "trader" since 2005 and still make no money? That's logical if you think it is a coin toss. Because after so many years you still found no other answer.
If people don't understand what is happening, it means they don't get the logic of these events. In other words they don't have the knowledge to understand what happens. There are patterns that repeat all the time. It took me more than 10 years to see that, but I saw it finally. You are still "blind".

A lot of people confuse a coin toss with their own lack of knowledge. And these people have problems with their ego. Not the real trader, as he doesn't care about his ego anymore.

 

[themickey]

If you were a day trader (which I'm not) I would assume that daily price move direction of each individual instrument you were tracking, you'd have a reasonable idea on where it was heading for the day, you'd know this due to knowing mkt behaviour, ie you'd have your own pet 'indicators' which was indicating the directional bias.

For longer term traders, especially those holding multiple positions, they wouldn't know what direction each individual instrument was headed for the day because its not important.
The longer the time horizon of trades, the less detail is required to study the micro moves.

 

[Nobert]

what if the institutions created
"trading education" and books and the market trends and patterns so that retail investors can be more predictable in their behavior and easier to manipulate?

millions of unpredictable investors would be impossible to control and sway in one direction because they would not react to "known patterns" but if you teach investors to spot same patterns and react to them in a same way its cheeze for institutions since they have resources and influence market.
similar to people who belive in horoscope are affected by the position of uranus in relation to a pack of dolphins in the ocean at this moment and those who dont belive in that are not very much affected by the positioning of the planets in our solar system

Question everything.

Even if you miss, at least one is thinking with the head of his own. Noneless, remain open to the very opposite ideas & able to change your beliefs in a flash, once the solid facts are being presented.

 

[Bad_Badness]

Your conspiracy theory IS the conspiracy.

 

[smallfil]

Eh, skip the sophistry and phony high-mindedness and show proof TA works. I'm talking years of producing alpha real-time in at least one full market cycle of a bull/bear/sideways markets.

To some degree, technical analysis works. However, there is such a thing as a failure rate. No chart pattern works 100% of the time. Thomas Bulkowski in his book on chart patterns studied the chart patterns and studied the success rates, usually 50% at most, a lot of times, its value is having a structure of when to get in and out of trades. Nobody wins 100% of the time. A better approach is trading the long term trends. That is where the monies are.

 

[KCalhoun]

The two most important things I found about ta:

- using range and volatility are the most important things to consider, and

- using simple chart patterns and indicators is a complete epic fail; you need to combine it with market internals (vix, trin, in vs out day) and risk management. Also expect every breakout will be a false breakout and therefore use entries that are not obvious from horizontal support and resistance "dumb money" lines

Remember always, the math is more important than the chart patterns

 

[MKTrader]

So you are a "trader" since 2005 and still make no money? That's logical if you think it is a coin toss. Because after so many years you still found no other answer.
If people don't understand what is happening, it means they don't get the logic of these events. In other words they don't have the knowledge to understand what happens. There are patterns that repeat all the time. It took me more than 10 years to see that, but I saw it finally. You are still "blind".

A lot of people confuse a coin toss with their own lack of knowledge. And these people have problems with their ego. Not the real trader, as he doesn't care about his ego anymore.

You're assuming I'm a directional trader who relies solely on TA. Poor assumption. And since you, oh enlightened one, have such great sight to see TA patterns, let's see some account statements or other proof. Or are you another ET'er with nothing but hot air to back your claims?

 

[virtusa]

it's a coin toss whether it's going up or down next.

You're assuming I'm a directional trader who relies solely on TA. Poor assumption. And since you, oh enlightened one, have such great sight to see TA patterns, let's see some account statements or other proof. Or are you another ET'er with nothing but hot air to back your claims?

I don't assume that you are a directional trader who relies solely on TA aone, you use coin tosses too. LOL.
You have no clue. That's not an assumption that a fact based on and confirmed by your statement.
I don't use TA and I am not going to tell you how I see patterns.
I am happy with people who see coin tosses, makes it easier for me to make money.