what if this is all a conspiracy?

[kmiklas]

i knew that so i waited an extra week to post this to sabotage your projections

That's OK. Although slightly to the right, statistically, your response time still fell within the first standard deviation on a normal distribution in our primary model.

Based on this discussion, our projections indicate that you will set up some contrarian trades this week. We've already contacted appropriate parties to move prices according to mainstream news.

You will then think, once again, that you are consistently trading at the wrong time.

 

[Overnight]

i knew that so i waited an extra week to post this to sabotage your projections

Oh snap.

 

[MKTrader]

Isn't that what is happening already, in a sense?

In TA, folks are taught to recognize patterns. For example, a DT. So when the DT starts forming, and all the traders react the same way by selling right where the DT would be formed, it becomes a self-fulfilling pattern. The DT forms because many many traders will believe it will form there. So they make it happen by their own actions.

And then trading continues and it bounces down. As it goes back up to that self-imposed resistance line again? Uh oh, could be a Triple-top forming! Well, let's believe it is going to happen, so let's all sell where the TT is forming.

Viola'! A TT has formed, and the resistance line has gained strength. Magic!

Look at round numbers (say S&P at 4000) or major Fibonacci levels (like 62% between a long term high and low point). Prices often stall there, and TA traders scream "See, we told you this stuff works!" Okay, probably because so many people put stops or limit orders in those areas. But I've yet to see anyone consistently profit from this. Are we at resistance? Or support from a prior price swing? Is this a real breakout or a fake one? Or maybe we get failed breakouts in both directions followed by more stalling...what then? Predicting price will stall at some major level and making money are two different things. Whether gold is at exactly $1500 or something random like $1732.52, it's a coin toss whether it's going up or down next.

 

[TheBigShort]

Isn't that what is happening already, in a sense?

In TA, folks are taught to recognize patterns. For example, a DT. So when the DT starts forming, and all the traders react the same way by selling right where the DT would be formed, it becomes a self-fulfilling pattern. The DT forms because many many traders will believe it will form there. So they make it happen by their own actions.

And then trading continues and it bounces down. As it goes back up to that self-imposed resistance line again? Uh oh, could be a Triple-top forming! Well, let's believe it is going to happen, so let's all sell where the TT is forming.

Viola'! A TT has formed, and the resistance line has gained strength. Magic!

Subjective TA being self-fulfilling is talked about quite often. If you take a step back and try to play out a few toy examples in your head or on paper you will quickly realize it is not the case. I encourage you to try this but make sure there are not infinite fills at the levels you are calling support/resistance. See how players have to change their strategy when they get bigger in size or start learning how the other participants react.

There is a Yale game theory video that does a great job at explaining this (posted below).

To relate it to your example, if I know everyone is going to buy at the support and there is not infinite liquidity at that level, I am going to buy before we reach support. And if you know im going to buy before support, guess what you are going to do? Buy before I buy!

So if the market truly traded on subjective TA pattern recognition, where everyone knew the key patterns, those levels would actually never get hit.

Watch the video from 35:25.

 

[guest_trader_1]

TA books exist for the very same reason that other books exist, because people buy them. You can add to this group topics like astrology , self-help, religion, politics and any topic that can be made up. For the same reason people believe there is some kind of a magical entity that will save them when they die, they believe there are secret patterns in charts waiting to be discovered.

Sadly, randomness will reveal the truth sooner or later.

 

[VEGASDESERT]

OP actually got likes with that post, which makes me sad that my likes are no longer
meaningful.

 

[virtusa]

OP actually got likes with that post, which makes me sad that my likes are no longer
meaningful.

certainly a conspiracy

 

[virtusa]

what if the institutions created
"trading education" and books and the market trends and patterns so that retail investors can be more predictable in their behavior and easier to manipulate?

millions of unpredictable investors would be impossible to control and sway in one direction because they would not react to "known patterns" but if you teach investors to spot same patterns and react to them in a same way its cheeze for institutions since they have resources and influence market.
similar to people who belive in horoscope are affected by the position of uranus in relation to a pack of dolphins in the ocean at this moment and those who dont belive in that are not very much affected by the positioning of the planets in our solar system

The fact that you don't understand what is happening does not mean it is a conspiracy. Might also be a lack of knowledge from your side.

 

[murray t turtle]

what if the institutions created
"trading education" and books and the market trends and patterns so that retail investors can be more predictable in their behavior and easier to manipulate?

%%
Its posssible + some of that has happened for many years;
Sell SEPT, sell @ round numbers/LOL.
NOT really a prediction.BUT with exception of opening big gaps, people follow elephants + turtles , lions more than the other way ...................................................................

 

[MKTrader]

Subjective TA being self-fulfilling is talked about quite often. If you take a step back and try to play out a few toy examples in your head or on paper you will quickly realize it is not the case. I encourage you to try this but make sure there are not infinite fills at the levels you are calling support/resistance. See how players have to change their strategy when they get bigger in size or start learning how the other participants react.

There is a Yale game theory video that does a great job at explaining this (posted below).

To relate it to your example, if I know everyone is going to buy at the support and there is not infinite liquidity at that level, I am going to buy before we reach support. And if you know im going to buy before support, guess what you are going to do? Buy before I buy!

So if the market truly traded on subjective TA pattern recognition, where everyone knew the key patterns, those levels would actually never get hit.

Watch the video from 35:25.

Eh, skip the sophistry and phony high-mindedness and show proof TA works. I'm talking years of producing alpha real-time in at least one full market cycle of a bull/bear/sideways markets.