I'm sure glad you all are traders and not intelligence analysts for your respective countries... Civilization would have collapsed!
A fundamental reality of international relations is that decisions are made by the powerful, regardless of the efforts by some nations and organizations to create a framework and rules that all nations should abide by. The UN, the World Court, international law regulating one thing or another... These and others are meant for nations to abide by consensus rules or face consequences, from benign protest to military intervention. Note, the most powerful nations have the luxury or, rather, the power to disregard consensus rules. From North Korea's repeated threat to anihilate anyone they see as enemy, to China's refusal to abide by the decisions on international law of the seas, to the US refusal to abide by decisions of the World Court, some nations have the power to withstand sanctions that most don't.
While these constructs were primarily created and enforced by yesterday's colonial powers, local populations sometimes were able to assert their power to preserve their authority. Taiwan, for example, was originally populated by small indigenous tribes, then assimilated with coastal Chinese ethnic groups, then invaded by western powers (Dutch), eventually controlled by Portuguese (Formosa), then Japanese and finally by the retreating armies and supporters of Chiang Kai Chek's Nationalist Party. The point is, Taiwan belonged to whomever managed to assert their authority over the island. That's what Chiang Kai Chek did, creating a dictatorship and calling Taiwan the Republic of China, as opposed to China's communist People's Republic of China.
Fifty years later, Taiwan becomes a democracy while China remains a communist dictatorship. Taiwan is influenced by 2 political ideals, one from the so called original people who wish it to become independent, and the other from the Chinese diaspora who continues to look towards China and unity without the CCP. It was under the unification party's run that Taiwan based companies established factories in China, hoping that economic prosperity would diminish political differences. But the pro independence party eventually won future elections and triggered China's ire and threats of invasion. The point here is, not all people of Taiwan want independence and a solid minority would probably support an invasion and commit treason should the communists invade. That is probably what keeps military intelligence awake at night in Taipei more so than an invasion.
China, on the other hand, is at a convergence of many different issues. Its population dramatic decline is real and will be cut in half within 50 years. Its economy is still export dominant despite efforts to focus on domestic consumption. Its military is outsized and, like in the US, the influence of their military industrial complex is now powerful and restless. The population of China is increasingly vocal about abuses of the local and regional coorupt CCP party reps who flee the country with their loot when they can. Finally, Xi made himself president for life and intends to make his mark on Chinese history. He knows his window of opportunity is closing, but he doesn't want to be responsible for the collapse of the Communist party should China finds itself in a Ukraine like war. And the CCP will disappear him as soon as signs of failure threaten the party's control of China. Pressure is racheting up and the real challenge for the world is if China threatens to bomb nations that help protect Taiwan from an invasion. The threat would be mutual but only the US and Japan have missiles capable of inflicting damage to China. Maybe Australia has US covertly supplied missiles installations. The point is that an attack on Taiwan would certainly trigger a response from local US forces and possibly Australia. The next risk is a regional escalation, with Southeast Asian nations contributing their forces to protect Taiwan. The next level escalation is China retaliating against allied forces on land which could trigger a global conflict. But, as stated before, any escalation beyond a relatively quick invasion and control of Taiwan by communist forces would decrease Xi's survival chances. The CCP is much more powerful than Putin's support group and would have no qualm hanging Xi, then apologize to the world for his misdirection and promise to rebuild whatever destruction they're responsible for. Good business, no?
