What Has Stoney Done For You?

Quote from MarketMasher:

I have a hard time with the fundamental stuff, which is why Stoney's analysis is interesting. I'm a bit thick on that kind of stuff and always found it hard to grasp.

As for attitude, he comes across pretty laid-back (though I guess that is all relative). Those of us who know little always try to keep an open mind... (Hell, I thought the market would drop last week.)

As for CAVM, it may still have some umpf left in it. The problem I have always had is subjectively being able to tell exactly when it's umpf has deserted it.

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Don't worry about a thing, MM. :) Just keep doing what you're doing. And why shouldn't anybody read Stoney's stuff? I highly recommend Stoney as a sound fundamental analyst. He does good work. :)

Besides everything else, I like Stoney. :D

But he and I have an ongoing bet/battle. Its between just him and me. This is between a technician and a fundamental analyst. The age old battle will be solved here conclusively. And he's going to get hammered royally. Count on it.

Hide and watch! :) :D :D
 
hey all I'm a little toned down today because the Giants got their ass kicked, my old best friend who's got my dog's sister has been told she has a month to live and his freaking out is bringing my own fears about Clyde (my dog) to the surface-- when he dies I'm going to lose mental control I know it. Also I got a Mod reprimand for posting on a sub 1 mil vol stk or over $5-- usually the impolite nature of the note would of thrown me into a rage-- today I just agree and move on.

I just finished all my research and once again I'm coming towards one of these heavy metal plays... there's been a whole bunch lately. Friday GSM Global Specialty Metals had a strong report. i have been charting and watching the name a bit. A cursory look at GSM will show a very nice chart indeed. For me this is a buy @ $13.00 area with support at $12.75, pretty tight trade.

here's a chart from the internet-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GSM&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p08560128820&a=208628958

Some people like to use ' Replacement Cost ' as a basis for investing. It presents barriers to entry. If nothing else it can help you find a support & value level. GSM has nine plants that makes silicon metal. Their US plants (4) are some of the lowest cost plants in the world. The replacement value for these plants is estimated at $22+ a share. GSM giant furnaces cost $100 mln to build- they have 17!

Never too good to have concentrated customers and we do have a small problem here. Two Chemical co's make up 20% of sales. A bet on this company is a bet on Silicone! (and a bet on Owens Corning and Wacker.) Tracking silicon pricing might be tough, I have no idea where to look in the paper. As I understand it the price now is low heading into a strong recovery phase which I hope to learn more about by reading the conference call today. It seems we could be catching one of these powerhouse companies that are worth $35 at the right time for a 1-2 year trade.

In scrolling the internet I came up with a Merdith Witney Roundtable type thing from Barons-

Barron's:

What is cheap enough now?

Globe Specialty Metals [GSM] manufactures silicon metal and silicon alloys. It has four of the lowest-costs plants in the world. Silicon metal is made by smelting quartz and a special grade of coal. It is used in the aluminum industry to improve castability and strength. It is used in the chemical industry to make silicone, which is used in shampoos, toothpaste, plastic, solar panels and other products.

What, besides the products, do you like about the company?

The industry grows at GDP plus 3%. It is partly driven by the increased use of aluminum in cars, to make them more fuel-efficient. GSM came public in July 2009 at 7 a share. The stock is 11 now. The financials are confusing, due to a multitude of issues. Prices for silicon metals and alloys are rising due to the uptick in the economy and the growth in the developing countries.

Significant electricity shortages and cost increases have been experienced by competitors in China and Venezuela, so there is a shortage of the material now.

By January 2011 a lot of the noise will be out of the earnings. The current spot-market price for silicon is $1.45 a pound, up from about $1.20 earlier this year. If the price stays there, GSM will earn about $1.20 a share and produce after-tax free cash flow of $1.30 a share. It has $2 a share in net cash. If it traded at 10 times free cash flow, plus the $2 in cash, the stock would be 15. The company has a market share of more than 50% in the U.S. Its costs are variable, so even in tough markets it stays in the black. It has an amazing management team, with a knack for doing brilliant acquisitions, and a strong balance sheet.

Silicon-metal prices would need to get to at least $2.20 to make it worth adding capacity. If the metal sells for $2 a pound, GSM would be able to earn north of $3 a share. At $2.20 a pound, it could earn about $3.70 a share. Prices should get to $2 sometime in the next few years, assuming there is growth in the world economies. Our near-term price target for GSM is 15 to 17 a share, but our longer-term target is 35.

>>>> So GSM is my new stock of the week to do work on.

Watching- The Indian internets have been on a tear the last 5 days. REDF especially so. Buyout rumor? I'm not sure, more likely the awesome leverage of these hideous ETF's- the flow is big into India now and these few internet stock have a big weight in the telecommunication/ internet groupings. REDF has really zoomed the last few days and is smack into resistance @ $4.50 so lets watch it...

The other stk I'm watching is EXAS. Exact Sciences but it's a not a strong willed watch, I know the story well and the risks I've already weighed this baby bio vs DCTH and went with Delcath...

JKS- That Solar stock

.... and I'm afraid that's it. This week perhaps it's quality over quantity!

..... Today we have a town hall meeting with Obama! There's a lot of pressure building to extend the tax cuts to everyone... CNBC is creating this pressure by endlessly citing surveys by supposed poor folks agreeing that rich folks need a tax cut extension. You can obviously spin these polls but when you can't even get approval for socking it to the rich, you know you're going the wrong direction. Some clarity here would ignite the market. And I bet pollsters have told the President if he could boost the market from the bully pulpit, now would be a good time to do it heading into mid term elections. Alternately we could dive after the meeting if Obama doesn't throw a rose or two to investors.

.... studies have shown as we approach these elections the market should flatline, so the hope this week is that we can get a little ' tax clarity- No MORE TAXES after this one raise!!!! Type talk TODAYso we can run more before we start focusing on these elections. In the month following elections what we should expect-- If we have a split gov when nothing gets done-- the ' stalemate ' markets rally on average 5% following the election, so we have that to look forward to in Nov/December. ~stoney
 
Hi guys things are moving fast today.

1) I noticed a $4 top to bottom slide in UFS. This name has been good to us twice this year at ET so why not a third? The sell off it turns out is somewhat based on industry comments out yesterday. It seems UFS is still well thought of but these type of commodity like stks move in unison. This morning it was down a bit again and I called in about it. I'm in a bit at $60.50 area but I'm looking into some Chinese pricing / controlling type stuff before going all out. It's bouncing hard so it may turn out as a daytade. I'd rather own it cause it's above it's 200 & 50.

2) I've sold Martek. MATK. This trade did not work out about a $2.50 loss.

3) I'm hovering over the above described GSM. It's about right for plucking.

The market is at a point where we kind of forgot earnings pre warnings do occasionally come in, so the threat of leveling out right now is very large. The market was looking for tax clarity and for an upbeat assessment of the future from the President and all they got was a promise to be nicer.

I'm starting to find some entry prices on some names in a pull back. Once things get going to the upside it's always good to do this. Strong stocks like

JKS-- that solar play @ $28 level . Now $30.

EXAS-- the poop check guys @ $6.00. Now $6.55 and climbing

REDF-- The Indian internet guys @ 4.00. Now $ 5.34 and UP 10%!!!! (I've basically watched this one walk away since $4.19. That's the problem with actually charting on paper by the time you're done and everything is pretty the stock is gone.)

IDT-- New name we had on the list before. IBD darling. pre paid phone cards- @$17.00. Now $17.97

My one possible sell decision that I'm struggling with is SPRD. We have a darn nice gain and that could be taken-- I'm doing channel analysis and not getting very far-- it probably will top out at $15.00. It's $13.40 now.

A flip of SPRD into REDF on a pullback might make the most sense.

DCTH presents at JMP next Tues I believe. make sure you're locked and loaded. I don't think they will be able to speak again after that. I got my accupuncturest into the name! The funny thing is he's heard of the name through another Dr. Dr's aren't good investors but there is a " DNDN " aspect to this name. The potential is so large especially when you include the chemo washing effect... if this goes off well, I'll have given a huge winner to ET. Let's hope. ~stoney
 
MEMO FROM MY MIND DEPT.

re- penny stks/ pink sheets

Folks I am doing something risky today.

As always I have thoroughly researched the situation and I've been up since 4:30 in the morning working. ET has a policy that stks must be $5 or trade a million shares.
This stk is only $1.20. I would argue that since this stock is an ADR of sorts and trades in Australia at a higher price it really is over $5! and it DOES have a MARKET CAP OF $2 BILLION now... Morgan Stanley owns 13% and JP Morgan upgraded this morning overseas... I've done my part but still I will be rudely treated by a Mod if I share my move today with you all for free.

The fact is the risk is mine. I only talk about what I buy. That's enough! jesus, I should be able to say hey This RARE EARTH MANIA IS NOT GOING AWAY! NEWS TODAY IN THE TIMES CONTINUES THE DRUMBEAT... Congress will act soon and players in this space are going to move. The popular fast money play is REE. I'm wary there of a raise of funds. The largest US mine is owned by Molycorp Minerals, this one will get the focus of the US attention... but their mine is rather not " heavy " enough in it's minerals. There is a company in Australia that not only has the FIRST MINE that will come on line in 2nd half of NEXT year but their mine has the best heavy elements. China wanted this mine badly and threw $400 mln there way the deal was scuttled and the company already raised those funds elsewhere... here we don't have the capital raise problem AND we have the better elements to mine.

The stock has already doubled since July!

Now the last $1 stk I was yelled at for giving out did very well. I don't run around buying low cost names, in fact i seldom ever do. I won't give out the symbols here to keep within the restrictions but I want you all to know I'm buying into the Mt. Weld mine first thing this morning.~ stoney
 
Of course REE exploded! I just have to stick with my research here I have my guys looking at it you can also buy the $12 version! Symb:


Same company.

LYSCF trades at $1.20.

LYSDY trades at $12.00.

The values are the same.

LYSDY will cost you less to buy and sell --- broker cost and market impact.
 
Ok folks, these threads go as long as the original ideas go so today we have made some moves.

We have taken the pop in FMCN and sold at $23.00. I would not be surprised to see this stock print $26.00 so I have mixed feelings selling. The fact is in at $19.00, we'll just take that cash if the market does a slight retrace here- this type of stk will get macked.

We have taken a FULL position in GSM discussed in this thread. For me the the technical set up is very good in this name it acted Friday like it wants to probe higher and there is NO OVERHEAD resistance-- we are just edging into a free fly zone where I think over the next year this will be one of our biggest winners. My price target is in the mid $30.00's and GSM trades for $14.00. I suggest all SI fans do this power move. Can you put $14,000 in a bank and take out $30,000 a year later? Sometimes in stocks you can.

We had a funny set up on Squak Box CNBC this morNing when they had a " Bull vs Bull " debate... the week earlier they had a hedge fund guy Tepper say no matter what happens stks go up... or " everything goes up " if the Fed eases. I can tell you 100% that he is wrong if the Fed does QE2 the market will tank- foreseeing a weaker future. The art of this game has always been shuffling around the deck chairs until the hole in the ship can be fixed. Sometimes small lies can be for the better if it leads to a greater reality.

It feels like we are due a pull in. It's just Europe is not doing it's part by going belly up; and these guys can only ring the short alarm so many times on Ireland. I read Greece got a lot of of oil money on loan. Spain hit the bond market successfully... the Euro is back up high... So what could reverse us here for a bit-- politics. last week no one noticed that a nice Friday spurt came after the realization on Thursday that the House would push off the Bush Tax cut decision till after the elections. Obviously, after Republican victories compromise would be in the air. In Sunday's paper Nancy Palosi is threatening to get a vote on it done in the Senate. Obama's market watchers need to get her in line-- the market won't like that vote.
I might have House & senate reversed there!

Another thing to watch this week is the ' Flash Crash ' report-- how the market takes that.

Anyway we have to make a decision on a big gain in SPRD this week and we have completed the CROX move to $12.50 that everyone was scared to make. We wound up making more money on the bounce than we lost in the fall... that's always stonedinvesting. Due to the short position I'm still holding. I'm sure some folks will have a problem with that.

The other stock we bought along with FMCN that day a few weeks ago was FNSR, we're up nice there to but I need to check the cost basis-- I'm pretty sure we can let that ride.

PPO is playing a little game it's going to appear not to move and frustrate some folks @$29.00 they are going to sell and Whap it's going to have an up $2.70 day.

Ok so the only buy this week is GLOBAL SPECIALTY MINERALS! Let's Roll! :cool:
~stoney
 
Here's a re post on GSM from earlier in the thread-


I just finished all my research and once again I'm coming towards one of these heavy metal plays... there's been a whole bunch lately. Friday GSM Global Specialty Metals had a strong report. i have been charting and watching the name a bit. A cursory look at GSM will show a very nice chart indeed. For me this is a buy @ $13.00 area with support at $12.75, pretty tight trade.

here's a chart from the internet-
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS...820&a=208628958

Some people like to use ' Replacement Cost ' as a basis for investing. It presents barriers to entry. If nothing else it can help you find a support & value level. GSM has nine plants that makes silicon metal. Their US plants (4) are some of the lowest cost plants in the world. The replacement value for these plants is estimated at $22+ a share. GSM giant furnaces cost $100 mln to build- they have 17!

Never too good to have concentrated customers and we do have a small problem here. Two Chemical co's make up 20% of sales. A bet on this company is a bet on Silicone! (and a bet on Owens Corning and Wacker.) Tracking silicon pricing might be tough, I have no idea where to look in the paper. As I understand it the price now is low heading into a strong recovery phase which I hope to learn more about by reading the conference call today. It seems we could be catching one of these powerhouse companies that are worth $35 at the right time for a 1-2 year trade.

In scrolling the internet I came up with a Merdith Witney Roundtable type thing from Barons-

Barron's:

What is cheap enough now?

Globe Specialty Metals [GSM] manufactures silicon metal and silicon alloys. It has four of the lowest-costs plants in the world. Silicon metal is made by smelting quartz and a special grade of coal. It is used in the aluminum industry to improve castability and strength. It is used in the chemical industry to make silicone, which is used in shampoos, toothpaste, plastic, solar panels and other products.

What, besides the products, do you like about the company?

The industry grows at GDP plus 3%. It is partly driven by the increased use of aluminum in cars, to make them more fuel-efficient. GSM came public in July 2009 at 7 a share. The stock is 11 now. The financials are confusing, due to a multitude of issues. Prices for silicon metals and alloys are rising due to the uptick in the economy and the growth in the developing countries.

Significant electricity shortages and cost increases have been experienced by competitors in China and Venezuela, so there is a shortage of the material now.

By January 2011 a lot of the noise will be out of the earnings. The current spot-market price for silicon is $1.45 a pound, up from about $1.20 earlier this year. If the price stays there, GSM will earn about $1.20 a share and produce after-tax free cash flow of $1.30 a share. It has $2 a share in net cash. If it traded at 10 times free cash flow, plus the $2 in cash, the stock would be 15. The company has a market share of more than 50% in the U.S. Its costs are variable, so even in tough markets it stays in the black. It has an amazing management team, with a knack for doing brilliant acquisitions, and a strong balance sheet.

Silicon-metal prices would need to get to at least $2.20 to make it worth adding capacity. If the metal sells for $2 a pound, GSM would be able to earn north of $3 a share. At $2.20 a pound, it could earn about $3.70 a share. Prices should get to $2 sometime in the next few years, assuming there is growth in the world economies. Our near-term price target for GSM is 15 to 17 a share, but our longer-term target is 35.

>>>> So GSM is my new stock of the week to do work on.
 
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