What happens Next. Treasuries...how it plays out...

A

achilles28

This is how I see it. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Treasuries continue sell-off > yields spike > market headwind > Trump installed > Immediately cuts regulation and red tape > leans on Yellen > FED monetizes to keep rates low > Trump quickly negotiates return of 3 Trillion offshore Corp cash > gets spent into economy > Quickly apportions infrastructure spending bill and delivers > huge tax cut across board, every level. (15% corp rate).

Apple just announce considering moving production to States.

Tariffs could crash the market, but Donald is slick. Before it gets to that he's got two weapons: negotiation (both parties want a deal) and old yeller. If the market dives, he'll lean on yellen to prop. "Stability"
 
Infrastructure spending is over a long time horizon, like 10 years. Congress will see to it benefits them more than Trump; they expect to serve longer terms.
A tax holiday repatriates cash but that doesn't create jobs nor does it necessarily mean it reenters the economy in the form of spending. Odds are that that the cash will be banked for bonuses and stock repurchases. The cut in the corporate tax falls in the same category.
A recession is a good excuse to pass tax cuts.
 
achilles28 said:
This is how I see it. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Treasuries continue sell-off > yields spike > market headwind > Trump installed > Immediately cuts regulation and red tape > leans on Yellen > FED monetizes to keep rates low > Trump quickly negotiates return of 3 Trillion offshore Corp cash > gets spent into economy > Quickly apportions infrastructure spending bill and delivers > huge tax cut across board, every level. (15% corp rate).

Apple just announce considering moving production to States.

Tariffs could crash the market, but Donald is slick. Before it gets to that he's got two weapons: negotiation (both parties want a deal) and old yeller. If the market we dives, he'll lean on yellen to prop. "Stability"
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So you're, basically, saying more of the same, except with higher budget deficits and more debt, right?

As to the return of offshore corp earnings, last time it happened, as the other poster said, it went mostly towards buybacks and dividends, rather than "spent into economy".

If you're one of the 1% crowd, the next 4 years are gonna be great, again. Thank you, American people.
 
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Martinghoul said:
So you're, basically, saying more of the same, except with higher budget deficits and more debt, right?

As to the return of offshore corp earnings, last time it happened, as the other poster said, it went mostly towards buybacks and dividends, rather than "spent into economy".

If you're one of the 1% crowd, the next 4 years are gonna be great, again. Thank you, American people.
More...

I couldn't believe that his blue collar base is buying his tax plan even when he calls it "trickle down economics." He didn't even try to hide it.
 
newwurldmn said:
I couldn't believe that his blue collar base is buying his tax plan even when he calls it "trickle down economics." He didn't even try to hide it.
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There are many things I couldn't believe... Still, he's gonna make things great for me again, so who am I to complain?
 
Martinghoul said:
So you're, basically, saying more of the same, except with higher budget deficits and more debt, right?

As to the return of offshore corp earnings, last time it happened, as the other poster said, it went mostly towards buybacks and dividends, rather than "spent into economy".

If you're one of the 1% crowd, the next 4 years are gonna be great, again. Thank you, American people.
More...
All Americans are in the top 1%.
 
Covertibility said:
Infrastructure spending is over a long time horizon, like 10 years. Congress will see to it benefits them more than Trump; they expect to serve longer terms.
A tax holiday repatriates cash but that doesn't create jobs nor does it necessarily mean it reenters the economy in the form of spending. Odds are that that the cash will be banked for bonuses and stock repurchases. The cut in the corporate tax falls in the same category.
A recession is a good excuse to pass tax cuts.
More...
Fair enough. But the market still goes up. Even if the money sits on the sidelines.
 
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