what happens if italy etc drops the euro

C

ck9

lets assume that italy drops the euro and relaunches the lira. how would that function?
would they simply exchange the italian euro notes(euro notes have a letter telling their origin) for lira?
i think this would be a really big mess if they drop the euro.

would be great if someone has knowledge
in this matter or could post a link about this.
thanks

regards
 
I'm afraid that on this forum nobody gives a s**t about Italy :D

Seriously: other countries are currently planning to accelerate their adoption of the euro, e.g. Denmark, even in UK there are rumors. And you want one of the founders and moreover one that hasn't spent a single penny to bailout banks yet, contrary to nearly all other european countries, to get out ?

And talking about the top level of world goverment: do you really believe that the powers-that-be, the monetary powers, those who have the power to print money, would allow their project to break apart ?
 
i think it is very likley that a few states will drop out . just look a the spread between the german and italian government bonds

Italy: 5,04 %
Germany: 3,85 %
 
I think this is a real possibility, as member states haven't been able to deal with the ECB all that well because of the one mandate on price stability. If it happens, expect a massive psychological effect on the Euro as the belief - however remote - that the monetary union can and will collapse.
 
Quote from ck9:

i think it is very likley that a few states will drop out . just look a the spread between the german and italian government bonds

Italy: 5,04 %
Germany: 3,85 %
More...
As soon as I read your first post, I already knew you were about posting about spreads, italian forums are full of this B.S.
So what ? Did you know that the ECB has the power to buy government bonds, and they often do it ?

If you are so sure about it, build some long CDS trade, or long BUND-short BTP trade. And good luck, because in your trade you'll have to go against the powers of the ECB.

FYI, Almunia has already expressed the will of European powers about spreads and Italy. If you want, translate for non-italian-speaking friends
http://borsaitaliana.it.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idITLT16072220081029:
 
A single European currency is a easy to deal with when things are going well. But now shit has hit the fan, and likely will get much worse before it gets better. This will be the real test of this currency.

National self interest it seems to me would prevail when things aren't going well, but I guess we'll see.

If one or two countries drop, regardless of how unimportant they are, the end is near for the Euro, IMO.
 
Quote from asap:

i wonder what will be the confetti/amero exchange rate then :confused:
More...
That's the point. This is paper money, and they do whatever thay want.

There are some crazy hedge funds, the so called shadow banking system, who want to fight the Central Banks.
Bring it on. Hedges are dying like flies.
 
[qoute]As soon as I read your first post, I already knew you were about posting about spreads, italian forums are full of this B.S.
So what ? Did you know that the ECB has the power to buy government bonds, and they often do it ?

If you are so sure about it, build some long CDS trade, or long BUND-short BTP trade. And good luck, because in your trade you'll have to go against the powers of the ECB.

FYI, Almunia has already expressed the will of European powers about spreads and Italy. If you want, translate for non-italian-speaking friends
http://borsaitaliana.it.reuters.com...16072220081029:[/qoute]


i live in germany and can´t translate italian.
i am not interested to do a trade on this, i have no edge, but my feeling tells me that this crisis will break the euro and i wan´t to be prepared.
if the economy gets ugly in italy i am sure they will think about dropping the euro to gain a competitive advantage.
 
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