What happened today and what will happen tomorrow?

A

Ayn Rand

Until about 11:30 AM the markets were hitting on All 6 up. After that, stock after stock starting their declines. The 3-4 PM period was the worst.

When I was watching the market I thought at first that Russia had started to invade the Ukraine - not.

Something abnormal is happening and I am clueless.

Most market makers don't mind a moderate decline but we are exceeding that now.

My only thought, grasping for straws, is that Netflix earnings leaked.

After hours looks bad.
 
Believe it or not, this is exactly what happens at the start of a bear market. Investors who are under water in stocks look for some strength to unload positions in order to preserve cash. Sentiment has clearly changed and I think the market is in trouble. As always the markets arent going away but we are in for some very rough waters. The newspapers havent even had headlines about the declining markets yet.
 
How does this work? A lot of people long on margin. Margin calls start to come in. How large a decline do you need to elicit a margin call?
 
What happened?

More sellers than buyers.

Why? Who cares?

Just go with the flow.

! SPX UpVsDnVol.png
 
ZBZB said:
Do you get short when the lines cross?
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That's way too late.

Once it went from 85% up vol (bottom subgraph) to below 65% game on - eMini broke 4540.xx, had to wait a little bit for the dam to give way and waterfall to rush down.
 
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Ayn Rand said:
Everyone knows that price goes down when there are more sellers than buyers. The question is why? You do not seem to care. That can work for short time trading. However, I suspect that something abnormal is up. I am soliciting opinions about what that could be?
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Ok. So reasons help how? To determine if move has more to go? And how much and how long?

FED is the reason, as far as I can tell. And they are just getting started, or rather they will be just getting started soon.

But I fail to see how that comes into play determining how long and how low?

Past history maybe gives clues but really every period is different than prior ones.
 
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