Fiery friends put a fresh strain on Anglo-US alliance
By Bronwen Maddox
Foreign Editor's Briefing: April 1, 2003
FROM Donald Rumsfeld, it was not surprising; from Colin Powell, it was astounding. The Secretary of Stateâs decision to accuse Iran and Syria of interference in the war just two days after the Secretary of Defence did the same suggests that this is further up the agenda than you might think for an Administration with an unfinished war on its hands.
The warning could backfire, strengthening the position of Iranian hardliners who claim their country is next on the hitlist.
But the real significance is the breach it heralds with Downing Street. It suggests that Washington will fall a long way short of the commitment to a Israeli-Palestinian âroad mapâ that the Prime Minister wants â and needs. Blair promised backbenchers that he would extract this from the United States; a grudging President Bush, distracted by the adrenalin of imminent battle, more or less gave his commitment. If he breaks that promise, it marks real trouble for the relationship and for Blair.
Powell chose to make his remarks at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Israelâs most powerful lobby group in the United States. The location of the speech in itself will be inflammatory to Arab countries already contemptuous of the Bush Administrationâs claim to be fighting this war for their advancement.
Powell did take pains to say that Israel as well as the Palestinians must make sacrifices for the sake of peace. To an unsurprisingly partisan audience, he said that terrorism against Israel must end (standing ovation), but also that âsettlement activity in the occupied territories must endâ (mixed claps and boos) and that Israel must help âdiminish the daily humiliation of life under occupationâ (hisses).
Word for word, this is no more than a restatement of the Administrationâs position, but it will confirm the widespread belief in the region that Iran and Syria are next on a âhitlistâ. If deterrence was the point of this warning, it is a curious way to go about it. There are more direct and more private ways to deliver a message that either leadership is more likely to accept. The sheer publicity of the threats of âserious consequencesâ for any interference is more likely to enrage and provoke than deter.
The twin bombardment was news to Americaâs closest ally. Some British officials appear to have been startled by Rumsfeldâs attack on Friday; they were even more dismayed by Powellâs remarks on Sunday.
For a start, Britain has deliberately kept lines open to at least part of the deeply divided leadership in Tehran. British diplomats argue that Iran could be extremely useful in winning the Iraq war â adding that, as a matter of fact, it already has been, albeit in covert ways. Despite being labelled part of the âaxis of evilâ by President Bush more than a year ago, Tehran has worked steadily to help unseat President Saddam Hussein.
Like the US, it would like to see a Shia uprising in the south; like the US, it does not want to see a Kurdish one in the north (although events are moving at the moment to frustrate them on both counts).
Yesterday Kamal Kharrazi, Iranâs Foreign Minister, brushed off Rumsfeldâs specific accusation that Iran was backing Shia revolutionaries operating inside Iraq.
It is impossible to treat this as the unanimous statement of âTehranâ, given the depths of the divisions in the Government, but in tone, it was a reassertion of Iranâs studied neutrality.
If Iran wonât rise to provocation, perhaps the question rests there for now. But the implications for Blair are serious; the points of friction with the US are multiplying.
When a second UN resolution disintegrated, Britain pinned hopes on reconstruction, but it seems that American companies will have the edge, at least at the start. Yesterday the two Governments were at odds over the treatment of captured Iraqis; to Washington they are âillegal combatantsâ who should be sent to Guantanamo Bay; to London, they are regular prisoners of war. The deaths of British servicemen from friendly fire have brought a diffuse national unhappiness, not yet targeted on the US, but it could be. Now there is Iran to strain the alliance. After the fighting stops, Blair has now been alerted, there may be Israel, too.