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what happened to no china crash before olympics?
- Thread starter jasonjm
- Start date
post people too poor to care...
article on Friday's USA Today about a cab driver in china who has 80% of his net worth in stocks. he can't sleep. and sometimes doesn't go to work. just stays at home and drinks he is so depressed. but not bailing out of his stocks. I bet this is how many relatively poor Chinese are behaving with their stocks. Afraid to sell them. Even maids in the wealthy areas (eastern China) have stocks, and they have no clue how any of it works.
Not sure if the Chinese gov will let companies there fail however. they are propping up most of the banks, that are way in the red, and have been for many years. the country certainly has enough reserves to keep their stock market from imploding altogether. For awhile any way.
Not sure if the Chinese gov will let companies there fail however. they are propping up most of the banks, that are way in the red, and have been for many years. the country certainly has enough reserves to keep their stock market from imploding altogether. For awhile any way.
1. Totalitarian state - govt. couldn't care less about the stock market. Useful tool to keep them distracted, however. Particularly since people with real wealth who matter have diversified and hold other assets (I assume - wouldn't any of us in the same situation?)
China really only cares about not having its people rioting and overthrowing the government. Drinking/depressed is not the same as angry.
2. Everyone said that the chinese market was unstoppable before the olympics and it crashed. Does that surprise anyone?
3. Cef CAF has gone from a 28% discount to a 2% discount. Discount narrowing in a declining market indicates that folks are still holding this (or trading around it, like I have ). Whether you think this is smart money or dumb money, those are the facts.
4. The most interesting thing is that the chinese govt reportedly holds a gazillion shares of everything which means that there is a stunning dilution potential (may not happen - a totalitarian state doesn't NEED to do anything). Not particularly bullish if they progress more toward capitalism.
China really only cares about not having its people rioting and overthrowing the government. Drinking/depressed is not the same as angry.
2. Everyone said that the chinese market was unstoppable before the olympics and it crashed. Does that surprise anyone?
3. Cef CAF has gone from a 28% discount to a 2% discount. Discount narrowing in a declining market indicates that folks are still holding this (or trading around it, like I have ). Whether you think this is smart money or dumb money, those are the facts.
4. The most interesting thing is that the chinese govt reportedly holds a gazillion shares of everything which means that there is a stunning dilution potential (may not happen - a totalitarian state doesn't NEED to do anything). Not particularly bullish if they progress more toward capitalism.
Quote from drsteph:
China really only cares about not having its people rioting and overthrowing the government. Drinking/depressed is not the same as angry.
this is very true. That is why they believe they NEED to grow at ten percent per year (to employ the massive amount of people entering the job market each month). Environment be damned, they really only care about staying in power. Super paranoid from what I've read.
This was from the shanghai 5000+ thread....
all bubbles correct hard, commodities being next, remember that....
S2007S
Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 6597
10-15-07 11:58 PM
Do you actually think this can continue, where markets will defy gravity, where risk will be nonexistent.
Think again..... right now it seems the global market can do no wrong, but time, I think is limited, and when the fall does start it will be quite massive.
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all bubbles correct hard, commodities being next, remember that....
S2007S
Registered: Aug 2006
Posts: 6597
10-15-07 11:58 PM
Do you actually think this can continue, where markets will defy gravity, where risk will be nonexistent.
Think again..... right now it seems the global market can do no wrong, but time, I think is limited, and when the fall does start it will be quite massive.
Edit/Delete ⢠Quote ⢠Complain
http://video.on.nytimes.com/?fr_story=28530d69c138903434657c85ad8204060d602e2d
This is pretty relevant to the subject.
This is pretty relevant to the subject.