What generates your trading signals?

[Visaria]

I'm out of half at 585. I'll let the rest run.

 

[Visaria]

It does not mean anything to those who are ignorant. The aim of a trader is to know what he should know.
To know if something is cheap or not you need a system. That system tells you how probable it is that something is cheap or not. Probability you can have in foresight, certainty in hindsight.

Fantastic. I don't know anything and I'm gonna stay ignorant.

 

[Visaria]

I'm out of half at 585. I'll let the rest run.

stop moved to 500

 

[Howard]

A signal doesn't have to be right 100% of the time. Casinos make millions from blackjack which has less than 1% house edge. A six sided die doesn't have to throw 1 2 3 4 5 6. A signal which is right more than half the time is a good signal. The point is to limit your risk when the signal is wrong.

Casinos have deeper pockets and can endure drawdown.

If you want to day trade ES you simply can't have a low winning percentage, unless your winners are huge which again isn't very likely on average. Other instruments which are less prone to retrace and backfill might be different.

 

[Howard]

You would be far better off researching exit strategies and position sizing rather than entry signals.

In order to optimize profits, you need to optimize both. When entries are good, risk is low and profit potential (exit) is much bigger.

For my purposes - an exit or entry signal shouldn't be very different from each other. Often, your exit signal might be reversed for a new position in the opposite direction. Often, but certainly not always.

 

[Howard]

@Howard Here's a signal for you, buy YM if it hits 535 today. Can you do it...buying at the high?

50 points stop. exit

What was your signal? Live calls might be interesting, but it's much more interesting to understand the rationale behind the signal.

While you seemed to have secured a nice morning scalp, the better signal for today would be to short the double top at 600 with the large gap below as an attractor.

And that's another part of my system. I have various levels and targets. What I'm interested in discussing in this thread is technical signals for either reversals or continuation signals in an already established direction (trend).

 

[Howard]

Still trying to have a system handed to you Esfocus? I hope you get what you need without doing much work.

I already have a system which is working well and I have zero interest in your shitty system for sure. Get back to your journal and daily massive long signals. That's all you're getting.

 

[Howard]

Also, @Visaria:

I'm genuinely curious about your experience with the Al Brooks course you took? Did you go for a refund like you said you would or did you end up finding it useful?

I read his first book many years back and thought it was interesting, although it's quite different from my current approach. I do currently utilize various charting set-ups as I mentioned in the OP to generate my signals.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

We gots us a real live sitchy.

 

[cornerstone]

Maybe I'm ignorant, but I'm not fully convinced by 'order flow' or 'bid/ask' volume analysis. Particularly in a market such as ES which is my focus.

That's why I was curious if you had any actual data to suggest it actually provides an edge over anything else. Simply put: if it works only now and then or even 50% of the time, well...

It might very well be that it's not the case with your kind of charts, but I find that vendors and educators tend to push things which simply offer little value in the end.

It is a better way to look at the order flow then the classic DOM, because it shows also the historical orders and requests do one, with studying of course, can get a better sence of how the price will move.
The lines in the different colors show the past orders.