And here we go with the expert again!
What generates your trading signals?
- Thread starter Howard
- Start date
Logical thinking.
Go ahead and hand out your trading plan to folks wanting to skip the work.
Maybe I'm ignorant, but I'm not fully convinced by 'order flow' or 'bid/ask' volume analysis. Particularly in a market such as ES which is my focus.
That's why I was curious if you had any actual data to suggest it actually provides an edge over anything else. Simply put: if it works only now and then or even 50% of the time, well...
It might very well be that it's not the case with your kind of charts, but I find that vendors and educators tend to push things which simply offer little value in the end.
No worries. I have zero interest in your 'massive' long signals which seems to happen on a daily basis. Keep your trading 101 stuff to yourself.
Markets have their own idiosyncrasies. My focus is ES. One pattern I find to happen a lot on ES is what one would have to label a false breakout. I think Victor Sperandeo calls it 2B patterns.
It happened on yesterday's break of the RTH lows.
Seeing how swiftly that level was reversed earlier in the day and considering it was just below the prior day close; this is a scenario which one could have anticipated in advance.
In essence, this type of pattern could be labeled a double bottom also. I find that DBs/DTs both seem to work fairly well in ES.
As mentioned, I have not yet found a consistent way to utilize trend lines on ES. They're not always easy to draw in due to the choppy/backfill nature of ES. And their breaks seems to not always generate good signals; again probably a function of the false breakouts which seems to occur often in this market.
Again, I keep testing these and trialing various rules for how to draw & use them.
It happened on yesterday's break of the RTH lows.
Seeing how swiftly that level was reversed earlier in the day and considering it was just below the prior day close; this is a scenario which one could have anticipated in advance.
In essence, this type of pattern could be labeled a double bottom also. I find that DBs/DTs both seem to work fairly well in ES.
As mentioned, I have not yet found a consistent way to utilize trend lines on ES. They're not always easy to draw in due to the choppy/backfill nature of ES. And their breaks seems to not always generate good signals; again probably a function of the false breakouts which seems to occur often in this market.
Again, I keep testing these and trialing various rules for how to draw & use them.
Another interesting signal is what I call tail bars. I think the logic supporting them is also solid. I wouldn't go long/short on a tail bar alone, but if my system/analysis otherwise suggest a buy/sell, a tail bar around a perceived bottom/top is a good additional support, IMO.
Always best when you have multiple signals lining up together: double bottom, tail bar, statistics, etc.
Always best when you have multiple signals lining up together: double bottom, tail bar, statistics, etc.
a. People don't give their whole system away in one post.
b. It probably doesn't work for us, because it's their own idea, and they have the experience to trade it through different environments.
I'm always looking for new approaches and ideas.
Out of these, I have to construct my own system, trade it and trust it.
I pm'ed a few people who were actually very friendly and gave me some good tips.
I hardly think telling someone one way that generates a signal is giving away my trading plan!
Trendlines work very well imo.
You can't wait for a perfect buying signal because it almost never happens.
If the stock market is all bullish and your approach is a contrarian one then you will be waiting and waiting and leaving profits at a table.
You can't wait for a perfect buying signal because it almost never happens.
If the stock market is all bullish and your approach is a contrarian one then you will be waiting and waiting and leaving profits at a table.