What generates your trading signals?

Handle123 said:
Maybe it is the end of the week and I am tired, maybe doing this 41 years, maybe I am a cranky older man..maybe I am tired of immature questions by so many who don't understand you have to put in huge quantity of time on your own to discover what works that YOU. I am so much different in language than 41 years ago dealing with trading, I think in terms of risk first and risk always, charting=if you don't breath it, dream it your methods will be short lived, those who do volume rule the markets, exchanges were not developed for retail so they are not going to mean chit with your five lot, don't expect any respect to equality.

Doing this so flipping long, almost anything works to make a signal, throwing a dart can work cause I can read CHARTS. You can better understand when markets reverse, study that and only that for a few years, chart by hand at extremes and tape them to office walls and ceiling. Learn by doing and studying.

Indicators are fine, but they indicate and do not foretell.

Speed of price, acceleration of price, decreasing price with volume, increasing volume, waves & swings range constricting and expansion, clustering, well defined H&S, secondary H/L's, triples/quads, diamond and megaphone patterns, triangles, wedges, failures, hidden-equal-50%-volume divergences, trendline and trendline failures, times of the day, overnight price action, what are the notes/crude/fomc doing, trin & tick, moving averages, RSI's, Bollinger bands, options & hedging, entering fills too fast or too slow, time and sales, dom study, MAE/MFE, time stops, spreads, automation, what you not quick enough to see. 41 years of back testing in various ways.

This is most of my signals and where turning points, forget asking for definitions, start studying on your own. Start at beginning of the forum and not at the end.
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What he said
 
wwatson1 said:
What he said
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Which is what exactly?

It's the same story over and over again and he seem to have you all fooled, but not me.

Backtesting for 60 years. Sore eyes. Charting by hand. 20 people working for him. In the end his method seems to be about averaging down contract after contract in order to hopefully get 1 tick out of a trade.

I don't mind people posting drivel as long as it's harmless, but since he labeled my questions immature and implied I'm not putting in the hours or doing my own research, I couldn't resist myself.
 
Specterx said:
They're the same thing, a change of direction. If the (possible) new direction is the same as a prior trend then it's a pullback, if not then it's a reversal.
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Did you not understand what I mean or are you being difficult on purpose?

A pullback is a counter-trend move depending on how you define trend, i.e., down, if the trend is currently up.

At some point in time - the counter-trend move will not be a pullback, but actually reverse the up trend and establish a down trend.
 
Howard said:
Did you not understand what I mean or are you being difficult on purpose?

A pullback is a counter-trend move depending on how you define trend, i.e., down, if the trend is currently up.

At some point in time - the counter-trend move will not be a pullback, but actually reverse the up trend and establish a down trend.
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In this nice example where the channel is drawn after the fact one can easily identify the pullbacks on the ongoing down direction. Every minor up move is followed by a larger down move for a sustained move down.

Eventually, the market trades out of the channel and reverses to an up trend.


But what if the channel were drawn this way?

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Or maybe instead we would have something like this...
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Differentiating between or identifying a pullback and a true reversal is one of the most fundamental questions for a technical trader, IMO.

If you wait for confirmation, you're often too late or miss a lot of the move. If you're too early, you're often wrong.

If I try to enter counter trend, I always make sure I use a very tight stop which is typically B/E very fast since I know where I'm wrong.

For me, I usually have other tools in my arsenal to gauge if we're looking at a reversal or a pullback, but it's not always easy. So in the end, it's always about probabilities and managing risk for the most favourable outcome based on what you know about your market.
 
Howard said:
Did you not understand what I mean or are you being difficult on purpose?

A pullback is a counter-trend move depending on how you define trend, i.e., down, if the trend is currently up.

At some point in time - the counter-trend move will not be a pullback, but actually reverse the up trend and establish a down trend.
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Lol to the attitude.

What's a "pullback in a bear trend"? A bull trend that reverses. If it doesn't reverse before invalidating the bear trend, then obviously it wasn't a pullback. A "pullback" on a 60min chart will print as a "reversal" on a 5min chart, and the 60min pullback may itself be part of a reversal structure on a daily chart. So like I said, a pullback and a reversal are exactly the same thing, a change of direction. The only difference is in scale relative to the chart you're currently viewing, which is the basis for using multiple TFs.
 
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Forget about higher timeframes. Call it change of TREND then if that's easier.

On the chart I posted above, every move up on the down TREND was a pullback, not a change of direction/trend which was down for the entire down move until it reversed at the end of the chart and established an UP TREND.

That's why I'm inquiring about. Not higher timeframes (although they obviously can be used to support trading decisions on a lower time frame).
 
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