what factors/data shall I use to predict the movement of Crude Oil?

[mizhael]

Quote from uexkuell:

Forget about leading or lagging.
Probably no such things left today where the machines are trading in sub-second timeframes.

They are synchronous up to the second (or even below).
This can be used for confirmation.

You are right. But without knowing leading or lagging, how do you predict based on these inputs?

 

[Coolio]

Quote from olias:

you gotta watch what the US Dollar is doing too. The stronger the dollar the weaker the crude price.

That's what I do ... I run two charts ... dollar must be bearish before I go long crude.

 

[mizhael]

Quote from uexkuell:

Forget about leading or lagging.
Probably no such things left today where the machines are trading in sub-second timeframes.

They are synchronous up to the second (or even below).
This can be used for confirmation.

How do you use this for confirmation?

 

[Murray Ruggiero]

Check out this thread

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=72664

 

[uexkuell]

Quote from mizhael:
How do you use this for confirmation?

If there are 5 ducks flying in different directions that does not give any information.
But if they join in flying south and they make turns in the very same moment you know autumn is coming.

Algorithmically speaking this is pattern recognition and it is very difficult to program it. Though human brains can spot patterns relatively easily.
The brain can be helped to be more efficient in this task by computer programs.

 

[black diamond]

Quote from mizhael:

what factors/data shall I use to predict the movement of Crude Oil?
I am playing around with various methods of forecasting,
what data are relevant and therefore I should throw into my forecast model?
I am thinking of SP500, what else?
Any suggestions?
Thanks!

Assuming your timeframe is compatible, I would look at the CFTC's COTS report. Google COTS trading systems for specific ideas, but you basically look to piggy back on or fade certain categories of traders.

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from mizhael:

what factors/data shall I use to predict the movement of Crude Oil?
I am playing around with various methods of forecasting,
what data are relevant and therefore I should throw into my forecast model?
I am thinking of SP500, what else?
Any suggestions?
Thanks!

In the long run, oil price s dependant on money supply.

 

[ammo]

keep longer term timeframe eur/usd and dx on your screen look for turns on major supp;res and use market profile and 5 and 1q5 and 30 minute tl's for scalping

 

[mizhael]

Quote from uexkuell:

If there are 5 ducks flying in different directions that does not give any information.
But if they join in flying south and they make turns in the very same moment you know autumn is coming.

Algorithmically speaking this is pattern recognition and it is very difficult to program it. Though human brains can spot patterns relatively easily.
The brain can be helped to be more efficient in this task by computer programs.

I am good at programming pattern recognition systems. I used to do facial recognition and speech recognition.

But how to use pattern recognition techniques here in trading?

 

[mizhael]

Quote from black diamond:

Assuming your timeframe is compatible, I would look at the CFTC's COTS report. Google COTS trading systems for specific ideas, but you basically look to piggy back on or fade certain categories of traders.

I downloaded some CFTC data and throw into my neural networks to do the forecasting but didn't get anything meaningful.

Maybe I am not using the data in the right way...