What Ever Happened to Peak Oil?

bone · Sep 28, 2016

If you drill down (ha !) and refine (ha !) the term "peak oil" to mean "technologically exploitable oil stocks" then yes, we have not met "peak oil" in that sense.

Just ask Saudia Arabia and Russia...

Even if the oil supply on planet earth is a constant being depleted by mankind - the term "peak" means nothing. "exploitable" means everything. Fracking and deep water drilling technologies have changed our world.

achilles28 · Sep 28, 2016

Pekelo said:
Sir, just like the OP, you are an idiot. Luckily for you, here I am to explain it like you are 5:

Peak crude oil (and that is what we meant by peak oil) happened back in 2008. That means we are not producing more crude oil now or in the future than the peak back in 2008. Period.

Now there are other oil substitutes (shale, oil sand, etc) that can be used eventually as crude, but the prediction wasn't about them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unconventional_oil

To use an analogy so simple minded people like you would understand, if a bar runs out of beer, there are still there wine and hard liquor to get drunk from, but they aren't beer.

TL;DR: Peak crude oil happened as predicted back in 2008. Now go fuck yourself you imbecile anti-science people...

Another Peaker. Long time, no see

Still clinging to your worthless theories at 40 dollars a barrel ? lol

Turveyd · Sep 29, 2016

I was a big peak oiler aswell, I think we neared peak, which sent the price rocketing which then stalled the global economy reducing the demand and pulling us away from the peak.

Better tech, more efficent use of also reducing demand.

Looking like demand is slowing faster than supply is therefore no peak oil ever.

Global warming wise, supply decreasing and demand will also reduce that issue that and warmer winters and summers so not really seeing the downside in the uk atleast.

Pekelo · Sep 29, 2016

clacy said:
Sorry, but I don't remember the word crude in there 10 years ago. Sounds like you just moved the goal post.

When Hubbert was talking about oil (and that was 50 years ago) everyone understood crude oil. Why? Because nobody was producing shale, what is hard to do and not energy efficient. Why would you even care about shale or tar sand, when there was plenty of crude coming out by itself from the ground for dirt cheap?

And sure enough the US crude production peaked as predicted in the 70s and world production peaked actually twice, in 2005 and 2008, you could call it a double top if you were a trader.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory

"Hubbert, in his 1956 paper, presented two scenarios for US crude oil production:"

Looks like according to Wikipedia Hubbert was talking about crude oil....No goal post moving needed.

Pekelo · Sep 29, 2016

achilles28 said:
Another Peaker. Long time, no see Still clinging to your worthless theories at 40 dollars a barrel ? lol

If by peaker you dumbass you mean someone who understands science then yes. And by the way price itself has nothing to do with peak oil. If the world switches to electric, oil could go to $10, it doesn't mean it hasn't peaked, but you need a high school ed to understand that.

The peak oil prediction was about PRODUCED VOLUME not PRICE.

Pekelo · Sep 29, 2016

Turveyd said:
Better tech,

This is true. That better tech like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking and such are producing oil from:

-shale
-tar sands
-liquified coal (the nazis started this when they were running out of crude)
-GTL (gas to liquid)
-extra heavy oil

And we are doing these complicated, expensive and very dirty processes, because we have plenty of crude, right? Remember when crude was bubbling up from the ground in Pennsylvania? Well you didn't go to school, so you don't, but that was 150 years ago. Just when whale oil was peaking due to over whaling.

Anyhow long story short: Anything non-replenishable* will run out sooner or later. That means peak coal, peak copper, pick any metal.

*I know this is a strange word for you guys so I will explain it: something that can not be replaced

Even things that replenish themselves like animals can go extinct if the rate of usage is bigger than the rate of reproduction. Ask the dodo how it feels about peak oil.

Anyhow, as much as I love to educate ignoramuses, I don't think you guys will get it, so just remember, crude oil peaked back in 2008 and that is why we use a bunch of substitutes now.

Oh yes, and finish that damn high school, you might even learn something....

Turveyd · Sep 29, 2016

Pekelo said:
This is true. That better tech like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking and such are producing oil from:

-shale
-tar sands
-liquified coal (the nazis started this when they were running out of crude)
-GTL (gas to liquid)
-extra heavy oil

And we are doing these complicated, expensive and very dirty processes, because we have plenty of crude, right? Remember when crude was bubbling up from the ground in Pennsylvania? Well you didn't go to school, so you don't, but that was 150 years ago. Just when whale oil was peaking due to over whaling.

Anyhow long story short: Anything non-replenishable* will run out sooner or later. That means peak coal, peak copper, pick any metal.

*I know this is a strange word for you guys so I will explain it: something that can not be replaced

Even things that replenish themselves like animals can go extinct if the rate of usage is bigger than the rate of reproduction. Ask the dodo how it feels about peak oil.

Anyhow, as much as I love to educate ignoramuses, I don't think you guys will get it, so just remember, crude oil peaked back in 2008 and that is why we use a bunch of substitutes now.

Oh yes, and finish that damn high school, you might even learn something....

Better Tech all round, better Tech to extract it and better Tech to use less.

Helium was running out soon, think they've found some recently thankfully.

Drinkable Water is also becoming more and more of an issue in some parts of the world.

Which will eventually lead to mass population reduction, which will also stave of peak oil.

Basically, what ever the cost included lives we'll find a way to keep out life styles and a gas guzzling cars, we suck!!

fhl · Sep 29, 2016

Pekelo said:
When Hubbert was talking about oil (and that was 50 years ago) everyone understood crude oil. Why? Because nobody was producing shale, what is hard to do and not energy efficient. Why would you even care about shale or tar sand, when there was plenty of crude coming out by itself from the ground for dirt cheap?

And sure enough the US crude production peaked as predicted in the 70s and world production peaked actually twice, in 2005 and 2008, you could call it a double top if you were a trader.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory

"Hubbert, in his 1956 paper, presented two scenarios for US crude oil production:"

Looks like according to Wikipedia Hubbert was talking about crude oil....No goal post moving needed.

Wrong.

crude oil
noun

unrefined petroleum.
"a shortage of crude oil"

Canada's Largest Refinery Shifts from Bakken Shale Oil to Brent ...
www.wsj.com/.../irving-oil-to-invest-in-turnaround-project-at-...The Wall Street Journal
Aug 20, 2015 - The operator of Canada's largest crude oil refinery, Irving Oil Ltd., said it has stopped importing Bakken Shale oil from the U.S. in favor of ...

Shale has to be refined just like all other. You're just making crap up as you go along, just like those clowns on wiki try to convince everyone that the 70's global cooling was a myth.

Arnie · Sep 29, 2016

Looks like I touched the nerve of at least one idiot. LOL

SunTrader · Oct 2, 2016

Surgo said:
Kind of a strange article and strange discussion. That there is more supply found now doesn't mean that there will be more supply available forever, and that it's being used faster than it can be replaced is certainly not up for debate. We can only hope there is enough supply to last us until we find a better energy source (which is a tall order because oil is a fantastically good energy source on a number of axes). I hope that in a hundred years we aren't looking back and saying "They had all that amazing material for creating plastics, and what did they do? They burned it!"

Except plastics are made from the byproducts of crude and natural gas production.

Otherwise without the need to explore and drill for carbon based energy sources the cost of making plastics would be prohibitive.

Anyway human ingenuity will get us to a place where we have sustainable, economically viable, environmental friendly energy - most likely loooong before we run out of Peak Oil.