What effect would a strong oil rally have on the U.S. economy?

I'll just point out two things

(1) All serious economic research/thinking is published in peer reviewed journals; there's no 'commercial' value in macro policy research; Bernanke didn't make millions with his research publications.

(2) Holding the opinion that your thoughts are incoherent and without merit *does not equal* to believe the world is a-okay. The two are not polar.

Also, might you enlighten me what "Believe me my surname indicates I have genes that give me a serious advantage over you." actually means? Are you saying that your ethnicity hold you in a natural superiority in economic thinking?

In that case, go forth my man, and claim untold wealth in your brave new world. You don't need to care what a fella bored on a sunday night starring at boxes as he's about to move his apartment might be thinking.

Quote from morganist:

I was asked but I declined to write the said paper. I have been developing one for the EU instead. I will not show it because it has commercial value.

You say that you follow other economists work. But surely you understand that the current economic, banking and financial system is in a terrible state. Believe me my surname indicates I have genes that give me a serious advantage over you.

Have you ever considered that just possibly you might be wrong and that someone else might be right. Rather than laying in with a personal attack that has no relevance to the argument.

I will say it once more you have not seen my work. You have not met me. You have no right to make personal attacks about me. It is quite simply very rude.
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Quote from sjfan:

I'll just point out two things

(1) All serious economic research/thinking is published in peer reviewed journals; there's no 'commercial' value in macro policy research; Bernanke didn't make millions with his research publications.

(2) Holding the opinion that your thoughts are incoherent and without merit *does not equal* to believe the world is a-okay. The two are not polar.

Also, might you enlighten me what "Believe me my surname indicates I have genes that give me a serious advantage over you." actually means? Are you saying that your ethnicity hold you in a natural superiority in economic thinking?

In that case, go forth my man, and claim untold wealth in your brave new world. You don't need to care what a fella bored on a sunday night starring at boxes as he's about to move his apartment might be thinking.
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I think this is point I am making. The paper contains new ideas and calculations and methodologies. Research papers never contain new inventions that have a value. They usually look at research and make conclusions based on evidence.

This is where I differ. Say for example you could not control aggregate demand using the conventional methods without serious fallout. Say for the sake of it you might want to alter the interest rate to control the level of inflation. You would alter the reserve requirement to alter lending levels and thus price of lending then the interest rate. I would invent another way of controlling the level of inflation. This would include new calculations, legislative limitations and computer programmes to implement this mechanism. This has commercial value. You can patent these things and charge the use of them.

This is the reason that I would invent something. If the interest rate rises it will have a negative effect on borrowers and new businesses. If you find alternatives without negatives you have a better product.

This is why I am different from other macro economists. I will invent something like the interest rate mechanism that can be used to control inflation or something like that. I also write taxation models, pension systems, banking systems etc.

It is a much higher level than you are talking about. If Ben Bernanke wrote the original interest calculations on borrowing, then the banking system, then the central banking system model, then the taxation system model and pension system model that would be worth something.

This is what I have been and I am currently in the process of doing.

You have no idea how much of a compliment you are giving me by your misunderstanding of what I do. You think that I look at figure and make conclusion that I can then apply a failing system to. I have my own system.
 
Super. I look forward to your success then. Many break thrus in scientific history were made by amateurs who balked the mainstream. Perhaps you'll be one of them (I'm not at all being sarcastic here, obviously).

Now, would you care to explain what you mean by "Believe me my surname indicates I have genes that give me a serious advantage over you." ?

Also, your definition of research is wrong. You said: "Research papers never contain new inventions that have a value." I'm quite sure you've never actually read research - surely things like Taylor Rule are not new 'inventions' (well, I guess not, since no one in the history of economic/financial research has used the word 'invention'; not Fama-French on which so many quant funds are built; not Black-Scholes who proposed a method to calculate options pricing, etc).


Quote from morganist:

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Quote from morganist:

Yet again you have missed my point. The US may well have a negative response to the oil rise but it will be less negative than other countries. This is point the blog post makes.
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those who have to hold currency which is in hyperinflation stage will lose
in this case it will be american. and despite all you rhetoric there won't be any advantage if US is not reserve currency any more
so the real question not oil prices but reserve currency.
If foreign banks sell their US bonds it's over for US doesn't matter if oil is still in dollars

anyway less negative doesn't work in this case. US need employment - higher oil prices less employment. If thing get worse enough US can get to riot stage
And it won't help if riots somewhere else more violent
 
Quote from sjfan:

Super. I look forward to your success then. Many break thrus in scientific history were made by amateurs who balked the mainstream. Perhaps you'll be one of them (I'm not at all being sarcastic here, obviously).

Now, would you care to explain what you mean by "Believe me my surname indicates I have genes that give me a serious advantage over you." ?

Also, your definition of research is wrong. You said: "Research papers never contain new inventions that have a value." I'm quite sure you've never actually read research - surely things like Taylor Rule are not new 'inventions' (well, I guess not, since no one in the history of economic/financial research has used the word 'invention'; not Fama-French on which so many quant funds are built; not Black-Scholes who proposed a method to calculate options pricing, etc).
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The taylor rule is a set of rules for interest rates. There is no commercial value in the way my work is.

In terms of my surname do you not know. No it is not a racial thing.

I am tired I am going to bed.
 
Quote from kashirin:

those who have to hold currency which is in hyperinflation stage will lose
in this case it will be american. and despite all you rhetoric there won't be any advantage if US is not reserve currency any more
so the real question not oil prices but reserve currency.
If foreign banks sell their US bonds it's over for US doesn't matter if oil is still in dollars

anyway less negative doesn't work in this case. US need employment - higher oil prices less employment. If thing get worse enough US can get to riot stage
And it won't help if riots somewhere else more violent
More...

The post made no comments to other economic factors. It purely stated the situation in the middle east on the economy.

You may well be right but that has no impact on the argument I am making. The situation in the middle east will help america even if it is temporary and other factor ruin the economy.
 
Quote from morganist: I don't think we use WTI in Europe.
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It's not used in 90% of the US, either. The spread you're referring to is an extremely local phenomenon caused by quirks in the current fuel delivery and refining system.

...contraction in China will cause contraction in the US.
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High input prices will cause contraction in China relative to the US as manufacturing starts to repatriate. That causes both a shift of jobs and capital from China to the US, as well as decreases exports for China.

I don't want to make further criticism of you because it looks poor. I will say that from my understanding of what you have stated you are not economically well read.
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Is the irony intentional?
 
It seems much of the discussion is missing a key point: the world's reserve currency isn't the USD, it's a barrel of crude oil. While oil was cheap and plentiful, USD served as a close-enough proxy: with oil expensive, that no longer works.
 
Morganist, I wonder about your general idea of commercializing macro economic policy, it seems a bit off. I don't mind people who make a go of it at all and try something new, however I do mind people who pretend to be all high and mighty while they still have a donations button on their website which is supposed to publicize their "research" (or whatever it is that stuff is).

The only point you make that *may* be true is that the relative purchasing power of the US compared to EU and China will go up in the event of an oil price shock, however who cares about that anyway? The goal of economic policy is to all get richer (preferably us a little more and certainly not less richer than them).

Your point that consumption increase in China will lead to a worse situation for the US is also slightly strange. How exactly would that be the case? (Assuming China's production capacity in the short term is very limited and in the long term is at least not infinite) There will have to be increased imports from US by China to meet this increased consumer demand. This will be good for the US trade deficit which should be a positive.

Also, for some reason which I haven't been able to really understand, the Chinese like the worst of American exports like Chevrolets and what not (instead of the good stuff like peanut butter M&M's, Reese's, mountain dew, root beer and In&Out). Annoys me to great extent that we in Europe also get Chevrolet but none of the above mentioned things.

If you might just have concluded something like "Short Hang Seng/Shanghai Comp/CAC40/EuroStoxx50, long S&P500/Russell2000 with/without currency hedges and whatever other hedges may be necessary" you might have actually made a valid suggestion which could bring valid trade ideas to readers here (even if your arguments to do it is totally wrong) but instead you just ramble about what a great macro economist you are and how you "invent models".
 
Israelis feel “on their own” under Obama

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who recently returned from a trip to Israel, tells Newsmax that the Israelis feel “on their own” and no longer can rely on the United States under President Barack Obama.

The 2008 Republican presidential candidate also says the Obama administration has mismanaged its response to the turmoil in the Middle East and has treated adversary Iran better than longtime ally Egypt.

The idea that America can coexist with radical Islam, he adds, is “utter naïve nonsense, because their goal is the annihilation of all the infidels, including all the Muslims who don’t adhere to their radical view of shariah law and to the establishment of a caliphate.”

Asked whether the Obama administration has done enough to deal with the outbreak of protests in the Middle East, Huckabee responds: “No. In fact, I think their problem is they don’t even know what’s going on.

“They had no intelligence whatsoever in Egypt to understand that that was coming. They were totally caught off guard.”

Furthermore, he says, “the way we mismanaged that is that we simply sent a message to all our allies in the Middle East, not just in the Middle East but everywhere, and here’s what it said: No matter how strong an ally you have been, if you get in trouble, you are so on your own, because we are immediately going to pick who we think is going to win and jump on their tank with them.”

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak “had been an ally for 30 years. He had kept the peace with Israel. Without praising him or trying to keep him in power, the president could have said this is a matter for the Egyptian people to determine. We respect their sovereignty as a nation, and if their people choose to depose their government, then we won’t interfere with that. But we certainly acknowledge the relationship we have had with President Mubarak and we are grateful that he has kept the peace.

“What [Obama] did by immediately calling for Mubarak’s ouster was something he never did for [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad during the uprising in 2009. We are essentially saying we treat our enemies better than we treat our friends. He never called for the ouster or the stepping down of Ahmadinejad, but on day one he’s calling for Mubarak to step down.”

http://www.newsmax.com/InsideCover/mike-huckabee-israel-obama/2011/02/26/id/387571

Lone and free-mind Israel can change world economy.
 
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