It seems to me that except for brief interludes of panic, opinion as to direction is almost equally devided. When you see a 1000 car trade cross the board does it not mean that two large size traders have opposite opinions as to immediate direction? I see people talking about "a lot of size coming in" but how does this give you any clue as to direction? When you watch a lot of large trades crossing the tape but no change in direction how do you know if this is accumulation or distribution? It would seem like half the people are distributing and half are accumulating. I am asking all this because I have been observing the tape on a tick by tick basis for awhile and it seems to me that short term direction is a coin toss. I trade trendlines on a 5 minute chart and enter and exit on trendline breaks but have been looking for clues for better entries and exits by watching "the tape" but I just dont get it. When you see a lot of size coming in how do you interpret it?
What does "size" mean to you?
- Thread starter Bearbelly
- Start date
If this were the case then the market would never move!
There are many reasons to take a trade - speculation, hedging, market maker, profit taking, loss exits, fat fingers, you get the idea...
Remeber, a lot of those big trades are simply hedging off other trades, not directional by nature. Rather than 2 differing opinions, perhaps two of the same opinion...arbitrage.
FWIW,
Don
If someone were to respond to you, what is your plan of action?
I would do the same as I am doing now which is studying most of the day. The reason I have been monitoring this stuff is the result of reading a lot of your posts. The channels and volume are terrific. Ftt's are becoming clearer. I am using prorata volume which is a very neat tool for enter and hold and warning of change coming up. Now I am trying simply understand what is going on at the micro level. You have said the the small side of the dom is in control but Scientist says price will always move toward the volume which is the large side. Its kind of confusing but I will keep plugging away.
Thank you fo your response. I appreciate it.
You made an initial statement that had several questions. I feel that the questions define where you are and questions do come from somewhere. I spent some time looking at where they came from.
Again thanks for your response. I'm kind of walking on eggs in this forum. From the views stated, it is too risky for me to participate at this time.
