What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

... The main risk on these strategies is not really jump risk, but rather margin risk - it's not likely your going to see any of the options pay off, but it's possible that you see the margin double or even triple during the life of the trade due to vega and cross-effects.
Agreed. Even with PM I can't understand why she would sell these far OTM puts naked instead of spreading them off by buying even further OTM puts with a large strike distance. The impact to return is very small and the reduction in margin is huge when the market approaches your short strike. I just don't get it.
 
btw.. looking at the way. .shorts have been massacred, how must folks doing karen style trading faring on the call side. .must be horrendous..
the calls have zoomed. if u check 1 to 2 month out.. all of the far OTM premiums are shooting up and maintenance margin is jumping
 
Agreed. Even with PM I can't understand why she would sell these far OTM puts naked instead of spreading them off by buying even further OTM puts with a large strike distance. The impact to return is very small and the reduction in margin is huge when the market approaches your short strike. I just don't get it.
She is selling vol (or at least she claims too). Spreading would have her buying even richer vol/tails as a hedge. In terms of returns, if I had to guess, I'd recon that you reduce your expectation a lot by spreading and change the profile of the strategy in the process.
 
She is selling vol (or at least she claims too). Spreading would have her buying even richer vol/tails as a hedge. In terms of returns, if I had to guess, I'd recon that you reduce your expectation a lot by spreading and change the profile of the strategy in the process.

Correct. If she wanted to reduce risk she would be better off reducing her position size than hedging.
 
must be horrendous..
Survey says... :D

selling 1m 105% calls
profit ratio 3.36
mean p&l 0.44%
median p&l 0.38%
worst trade -7.38%
stdev 1.20%
worst dd -8.07%
crux ratio 18.49

sell 1m 95% puts
profit ratio 2.11
mean p&l 0.49%
median p&l 0.82%
worst trade -8.18%
stdev 1.91%
worst dd -17.24%
crux ratio 35.13
 
Too lazy to calculate if their sharpe is in line with the SPX over the same period, but their sharpe is inline with the long run average of the SPX.

Sharpe of ~1 vs ~0.5 for SPTR. Not too bad. Worst DD of 15% and crux ratio of 18-19 periods is as good as this sh*t should be.
 
Survey says... :D

selling 1m 105% calls
profit ratio 3.36
mean p&l 0.44%
median p&l 0.38%
worst trade -7.38%
stdev 1.20%
worst dd -8.07%
crux ratio 18.49

sell 1m 95% puts
profit ratio 2.11
mean p&l 0.49%
median p&l 0.82%
worst trade -8.18%
stdev 1.91%
worst dd -17.24%
crux ratio 35.13


Great info. I assume this is for SPX. Could you please let us know the test period? Thx
 
"I do feel embarrassed because I was silly enough to give you a second chance. Since you forgot to give us a link, you failed the challenge and entered my ignore."


Pekelo, you are seriously the dumbest mofo on the planet. If you have ever made a single trade in your life i'd be shocked, and if that was the case my only suggestion would be to stop trading immediately and give your money to somebody else who has at least some functional gray matter ok?

She said it in the video as clear as could be. They had an entire segment discussion on her returns where she EXPLICITELY STATED 53% in 2011.

Honestly, it's friggin impossible for someone to be as stupid as you, challenging it for 40 pages, and all you had to do was watch the f'ing video yourself. Anybody who needs this much hand holding to understand the most elementary of points is in serious need of a CAT scan.

You're saying you couldn't find it yourself? Go to Youtube, type in Tastytrade Karen, and watch the FIRST VIDEO that is listed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BquDGE9KxZQ


Step 1) Watch the video (which you should have done in the first place before putting your staggering stupidity on display here) At least watch starting at 41:00 minutes.

Step 2) Apologize. Not to me, to the forum, for subjecting them to said staggering stupidity. People here are actually trying to have an intelligent conversation about her strategies and what it all means in the grand scheme of things for us degenerate premium sellers, and your dumb ass is still stuck on the simple 53% in 2011 number. WOW !

Step 3) Quit trading and transfer your money to someone with a brain. I could help you out with that if you like. Unlike our friend Karen here, I actually have third party audits of my results going back to 2005.


end Pekelo rants/
 
Any tips for SPX yet? I was wondering if anyone has some.
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Any tips for SPX yet? I was wondering if anyone has some.
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Yes...if you are a retail trader...seriously,,, DON'T...trade SPX....trade the ES options, you can do Karen style on a micro scale ..greater flexability with 24 hr trading.
 
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