What does Karen the Supertrader and her results say about volatility? Oversold?

[Pekelo]

For those who missed it, we had a long thread 14 months ago about her and the strategy she might use, some performance numbers were also mentioned, and link to her interview:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?t=254837&highlight=Karen

 

[Surprise]

Another guy just said here they tracked her from 09 not 08 , anyway at the end if we dont have a "verified track record" then these are just claims nothing more nothing less .
GL to her anyway ...

 

[trade2live]

190 Mln AUM is a huge number , especially for a Mom at home.

110 Mln profit ... so she's up HUGE from her start, Is this for real ? What's the name of her firm ? Surely she must be tracked by third party marketers ! So we could look at the performance .

 

[RichardRimes]

She is NOT just a "mom" at home. She was a trained financial person prior to trading her own money. She is a smart savvy woman who happens to be a mom, just as there are smart savvy men who happen to be dads. geez

 

[Dolemite]

She is NOT just a "mom" at home. She was a trained financial person prior to trading her own money. She is a smart savvy woman who happens to be a mom, just as there are smart savvy men who happen to be dads. geez

Just think of the books she could sell. How a mom at home made 110million in her spare time.

 

[Pekelo]

Just think of the books she could sell. How a mom at home made 110million in her spare time.

1. She is a grandma, pushing 60...
2. She didn't make 110 million. That's how much the AUM grew, not pure profits.
3. There isn't too much money in book publishing anymore. Specially for a story what Hollywood is not interested in...

 

[trade2live]

OK then that's already one of the inaccuracies of the story (on youtube), it said of the 190 Mln, 110 were profits. In that case since she certainly did not start off with 80 Mln, she would have made out- of- this- world returns.

But the fact that she has 190 Mln AUM sounds in itself rather implausible. If so what's the name of the firm ? There aren't so many Commodity Trading Advisors with that kind of AUM, it's really tough to go over 10 Mln that 's for NFA registered advisors with credentials etc. And this Mom at home attracted 190 Mln which makes her as big as some very old firms ? ( JW Henry Co closed last year because it had only 100 Mln AUM !, just to tell you the environment). A t that level, it also means institutional money ( going to a Mom at home ?) Why don't ' we hear anything about her firm ? Only that she is a genius trader . btw I don't think it's possible to manage that kind of money in th eUS without being a registered firm.

 

[Pekelo]

I am going to quote from the previous thread, because people are unwilling to click on the link, or watch the video, so here are the numbers:

For the lazy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXy9HoWX0es

OK, since most people didn't watch the video, the title of this thread AND the Youttube video are both missleading. Here is what happened:

2002 Opens account with 10K trades part time.

2007 Light bulb goes on and decides to go fulltime. She opens account with 100K. There is no indication of returns between 2002 and 2007!!!

2008 She makes 50%. When at 150K people gave her more money, so she ends up with 750-800K or so.

She keeps rising money and trade options, and end up with 80 million and 41 million of it is profit. There is no indication or mention of returns except once....So it is entirely possible she never had a bigger than 50-200% return...

Right now she is managing 160 mill and made 56 mill in a not clearly classified time period.

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Here is the 2nd video, they discuss absolute returns in the first 4 mins:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BquDGE9KxZQ

Summary: She has 2 different funds, 190 mill, and 105 mill of it is profit. I think the period is 3+years...

Fund A: From 42 mill to 95 mill
Fund B: From 1.3 mill to 27 mill then to 95 mill (included more fundings)

So contrary to indications, she never made 1000% returns, a big chunk of the money came from investors. Quote:

"At this point people throwing money at you right?"
"Yes."

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At 13 mins they say she is up 30% this year on 95 million.If I am getting the strategy right, she is selling both puts and calls far out, like 12% away from the current price.

So basicly she is an insurance saleswoman.... Works until the next hurrican....

The video should be called: How I make 3% a month by selling options...

Fav quote: "I never use a stop loss. I hate stop losses."

My guess is that the way she survived 2008 made her probably famous in her neck of the wood (Tennessee) and that's how she was able to raise that much money that quick. Remember her return in 2007 was 50% with her own money and if she just made breakeven in 2008, that was a helluva good performance compared to the market being down like 30%... Then another decent year in 2009, and the money kept flowing in...Then you get compound interest with 20% returns and there she is, managing just under 200 millions....

At least that's how I can explain her fund raising ability....

By the way her name and the name of her fund and everything we know is in the previous thread...

 

[Surprise]

Thanks Pekelo

OK everything is clear :

1- No track record just videos and interviews ...

2- PR agenda is clear and undeniable ...
"At this point people throwing money at you right?"
"Yes." .

3- "So contrary to indications, she never made 1000% returns a big chunk of the money came from investors. "
Its not possible to make such returns from just selling OTM options anyway .

4- Fav quote: "I never use a stop loss. I hate stop losses."
No comment .

5- "If I am getting the strategy right, she is selling both puts and calls far out, like 12% away from the current price."
12% is nothing , i bet she didn't trade at 2008 or had a huge DD or blew up .

 

[sellindexvol66]

I am going to quote from the previous thread, because people are unwilling to click on the link, or watch the video, so here are the numbers:



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My guess is that the way she survived 2008 made her probably famous in her neck of the wood (Tennessee) and that's how she was able to raise that much money that quick. Remember her return in 2007 was 50% with her own money and if she just made breakeven in 2008, that was a helluva good performance compared to the market being down like 30%... Then another decent year in 2009, and the money kept flowing in...Then you get compound interest with 20% returns and there she is, managing just under 200 millions....

At least that's how I can explain her fund raising ability....

By the way her name and the name of her fund and everything we know is in the previous thread...

admittedly i'm not following her in any depth...but selling otm vol going in to 2008 i say no chance she could have made money. i'm not sure if you guys were in there then but that spx sliced through way otm stuff like it was a hot knife in butter.

based on my belief i say in time we will find out she was a fake phoney fraud.