What do you think Trading Success Rates are??

[TradingDrills]

It depends upon the markets. Changing markets flush out the one-two trick ponies. Right now there are a lot of them. The directional bias has been strong for over a decade. The "crowd" trade is in vogue now. So as you allude to, the key is a variety of market conditions is required to make an accurate assessment. Risk management, money management, psychological management will all come more into play. If you don't have these, it will be a tough road. These are the things that need to be learned, IN ALL MARKET CONDITIONS. Sometimes they are only learned by getting chopped up or black swan roasted. Heck even a gray swan will "cook your goose" for a lot.

Perhaps OP can give some example of how people blow up, or just get ground up and how they teach not to do it. E.g how a medium strong, martingale strategy ends.

Thanks and good points Bad_Badness!

If anyone read the vantagepointtrading article carefully, these facts/numbers are true about the trading rate of success:

The chance of success for an untrained person is ZERO!

It reminds me of these Youtube video series
PART 1 - Top 10 Idiots Who Challenged Professional Fighters

Those who get some short training in prop shops may have a chance of 4.5% success!

I was getting these low rates of success from my students when my teaching was knowledge-based (Book/Videos/Webinars,...) at the beginning and not using Deliberate Practice with smart Drills!

 

[El Trado]

I was getting these low rates of success from my students when my teaching was knowledge-based (Book/Videos/Webinars,...) at the beginning and not using Deliberate Practice with smart Drills!

Here you are falling right into the trap of selectoin bias. Of course, if you base your selection on the most gullible group of traders, the ones that pay for training, instead of actually doing the work, you will get low successrate.

People that succeed is people that have a critical sense, are willing to work harf to succeed, and are generally financial litterate. Those are the same ones that would never dream of paying for training.

I am pretty sure that if you measure the success rate of people before and after paying for training, the successrate would be relatively similar. It is just the wrong type of people to begin with.....

 

[TradingDrills]

Here you are falling right into the trap of selectoin bias. Of course, if you base your selection on the most gullible group of traders, the ones that pay for training, instead of actually doing the work, you will get low successrate.

People that succeed is people that have a critical sense, are willing to work harf to succeed, and are generally financial litterate. Those are the same ones that would never dream of paying for training.

I am pretty sure that if you measure the success rate of people before and after paying for training, the successrate would be relatively similar. It is just the wrong type of people to begin with.....

Hi El Trado,

Thanks and I totally agree with your point that a major part of the success depends on the person's attitude and willingness to work hard and learn/adapt as you said.

I think the term "Coachable" would cover it completely:
- Responsible and Honest/Transparent person willing to work hard
- Flexible Adaptive Mindset
- Patient to go through repetitive drills and not get bored
- Resilient to withstand/recover quickly from difficult conditions
- Low ego and humble attitude to listen to the coach's feedback and implement it

So I agree that half of the success depends on the person's potential to grow, like a good seed that has the potential to become a fruitful tree. The other half depends on the coaching system that acts as a gardener.

Some decide to leave their potential seeds in the hands of nature's wind to take them to the right place, which has a very low chance of success but it is free.

Some like me look always proactively for the best educational and coaching systems, that act like well-experienced gardeners, to maximize/accelerate the cultivation of their seeds to full potentials in every aspect of life. They actively research to find the best institutes and coaches and meet their tough entry requirements and pay full for its price happily (with the view that this is the best investment for themselves).

 

[TradingDrills]

Here you are falling right into the trap of selectoin bias. Of course, if you base your selection on the most gullible group of traders, the ones that pay for training, instead of actually doing the work, you will get low successrate.

People that succeed is people that have a critical sense, are willing to work harf to succeed, and are generally financial litterate. Those are the same ones that would never dream of paying for training.

I am pretty sure that if you measure the success rate of people before and after paying for training, the successrate would be relatively similar. It is just the wrong type of people to begin with.....

Hi El Trado,

There was no bias in the comparison and it was not also related to whether the trader paid for the course or not as the only variable was the method of training/coaching. Let me give you some rough statistics from my training experience with lots of students since 2013 when my Training Methods changed:

1- Vidoe/webinars with Q/A ~ 5% chance of success
2- Vidoe/webinars with Q/A + Powerpoint drills sent offline ~ 10% chance of success
3- Vidoe/webinars with Q/A + Smart Drills under LMS ~ 30% chance of success
4- Vidoe/webinars with Q/A + Smart Drills under LMS+ 1-1 coaching ~ 50% chance of success

Note:
The #1 was the one that disappointed me as I spend lots of time preparing lots of videos and explaining in detail the trade conditions and expected a much higher chance of success. It was like teaching swimming outside water by videos, which is not much effective. I made this course free and still some 5% of students benefit and thank the knowledge that made them profitable.

The #2 was effective but it took lots of my personal time to provide feedback to those who completed the offline drills. Also, only 10% completed these drills as there was no enforcement, and the majority not used these effective drills.

The #4 is the best coaching system so far for us as it is completely based on deliberate practice with the smart drills that provide instant automatic feedback to students, so it will not take my personal time till Module 10. By that time if any coachable student remains in our LMS training system, then we will invest our time to coach them personally (as we have their LMS training reports and get to know them) after an interview.

By the way, 50% will never become a successful trader even with the best training system as they cannot resolve their Cognitive/Emotional mismatches.