I think we clearly established that you know nothing about economics in previous threads but are suffering from a severe Dunning Kruger effect when it comes to the subject....how's that non-farm payroll report going for you BTW?
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What do you think the state of the economy will be after the worst of the pandemic is over?
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
You may be right on personal debt, but corporate debt is at an all-time high due to low interest rates maintained by the Fed for far too long. Many companies are BBB...one level above junk. Impaired cash flow will likely be enough to push them over the edge, into junk status. If they have payments due or planned to refinance, but their cash position has deteriorated...beware.
The Covid infection rate could conceivably decline in the next month, if people continue practicing social distancing. But now you have the President saying he wants people back at work within 14 days. So, how do you keep the rate from just increasing again when the one thing that did the most to reduce it is no longer in effect? Unfortunately, due to slapdash efforts from this administration and general lack of preparedness, this contagion has no end in sight. This entire situation is a massive fiasco that was largely avoidable had appropriate measures been in place to test, quarantine, and minimize contact.
Hopefully local governments will take action where the Federal government may be lacking.
Corporate debt was super high even before this. So large businesses may default on loans. So what?
I predict a brief recession from COVID, then continued expansion of at least 3 years. The only troubling thing is that there is no more room to drop rates if "something else" happens.
I think we clearly established that you know nothing about economics in previous threads but are suffering from a severe Dunning Kruger effect when it comes to the subject....how's that non-farm payroll report going for you BTW?
Let's see if a jobs report comes out in the next few months showing a massive increase in unemployment... Then tell me it has no effect.
Go read the thread where you argued that the stock market was going to respond to the last NFP report despite it being week old data and backward looking. You know, the one where you were completely and utterly wrong, and yet somehow you insisted that I was the one who knew nothing about macro?Let's see if a jobs report comes out in the next few months showing a massive increase in unemployment... Then tell me it has no effect.
And yeah, no shit the next NFP is going to show significant unemployment. The market's been going down since your last comments exactly because it was anticipating that drop and the broader damage to the economy that represents, in case you missed it. Like I said, pretty significant Dunning Kruger on display with this one.
Go read the thread where you argued that the stock market was going to respond to the last NFP report despite it being week old data and backward looking.
You mean where you misquote me and I don't feel like responding cause you're annoying?
Although I do remember saying it would be interesting to see if even a positively surprising jobs report would stop the downward trend caused by the virus. This virus at the time hadn't reached pandemic proportions.
Never did I claim the report reflected data since the virus got bigger. Never did I make any claim as to what the market would do. I said it would be interesting to see.
You're still annoying, btw. Talking to you is worse than being on lockdown.
China saw thousands of cases per day for just over 3 weeks. They had no warning.
Italy will reach the 3 week mark on about April 1st since things have gotten very bad there. I predict things will get better in Italy shortly after that point. In fact, Italy has already seen a drop the past 2 days.
Unfortunately, NYC is just beginning. It will definitely be a rough 3-4 weeks there.
Spain is lagging behind Italy. I think Germany and France are at the worst they will get also.
This will all look very different in one month.
Italy will reach the 3 week mark on about April 1st since things have gotten very bad there. I predict things will get better in Italy shortly after that point. In fact, Italy has already seen a drop the past 2 days.
Unfortunately, NYC is just beginning. It will definitely be a rough 3-4 weeks there.
Spain is lagging behind Italy. I think Germany and France are at the worst they will get also.
This will all look very different in one month.
Seriously dude, go back and read all your posts in this thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/its-over-historical-bull-run-has-come-to-an-end.340894/ We'll all wait while you do. Literally everything you said proved to be wrong...everything! Let's just pull out a "best of" though since I know you won't go back and read the thread since self-reflection is something you're clearly incapable of.You mean where you misquote me and I don't feel like responding cause you're annoying?
Although I do remember saying it would be interesting to see if even a positively surprising jobs report would stop the downward trend caused by the virus. This virus at the time hadn't reached pandemic proportions.
Never did I claim the report reflected data since the virus got bigger. Never did I make any claim as to what the market would do. I said it would be interesting to see.
You're still annoying, btw. Talking to you is worse than being on lockdown.
I'll be interested to see the effect that the unemployment/jobs report on March 6th has. That is actual real data.
Given that:
a. Unemployment numbers are collected on the week that includes the 12th of the month which is before there would have been any impact to the U.S. economy from this, and
b. We don't lay people off immediately in response to supply chain disruptions even if we knew for certain that they might have significant impacts as they work their way through the economy, and we don't know much for certain at this point.
The unemployment data released in March for Feb will be pretty much completely irrelevant to determining anything about the current situation.
But of course with your vast macro experience you would have known that, no?
I never said the virus situation would affect the numbers at all.
My point was to see the amount that real data would affect things vs. what still might be unfounded panic by a virus that has killed exactly 1 person in the USA.
Will the markets ignore positive jobs data and focus on mass panic instead?
But keep going quoting me on things I don't say. Why am I even responding to someone with as awful a personality as yours anyway?
Again, it's basic macro that when you believe you have great uncertainty ahead, a backward looking, lagging indicator like the jobs report is of almost no value in predicting what will happen going forward. So it won't have any impact, nor should anyone with any background in this expect it to. Market participants aren't focusing on "mass panic" per se, they're focusing on the impact to the supply chain that has happened and will continue to happen. Of course only if you believe in crazy ideas like the fact that massive supply chain disruptions around the world will impact the world economy, which you've argued hard here isn't the case.
And cut the ad hominem crap...that is a sign of nothing more than a weak argument and certainly doesn't reflect well on you.
And I'm saying that perhaps this massive supply chain disruption may not even happen at
all. Perhaps the psychological factor is larger than any real factor that will ever materialize.
No it's not a sign of weak argument. It's a sign of not wanting to waste my precious time on Earth talking to you.
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-stocks-open-sharply-lower-yields-drop-virus-69434363
"Even a better-than-expected report on U.S. jobs wasn't enough to pull markets from the undertow. It's usually the most anticipated piece of economic data each month, but investors looked past February's solid hiring numbers because they came from before the new coronavirus was spreading quickly across the country."
Wow, it's like I exactly predicted how the market would look at the job's report! I'd pat myself on the back but it doesn't really reflect any supernatural prediction powers on my part, just a basic grasp of on macro. Anyone would have made the same prediction....who knew the first thing about basic macro.
And your all time best:
Macroeconomics is WAY over your head.
And let's not forget you started that thread with insisting a supply chain shock couldn't cause a recession, because (you claimed) it had never happened before and apparently nothing can happen that hasn't happened before.
I know you said elsewhere that you don't trade (which begs the question as to why you're pontificating on a forum called EliteTrader!), but if you did you should definitely just do the opposite of everything you believe to be true and you'd absolutely kill it!
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Seriously dude, go back and read all your posts in this thread https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/its-over-historical-bull-run-has-come-to-an-end.340894/ We'll all wait while you do. Literally everything you said proved to be wrong...everything! Let's just pull out a "best of" though since I know you won't go back and read the thread since self-reflection is something you're clearly incapable of.
And your all time best:
And let's not forget you started that thread with insisting a supply chain shock couldn't cause a recession, because (you claimed) it had never happened before and apparently nothing can happen that hasn't happened before.
I know you said elsewhere that you don't trade (which begs the question as to why you're pontificating on a forum called EliteTrader!), but if you did you should definitely just do the opposite of everything you believe to be true and you'd absolutely kill it!
You just proved me right with your quotes...
"I'd be interested to see". My exact words lol.
And this "supply chain disruption"... How do you know how quick the recovery will be once the virus cases start to lessen? Now is this temporary virus situation causes lots of loan defaults, then that could be a different story.
I was right about TMF yesterday. Should have held it longer. I predicted SPXL today (read it in my post) and it would be up 20% already in 1 hour but I decided not to bet against the trend.
I already have a more concrete way of making money. I'm here because it can be interesting to talk about and try sometimes (not as a primary source of income). I'm definitely not here to talk to you. Especially when I'm right, yet you still argue endlessly.