What do you think of this strategy?

[MrAgi1]

I came across the options strategy described in the videos below. The summary is we roll the short straddle up(to recenter it) if underlying price moves up 1/4 of the ATM options prices. We also do the same if the straddle moves down.

Example: A stock currently trades at $100. The 30 days ATM call and put each cost $10. So the straddle price is $20. If the underlying goes up or down by $5, then we recenter the straddle. So if it goes to $105 or $95 we have to recenter. So we keep repeating this process.

Questions:

1. I know such a strategy would incur a lot of transaction costs. That aside, the backtest from 2017 till 2022 is positive on indexes like BankNifty. What do you think of such a strategy implemented on tight bid/ask indexes like SPY? Is it bad or a stupid idea?

Nifty50 PNL curve in green, Nifty50 price chart in blue.

Nifty50 PNL curve in green.

BankNifty PNL curve in green, BankNifty price chart in blue.

BankNifty PNL curve in green.


2. Why does such a strategy have a better performance on BankNifty than on Nifty50 even though BankNifty is usually more volatile?

 

[newwurldmn]

If you are from guernsey, why are you so focused on Indian indices?

these types of rules don’t really create expected value. You need to have a view on vol.

 

[dorietrading]

Calculated it for the SPX, see results.

 

[MrAgi1]

Calculated it for the SPX, see results.

Thank you. It appears to be a poor strategy, because the losing year(2022) have a large loss.
I see 25%, are you using a fixed 25% stop loss(on the option’s premium)? The strategy I described was if the underlying’s price (not the option’s premium) moves up or down by 25% of the straddle width, then you recenter up or down.

 

[MrAgi1]

because the losing year(2022) have a large loss.

Is there a reason why 2022 is the worst performing year? I know the market kept gradually falling for most of that year, but in 2020 there was the pandemic crash which was not gradual but instantaneous for more than a month. However the resulting PNL (total) for 2020 was the most positive year. Also what is that Min/max_per_expiration?


Lastly, if you don’t mind, what platform did you use for that backtesting of SPX. It looks powerful and simplistic?

 

[newwurldmn]

Is there a reason why 2022 is the worst performing year? I know the market kept gradually falling for most of that year, but in 2020 there was the pandemic crash which was not gradual but instantaneous for more than a month. However the resulting PNL (total) for 2020 was the most positive year. Also what is that Min/max_per_expiration?


Lastly, if you don’t mind, what platform did you use for that backtesting of SPX. It looks powerful and simplistic?

In 2020 selling vol post panic was incredible.

 

[Zwaen]

When you this kind of strategies, it is also useful to include oct 14-oct 16 for the index. Since the market was flat/down this was a somewhat other market then the last year.

 

[Peter8519]

I came across the options strategy described in the videos below. The summary is we roll the short straddle up(to recenter it) if underlying price moves up 1/4 of the ATM options prices. We also do the same if the straddle moves down.

Example: A stock currently trades at $100. The 30 days ATM call and put each cost $10. So the straddle price is $20. If the underlying goes up or down by $5, then we recenter the straddle. So if it goes to $105 or $95 we have to recenter. So we keep repeating this process.

Questions:

1. I know such a strategy would incur a lot of transaction costs. That aside, the backtest from 2017 till 2022 is positive on indexes like BankNifty. What do you think of such a strategy implemented on tight bid/ask indexes like SPY? Is it bad or a stupid idea?

View attachment 303667 Nifty50 PNL curve in green, Nifty50 price chart in blue.

View attachment 303668 Nifty50 PNL curve in green.

View attachment 303669 BankNifty PNL curve in green, BankNifty price chart in blue.

View attachment 303670 BankNifty PNL curve in green.


2. Why does such a strategy have a better performance on BankNifty than on Nifty50 even though BankNifty is usually more volatile?

I do an Excel regression on close price of ^NSEI and ^NSEBANK from Yahoo Finance using LINEST(close, date, false, false) for a 10 days period. The m for ^NSEI is about 0.4 and ^NSEBANK is about 0.8. The m aka slope aka gradient aka rate of change for ^NSEBANK is double that of ^NSEI.

 

[dorietrading]

Thank you. It appears to be a poor strategy, because the losing year(2022) have a large loss.
I see 25%, are you using a fixed 25% stop loss(on the option’s premium)? The strategy I described was if the underlying’s price (not the option’s premium) moves up or down by 25% of the straddle width, then you recenter up or down.

Yes, i used 25% of premium (of complete straddle). What do you mean with 25% of width? Its a straddle, strikes are equal..

 

[dorietrading]

Is there a reason why 2022 is the worst performing year? I know the market kept gradually falling for most of that year, but in 2020 there was the pandemic crash which was not gradual but instantaneous for more than a month. However the resulting PNL (total) for 2020 was the most positive year. Also what is that Min/max_per_expiration?


Lastly, if you don’t mind, what platform did you use for that backtesting of SPX. It looks powerful and simplistic?

min an max per expiration is in table. There could be multiple trades per expiration.
I see i made a mistake both options where puts, i shall recalculate the results