We only miss how many wins and how many losses he has exactly. But i am sceptical about his results, that's why i made a quick calculation. We know he trades 2 contracts ES 3 times a day with each time 2 ticks profit. So 6 ticks per contract per day. We don't need rocketscience to know what the results are, or should be.
What do you think method of taking 2 ticks per trade
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Win rates aren't important, only positive expectancy.
Like I said, a coin toss entry with a SL=4 and a TP=2 will yield a 67% win rate but your expectancy is 0 or less.
And what about trade costs like commissions? On 2 ticks you're giving away a significant portion of your profit.
Like I said, a coin toss entry with a SL=4 and a TP=2 will yield a 67% win rate but your expectancy is 0 or less.
And what about trade costs like commissions? On 2 ticks you're giving away a significant portion of your profit.
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There is expectancy and there is reality. The only thing that counts is reality, the results in your account. So win rates are important. If expectancy is zero or less, but OP makes 90% profitable trades then the result will not be 0 or less, but positive. Expectancy is what you mathematically expect in tossing coins; reality is what you really get. His system is not a coin toss because he tries to improve his changes. If he would have a 90% winrate it would prove that it is not coin tossing.
About the commissions: in my calculations I used a 3$ RT commission. So it is already included. Without commission his profit would be between 70 and 80 K bigger.
expectancy, tk
It's odd because I don't understand hardly anything anyone is saying in their replies. I am self-taught, and I don't measure or keep track of my trading in the ways that are alluded to here. I have practiced on the simulator for 2 years before going live in October, and mediate on trading when I am away from the computer. I am single and have a lot more time to devout to practicing and thinking about trading than I suppose most people do. I didn't think people would doubt I could make 3 trades. I thought I would be reprimanded for my target/stop loss ratio. My trades almost always succeed, and quickly. If on a rare occurrence, I am fooled, I stop trading for the day and come back the next day. I only keep track of my bank account not the percentages. My daily target is $150, minus $22 for commissions. So about $130 a day. Maybe that is chump change to most of you here, I suspect it is. But for me it is the equivalent of a full-time job in my area. My monthly expenses are $1400. I am not trying to get ahead, I am just trying to trade for a living.
It's odd because I don't understand hardly anything anyone is saying in their replies. I am self-taught, and I don't measure or keep track of my trading in the ways that are alluded to here. I have practiced on the simulator for 2 years before going live in October, and mediate on trading when I am away from the computer. I am single and have a lot more time to devout to practicing and thinking about trading than I suppose most people do. I didn't think people would doubt I could make 3 trades. I thought I would be reprimanded for my target/stop loss ratio. My trades almost always succeed, and quickly. If on a rare occurrence, I am fooled, I stop trading for the day and come back the next day. I only keep track of my bank account not the percentages. My daily target is $150, minus $22 for commissions. So about $130 a day. Maybe that is chump change to most of you here, I suspect it is. But for me it is the equivalent of a full-time job in my area. My monthly expenses are $1400. I am not trying to get ahead, I am just trying to trade for a living.
I'm an engineer and was originally trained as a scientist. I can't imagine *not* measuring and analyzing things that are important.
My main question to you is what if you stopped making money one day? How would you know what went wrong and what adjustments to make to correct the situation?
Back in the roaring 90's (the dot-com bubble) it seemed like everyone and his mother were "day trading" and talking about early retirement. The average Joe doing this must've felt like a genius making money reliably day in and day out. It turned out they weren't geniuses, just following an unprecedented bull market that ended in 2000.
I'm not insulting anyone, just pointing out that you need to better understand the statistical risks involved with what you're doing. Clearly you have something good going on so why not ensure you can keep doing it indefinitely through some analysis?
My main question to you is what if you stopped making money one day? How would you know what went wrong and what adjustments to make to correct the situation?
Back in the roaring 90's (the dot-com bubble) it seemed like everyone and his mother were "day trading" and talking about early retirement. The average Joe doing this must've felt like a genius making money reliably day in and day out. It turned out they weren't geniuses, just following an unprecedented bull market that ended in 2000.
I'm not insulting anyone, just pointing out that you need to better understand the statistical risks involved with what you're doing. Clearly you have something good going on so why not ensure you can keep doing it indefinitely through some analysis?
Dude,
Why do you care about the opinions of others via your question...What do you think method of taking 2 ticks per trade ?
You said the method is working for you and its allowing you to meet your financial needs. Therefore, obviously your method is working for you via your own statement. Simply, you don't need anyone's opinions unless your questions is just a way for you to brag.
Seems like an odd way to start a thread. I saw someone else last year do the same thing at another forum about making about $500 per day trading Emini ES along with saying it allows him to trade for a living and support his family. Yet, he said he wanted the opinions of others to determine if that's good enough.
How in the heck can someone know if that's "good enough for you" when they don't know your financial needs, they don't know your personal goals...only you know that answer.
With that said, you did mentioned you went live in October in your most recent reply after you started this thread. That changes the dynamic of your initial question considering a few months of success doesn't imply long term success.
In that light, I would say keep doing what you're doing until it stops working. Then if/when it stops working...come back and ask more questions...ask for help. Yet, just remember that everyone financial needs will eventually change. Therefore, your method results today via your own words is allowing you to achieve your financial needs but that could change.
For example, what about next year ? Maybe you'll get married and start a family. Maybe you'll have health problems that results in unexpected expenses. Maybe you may want to upgrade your current living conditions to something better. Maybe someone you care about needs financial help and you then need to make more money to help that person. Maybe you will start to want better materialistic things (e.g. fancy car, remodeled kitchen)...
Simply, what's good enough today may not be good enough tomorrow for you...requiring you to change your trading plan (not your trade strategy).
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It's not beyond possibility that PM's are sought from "investors". This thread has all the ingredients to make a holy grail: 100% win, no draw downs, from someone who learnt it all by himself Jesse Livermore style, a natural gifted genius.
There is one problem, however, anyone who has the slightest clue about the markets will know demo trading cannot be translated to real trading, especially not one that has a 100% win rate.
Next time, I suggest 48.65% win rate. That would be more convincing. The $130 profit a day is a nice touch though. That passes as convincing. But that only works if the rest of the story gets a pass mark.
Perhaps I trade differently from the guys who post here. I read price action. I don't use indicators, nor do I use trend lines. The only line I will put on my chart is an occasional horizontal line. I made a mistake coming here looking for others to talk to.
shots fired,
You have a unique gift for doing the work your own way. In regards to suggestions that you need to know the tried and true scientific approaches or anything else that you're not already using ...these are just suggestions. It is my belief you will do better by sticking to inventing your own ways. It's not that I disagree with measuring things using the well known metrics but rather that when everyone is doing the same thing then it's unlikely to produce a different result than everyone else is getting.
You've accomplished something different. I have faith you will continue to adapt and attain greater success rather than fail because of some small change in the markets. If you give in to the suggestions that you should study the right way of doing things then it's more likely you will fail because it will take time away from your own original thinking, or from the important thinking of others that you yourself determined was worthy of pursuing. Please continue to think for yourself and choose for yourself which other great minds, authors or other sources agree with your approach and have helped you in the past.
Carry on as you've been doing.
Congratulations on having attained the ability to trade for a living.
Obviously, you found yourself in a regime that made your 2 ticks target profitable...a tight mean reverting regime.
Just understand that with a mean reversion system, adverse breakouts are relatively big and you will have to live with a bigger stop than your take profit.
The real challenge is...how do you know if your in mean reverting regime and when it's done. As for a strict tick 2 tick limit. Wouldn't a simple bollinger band tell you how much the mean-reversion effect is willing to give? That may raise your max profit per trade and adaptability.
Just understand that with a mean reversion system, adverse breakouts are relatively big and you will have to live with a bigger stop than your take profit.
The real challenge is...how do you know if your in mean reverting regime and when it's done. As for a strict tick 2 tick limit. Wouldn't a simple bollinger band tell you how much the mean-reversion effect is willing to give? That may raise your max profit per trade and adaptability.