What do you expect at the next Fed meeting June 28th/29th? RATE HIKE?

They should bump rates up at least 1/4 pt if inflation is indeed their main concern. It would hurt the economy in the short-term, but, would be good fiscal policy for the long-term.

With that said, there is an election year comming up so I don't expect the Fed to do anything earth shattering. However, if they are going to do something, now would be the time because I believe some states are moving their primaries up towards the beginning of the year (ie Jan I think) and I doubt they will do anything to hurt the economy in the short-term during the second half of the year on through 08.

It will be interesting to see what they do.
 
I expect to look at the implied probabilities from FFFs of a raise/stay pat/lower, and that is what I expect.

I don't have a history of the accuracy of their expectations, but I would guess FFFs are off in their probabilities 1 in 20 times or less. Why look elsewhere?

nitro
 
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