Quote from oldtime:
I don't know that much about Elliot, yeah I browsed through the book. The name has been coming up more and more often on this site. I think it is all fashion, things come and go, and if you stick with it long enough you will be hip, then and old fogie, and finally hip retro. That's why I never throw away an old tie. Sooner or later they will be back in fashion.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but they way I read your last post is, individual transactions are noise, at least in liquid markets, but mass psychology is the move. Sounds good until you try to figure out where individual transactions have crossed the line and become a mass move.
Some of us try to make a living off noise, since it requires really no prediction which takes any skill other than the common sense your mother hoped you were born with. But paying the bills is one thing, to make up for all the mistakes I make along the way I need a big move, or as you call it, "Mass Psychology." I don't know how Ellliot figures it out, for me it's just wake up one morning and the realisation, "Wow, I don't think this is just noise! We might be on to something here. And it's about time, because this noise has been chopping me to death." (and that's what noise will do to you, it will make you money a lot longer than the trend traders can hold on, but in the last days it will take away everything it gave to you and then some. Hopefully by then you are still solvent and can ride the noise free trend.)
There are enough materials out there on Elliott that if you found yourself interested, there is plenty to read. As I became more immersed in Elliott, I realized that he had made some crucial errors, rendering his specific approach pretty useless, but, as a way of thinking about the market, his approach turned out quite useful to me, specifically the ideas of "mass psychology" and not needing anything outside of price data.
It's not so much that individual transactions are "noise", it's the reasons for them that are noise. When price goes up and triggers a trade for me, the specific transaction that enabled price to hit my trigger may be from a hedge fund, a guy putting down his last $400 on a day trade or an insurance company trying to hedge variable annuity exposure. It doesn't matter. All that matters is that price hit where my stop limit was parked and now I'm in a trade.
The science of it is exactly that, to figure out when individual transactions become a trend. For that, you need to understand the logic of the market's fluctuations, or "waves". I have devised a set of rules that give me better than even odds of identifying that point.
Interestingly, since you mention noise chopping you up, the rules are so sensitive to market action that rather that put me into bad trades, it appears that the rules actually simply stop giving trade triggers when the environment isn't conducive to profitable trading. I've spent most of the past 4 months on the sidelines, but when I do get in, the trades are still profitable.

