What do we expect in the next week?

[Port1385]

I made a rough chart of the areas of resistance that I expect based upon volume of past events.

My observation is that we will need a high vix and high volume (north of 18 billion in a week) to smash through 1370. It will take some volume to get through 1406 too though. However, it will take less volume to get through 1406 then it will take to get through 1370.

The interesting part is that we are in the summer months with volume tapering back. The vix chart appears to me to be in a bear market.

We need a volatility event to create volume that will take us down past the 1370 level.

In creating this chart, I took the highest weekly volume areas to the lowest areas and placed a line at the price point. I only did the top 7 volume events within a 3 year period.

Thoughts?

 

[stock_trad3r]

The market is either going up or it isn't. If you think the market is going lower then go short. Otherwise you're just shooting off your mouth with useless hypotheticals.

 

[wiesman02]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

The market is either going up or it isn't. If you think the market is going lower then go short. Otherwise you're just shooting off your mouth with useless hypotheticals.

Holy crap ! I actually agree w/ stock Turd3r

 

[Port1385]

At this point I wouldnt go either short or long. The macro chart is bearish, but until in breaks down through 1370 on volume I wouldnt go short.

Above 1406 on volume, would make this a bull market.

Right now we are in an unconfirmed bear, but I would have patience and not make any moves until we have confirmation.

I would expect the next leg down of a bear to blow out the previous bottoms and the next target in the 1100s.

However, what are the volatility events that might cause this? Terrorist attack? Hurricane? The general news isnt forcing down the indexes.

A gambler thinks where the market is going where as a trader knows where its going. I dont move unless there is confirmation and I know whats happening.

Quote from stock_trad3r:

The market is either going up or it isn't. If you think the market is going lower then go short. Otherwise you're just shooting off your mouth with useless hypotheticals.