What do these three situations say to you?
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
- Start date
Gotta hand it to ya Jack.
It's said a trading system or methodology should be an extension of the traders personality and overall interests. Anyone who can markup and use your charts in real-time is a much more intense person than myself! Fortunately for me, intenseness is not a necessary characteristic for success in trading.
IMO, "B" remains the most bearish based on the OPs question.
Trade On!
Quote from 1a2b3cppp:
Look at the three situations below.
Which one of these situations looks most bearish to you? Which looks most bullish? Which looks like price is about to chop around and not go anywhere? Which looks like a reversal might be expected? Which looks like confirmation that the downtrend will continue?
Did you make any money out of this situation?
I like B....
Also consider some markets don't show volume though. Forex.
Volatility and Volume GENERALLY tell similar info. aka large volume bar , there should be corresponding large range for the day.
On the other hand, Large volume bar and small range for the day or doji can also tell you it was a "churn" day and price getting ready to reverse. Cause n effect .
"the situation"
Also consider some markets don't show volume though. Forex.
Volatility and Volume GENERALLY tell similar info. aka large volume bar , there should be corresponding large range for the day.
On the other hand, Large volume bar and small range for the day or doji can also tell you it was a "churn" day and price getting ready to reverse. Cause n effect .
"the situation"
Today was si,ilar to yesterday
Normal trends on bar 1 and 8, both losses for me (2 ticks each).
Bars 20 31and 45 also ended normal trends (Set C). About 20 points combined.
A long drift then a short drift ending on bars 58 and 69 , respectively. 12 more points for these.
Two quick trends (Set A)ended the day for six additional points. (bars 73 and 78).
The total net for the day was 37.1 points and ticks. an entry, 9 reversals and an exit made up the day.
A quarter is 90 calendar days ad 60 trading days.
so why don't most employees work out? they are new to "money". Getting paid in advance doesn't keep their attention.
i would say most would just learn to be robots and trade and learn the rules for filling in forms. then they would take a set of forms and trade their own money until they screw up filling in forms.
the market has continuity and if you, for some reason get out of synch, then even if the forms are self correcting, the person cannot think it out correctly.
So you just assume the extremes are approaximately correct and you just keep making the adjusments.
Failsafe arrangements in a system are very important.
I thought it was cool when the OP posed three of the four possible "n" bars. why did he omit the possibility he did. It is obvious. the omitted possibility would not have changed the context at all. he doesn't know this consciously. It is not important to know consciously. It is very important to know unconsciously.
what we see in all these threads of the OP is his unconscious mind making rapid progress.
You all know what happens when he reads my posts 6 months from now. He gets the same result all people do at that future time.
Pekelo has been percolating for several months. He did not know how settlement works a few months ago. See what happens when he learns what settlement really is AND he reads the conversations from those prior months.
A person here who says he can't do work to learn. Will he learn to be able to work in 6 months?I watched Drs in trauma. They watched me. we agreed that we were different. they would stand against the wall in trauma. I didn't have to do that on a double shift. neither did they in 6 months.
All trading comes down to one thing: reversing on "c" turns and holding on all other turns ("a" and "b").
A "c" turn is the one where the sentiment goes from dominant to the opposite dominance. as was said in the OP's thread. "I figured out the answer in five seconds". Why was the figuring so slow? Obviously the person has to do what he does consciously and that is very time consuming.
the Op did not need 5 seconds to leave out a choce that did not change the context. He did it "automatically" which is a very fast thinking spped.
What is it like to "Put The Pieces Together?" Its "automatic" and unconscious perception.
Read Bass's book and see quants quit. the title, well chosen by the author and the publisher to create sales: "The Predictors"
We can see that the OP is not a predictor. we see that .... right? yes we are way past screwing up by predicting.
keeley wrote a formula to deal with guaranteeing that their would not be information losses in transmitting devices. some clown stole it to mis-apply it to trading. They proved that traders need to keep all their money on the sielines.
I give my employee capital for 1oo contracts in four exchanges to trade four very similar instruments that each do the same thing. wy does he do what I say for 1 million dollars a year plus a bonus of 1 million? It is because I insist. his cost is trivial to me.
the market only operates in ne way and he is using that way.
QED.
Isnât the quotation above just a little bit overstated?
I, like the OP, cherish fifth grade (public school not Montessori) answers. Since most fifth graders are not going to put the pieces together on your RDBMS system, they stick with âThe Patternâ, âVolume leads Priceâ, etcâ¦. your methodology as roughly outlined in Spyderâs journal. Those fifth graders in Montessori may even make use of âharmonicsâ but those in public school probably do not.
As I understand your lettering of the moves, to a fifth grader a move from âaâ to âbâ to âaâ to âbâ â¦. looks just like a move from âaâ to âbâ to âcâ to âaâ ⦠for the majority of the time. Quite often, only until the âcâ to âaâ portion of the a-b-c-a move goes from decreasing volume to increasing volume do the two series of moves above differ from each other. (A fifth grader might see this portion of the move as post-FTT , then pre-RTL breakout, and finally post-RTL breakout when the two series above finally differ from each other.)
So, on behalf of my fellow students trading like a fifth grader as described above, my public school question is:
How can we âknowâ to reverse at âcâ if we cannot know, until after the fact, if the âcâ is going to turn out to be an âaâ or a âcâ? (We fifth graders donât know until after the fact so we reverse at what appears could be âcâ, but we just donât know in real time. As a result, we have many more trades than weâd like because often what we see as âcâ really just becomes another âbâ to âaâ move.)
-river
very very cool post.
Notice how smoothly another classmate listen and answers.
You understand "The Pattern" and the points of price in the pattern.
Money is made on P the dependent variable.
as we speak the attached is going on
Look the chart over and see the "c" boxes.
just get a picutre of how a little person could draw lines from "c" box to "c" box and be happy.
Yesterday I posted the net for a few of such trades. 37 points worth
The day before was 35 points.
I believe you are correct. I gree a person can use the geomtry of the dependent variable and do turns in an OOE that works just fine.
The Nuclear Era brought us fail safe kind of thinking.
So I have gone through how FAIL SAFE works in any assortment of profitable trading approaches.
the geometry was built by using the smallest fasteast fractal to construct the trading frctal a slower observable fractal
A long became B2B 2R 2B to show three price moves making up a complete normal trend.
B2B was P1 to T1 to P2 on the volume chart. 2R was P2 to T@ on the volume chart. 2b was T2 to P3 on the volume chart.
The OOE on price was four nodes. The OOE on volume was five nodes. n-1 links for each OOE.
Trends overlapped between P3 (the new P1) and T1.
"c" turns are dominant to dominant turns. In price this is FTT and in volume it is called P3 where P is a relative peak.
So I gave the OP a sheet to record the "c" turns and the turn before the "c" turn for the four "types" of trends.
You speak of the normal trend because you are correct it is the "FOUNDATION".
To have a person learn to trade as an expert in 20 days is a normal goal, I believe.
The one pager that contains all the answrs for 'c' turns for each of the four types of trends seems like a sheet to fill in. I filled mine in.
What I see in publis forums the world over is people getting surprised by unexpected events.
there re many ways to make money. maybe a person could use the three kinds of turns as a back up to prevent surprises when designing of using an approach.
I believe that naming things can be done easily since it can be done in a rule based manner.
You post shows how adroitly you focus on an issue and use terminology to make your point.
All the annotations are there because a rule based system was used. colors help focus as well. I am soory TN can't dega to make it perfect. their displays also have byte limitations that cause crashing at some point of rule load up.
You explain that fifth graders cannot use single page look up tables. I felt that they could delight in seeing an n-1 event and look up the coming n event to be focussed on its arrival or not.
we had a "b" turn on bar 74. It means that the sentiment went from non dominant to dominant in a short trend..
We were at a to b to a to b. this is a dfirfting trend a Set D subset for types of trends.
kids love to look at the classroom wall and point at the Set D, I would suppose. I think they would make a wall chart with the N-1 column in alphanumeric order for each of the four horizontal parts.
they can find Set D.
they can find the "b" location for PP3.
Can they use a table as a look up table? for addition they do. for multiplication they do. They do use dictionaries and even laptops.
If the next event is NOT in the table on the wall they are NOT going to go kooky. At some time in the 20 days of learning they will become triumphant when they do not see it.
For them it means WE ARE GOING TO MAKE MORE MONEY!!!!!!!!
If they see it, they will not get their 60MM mortars out and launch them against the school administration. Instead they will go into "carving THE TURN mode".
I put out boxes of money along walls. Yesterday the kids who lasted all day and made money, picked up 175,000 fake dollars to take home and put in their kitchen refrigerator jars. their dad always asks how much they put in the IRS tax jar. In the '60's we just traded stocks using position trading. we did complete 1040's in March. and some kid always really mailed it in. then he got to deal with the real IRS telephonicallly.
In trading, I think it is reasonable to have look up tables for turns and bands.
just get a picutre of how a little person could draw lines from "c" box to "c" box and be happy.
Yesterday I posted the net for a few of such trades. 37 points worth
The day before was 35 points.
I believe you are correct. I gree a person can use the geomtry of the dependent variable and do turns in an OOE that works just fine.
The Nuclear Era brought us fail safe kind of thinking.
So I have gone through how FAIL SAFE works in any assortment of profitable trading approaches.
the geometry was built by using the smallest fasteast fractal to construct the trading frctal a slower observable fractal
A long became B2B 2R 2B to show three price moves making up a complete normal trend.
B2B was P1 to T1 to P2 on the volume chart. 2R was P2 to T@ on the volume chart. 2b was T2 to P3 on the volume chart.
The OOE on price was four nodes. The OOE on volume was five nodes. n-1 links for each OOE.
Trends overlapped between P3 (the new P1) and T1.
"c" turns are dominant to dominant turns. In price this is FTT and in volume it is called P3 where P is a relative peak.
So I gave the OP a sheet to record the "c" turns and the turn before the "c" turn for the four "types" of trends.
You speak of the normal trend because you are correct it is the "FOUNDATION".
To have a person learn to trade as an expert in 20 days is a normal goal, I believe.
The one pager that contains all the answrs for 'c' turns for each of the four types of trends seems like a sheet to fill in. I filled mine in.
What I see in publis forums the world over is people getting surprised by unexpected events.
there re many ways to make money. maybe a person could use the three kinds of turns as a back up to prevent surprises when designing of using an approach.
I believe that naming things can be done easily since it can be done in a rule based manner.
You post shows how adroitly you focus on an issue and use terminology to make your point.
All the annotations are there because a rule based system was used. colors help focus as well. I am soory TN can't dega to make it perfect. their displays also have byte limitations that cause crashing at some point of rule load up.
You explain that fifth graders cannot use single page look up tables. I felt that they could delight in seeing an n-1 event and look up the coming n event to be focussed on its arrival or not.
we had a "b" turn on bar 74. It means that the sentiment went from non dominant to dominant in a short trend..
We were at a to b to a to b. this is a dfirfting trend a Set D subset for types of trends.
kids love to look at the classroom wall and point at the Set D, I would suppose. I think they would make a wall chart with the N-1 column in alphanumeric order for each of the four horizontal parts.
they can find Set D.
they can find the "b" location for PP3.
Can they use a table as a look up table? for addition they do. for multiplication they do. They do use dictionaries and even laptops.
If the next event is NOT in the table on the wall they are NOT going to go kooky. At some time in the 20 days of learning they will become triumphant when they do not see it.
For them it means WE ARE GOING TO MAKE MORE MONEY!!!!!!!!
If they see it, they will not get their 60MM mortars out and launch them against the school administration. Instead they will go into "carving THE TURN mode".
I put out boxes of money along walls. Yesterday the kids who lasted all day and made money, picked up 175,000 fake dollars to take home and put in their kitchen refrigerator jars. their dad always asks how much they put in the IRS tax jar. In the '60's we just traded stocks using position trading. we did complete 1040's in March. and some kid always really mailed it in. then he got to deal with the real IRS telephonicallly.
In trading, I think it is reasonable to have look up tables for turns and bands.
You see a possible winner but it turns into a loser, right ?.... but what of the trader whom took the other side of your trade? Were they the likely loser who became the unlikely winner ? So now you know that someone knows your intentions, you can now work out their own, correct ? and what if u consider their position and come to understand that they haven't even started to consider yours???? would u like to trade against this person?