What do people think of all the Trafalgar polls that show Trump winning the election?

K

kmgilroy89

They predicted Trump's win in 2016 when other polls showed Clinton up, but the 2016 polls were showing a tighter match up than 2020 is today. However, Trafalgar's spread from other existing polls today is much wider. Their polls in the swing states are generally in line with the actual 2016 results. Apparently they ask respondents who they think their neighbors are voting for and factor that into their analysis. I think this could be biased and over count the Trump vote since people don't want to "get fooled again". Trump voters are obviously way more enthusiastic than Biden voters. Biden excites almost nobody, but there's obviously a huge enthusiastic "anybody but Trump" vote.

Here are some of their polls:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
 
kmgilroy89 said:
They predicted Trump's win in 2016 when other polls showed Clinton up, but the 2016 polls were showing a tighter match up than 2020 is today. However, Trafalgar's spread from other existing polls today is much wider. Their polls in the swing states are generally in line with the actual 2016 results. Apparently they ask respondents who they think their neighbors are voting for and factor that into their analysis. I think this could be biased and over count the Trump vote since people don't want to "get fooled again". Trump voters are obviously way more enthusiastic than Biden voters. Biden excites almost nobody, but there's obviously a huge enthusiastic "anybody but Trump" vote.

Here are some of their polls:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/
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People sport campaign signs in their yards in my neighborhood. I see roughly equal numbers of Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris signs. Maybe slightly more Trump-Pence signs.

I don't see any slogan signs, just the minimalist signs with the candidates names.

I have never placed a political sign on my lawn and I prefer to be somewhat enigmatic about my past and my political outlook. I vote and that is enough. I don't respond to polls or discuss politics outside of this forum because all my friends and family are leftists.

One exception though. An ex-gf called last night and told me she has registered independent and will vote for Trump. I was stunned for a moment because she used to complain bitterly about Trump and spew the party talking points at me constantly. Not saying that represents any kind of trend but she was clear that she did not like riots and violence.
 
Snarkhund said:
Not saying that represents any kind of trend but she was clear that she did not like riots and violence.
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As I said the other day:

It's about Maslow's hierarchy. The Dems love to boast about how they have the suburban soccer mom vote- but just one riot in their area will convert the whole bunch to Safety Moms.

More thinking about safety than self-actualization going on these days in many areas.



Maslows-Hierarchy-of-Needs.jpg
 
Snarkhund said:
People sport campaign signs in their yards in my neighborhood. I see roughly equal numbers of Trump-Pence and Biden-Harris signs. Maybe slightly more Trump-Pence signs.

I don't see any slogan signs, just the minimalist signs with the candidates names.

I have never placed a political sign on my lawn and I prefer to be somewhat enigmatic about my past and my political outlook. I vote and that is enough. I don't respond to polls or discuss politics outside of this forum because all my friends and family are leftists.

One exception though. An ex-gf called last night and told me she has registered independent and will vote for Trump. I was stunned for a moment because she used to complain bitterly about Trump and spew the party talking points at me constantly. Not saying that represents any kind of trend but she was clear that she did not like riots and violence.
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My personal experience is that the people switching are reluctant 2016 Trump voters who hated Hillary and wanted to give the businessman a chance. They were hopeful he would be more moderate and stop appealing to the base once he got into office, but he never did. They weren't enthusiastic Obama supporters, but prefer him to Trump and think Biden won't be too far left when he gets into office. They never would have supported Bernie. I don't know any Hillary2016/Trump2020 voters. I know of one Johnson2016/Trump2020 voter. Most of the people I talk politics with are college educated men.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Actually, you are exactly backwards on this.
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I don't know a single person switching from Hillary to Trump. Everybody who voted for Hillary that I know still hates the guy. I know of one Johnson voter who says Biden is being driven too far to the left and is too senile to know what's going on. That's my personal experience. Everybody's might be different from mine.
 
kmgilroy89 said:
I don't know a single person switching from Hillary to Trump. Everybody who voted for Hillary that I know still hates the guy. I know of one Johnson voter who says Biden is being driven too far to the left and is too senile to know what's going on. That's my personal experience. Everybody's might be different from mine.
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Lifelong Democrat Tells Trump Why He'll Be the First Republican He's Ever Voted For
https://www.westernjournal.com/lifelong-democrat-tells-trump-first-republican-ever-voted/
Longtime civil rights attorney and talk radio host Leo Terrell told President Donald Trump that he will vote for his re-election, marking the first Republican presidential candidate he has ever voted for.
 
Buy1Sell2 said:
Lifelong Democrat Tells Trump Why He'll Be the First Republican He's Ever Voted For
https://www.westernjournal.com/lifelong-democrat-tells-trump-first-republican-ever-voted/
Longtime civil rights attorney and talk radio host Leo Terrell told President Donald Trump that he will vote for his re-election, marking the first Republican presidential candidate he has ever voted for.
More...
Never heard of that guy, but there's always some lifelong whatever switching. I don't know a single person like this in my personal life though. I mean some black people even voted for David Duke. I see a lot more prominent Republicans switching to Biden though than Democrats switching to Trump. This is particularly true of retired Republican politicians who don't have to worry about going against the base.
 
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