What Do Hedge Funds Think of Technical Analysis?

[SunTrader]

TA = math, math = TA. Look no further than RenTec.

For a loooong time now all of Wall Street has speculated about what is in their algo's.

Who's to say if something like 3 bars (whatever timeframe) does XYZ, then buy, sell 2 bars later. And all kinds of other scenarios/conditions.

That is math, that is TA.

 

[longandshort]

TA = math, math = TA. Look no further than RenTec.

For a loooong time now all of Wall Street has speculated about what is in their algo's.

Who's to say if something like 3 bars (whatever timeframe) does XYZ, then buy, sell 2 bars later. And all kinds of other scenarios/conditions.

That is math, that is TA.

That’s literally not what they do lol. They run a team of 100s of phds who are running linear regressions and causality studies. No one there is looking at candlesticks.

Also, math = quantitative analysis. “Technical data” is quantitive, but “technical analysis” is garbage.

 

[Concinnity]

Wouldn’t you think that the people that actually get paid and make money in the markets would use the most effective ways to make that money? If that was TA wouldn’t they use it? You’re saying an amateur trader making $20-30k a year is equivalent that the risk takers and traders pulling in…billions?

Idk dude, maybe you take the study of a rando as equivalent to a surgeon but I am not sure you’d like them operate on you…

I never said that? Scaling can be an issue for certain types of trades. By the time scaling would even begin to be an issue for me personally, I will have already had the amount of resources I personally would need or want for my life. So I don't understand why I should overly concern myself with someone making billions, when they have the resources, technology, connections and access to things currently far beyond my reach. What sense would that make at the current moment? I should not use the TA that is working very well for me, because someone making billions says it doesn't work? Or they can't employ some of the strategies I use due to scalability and potential sizing issues?

I am going off of results I've seen from others, as well as my personal experience trading and don't really have a dog in the fight if others agree or disagree. With that said your random equivalent to a surgeon comparison fails to make sense to me. What is your suggestion, I stop doing what is working because people managing billions of dollars don't or can't apply the same strategies I do?

If you're talking about hundreds of thousands to in the lower end of millions per year, than if I had the resources you do, fairly confident I would do just as well as you if not better.

If we're talking about making hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, than in that case I can fully admit am not currently in a position to speak on that and would have to drastically change what I do and how I do it, to pull in that type of income.

 

[longandshort]

I am going off of results I've seen from others, as well as my personal experience trading and don't really have a dog in the fight if others agree or disagree.

Okay I think we are getting off topic. I'm glad that you have found some mentors and a way to make money with charts, good for you. Would love to see some evidence that it works, but I get that you probably do not have any.

 

[destriero]

 

[Concinnity]

Okay I think we are getting off topic. I'm glad that you have found some mentors and a way to make money with charts, good for you. Would love to see some evidence that it works, but I get that you probably do not have any.

Oh so you're willing to meet us in person and/or you're looking to partner / assist up and coming traders? Otherwise what is the point of proof? Unless you don't believe what I said regarding not caring about being right. Not here to waste time in silly debates. I've stated what me and the person I trade with are doing. We're trading the online prop firm accounts and we have multiple accounts, some are eligible for pay outs and we are working on growing them.

In the meantime the person I trade with is about to acquire funds soon, that will be used for trading a live account, which will be our primary focus. Once we have both results on the prop firm accounts and than also on the live account(which obviously people take more seriously), than I have other contacts that would be willing to help us take things to the next level.

 

[longandshort]

Oh so you're willing to meet us in person and/or you're looking to partner / assist up and coming traders? Otherwise what is the point of proof? Unless you don't believe what I said regarding not caring about being right. Not here to waste time in silly debates. I've stated what me and the person I trade with are doing. We're trading the online prop firm accounts and we have multiple accounts, some are eligible for pay outs and we are working on growing them.

In the meantime the person I trade with is about to acquire funds soon, that will be used for trading a live account, which will be our primary focus. Once we have both results on the prop firm accounts and than also on the live account(which obviously people take more seriously), than I have other contacts that would be willing to help us take things to the next level.

The point of evidence is to demonstrate a claim is true. E.g. “here is what the returns look like on a 10 year period if you trade using charts” or “here’s what our hypothetical performance looks like based upon our strategy we are working on” etc.

Otherwise what’s the basis for your view? Like why do you think you can make money using your approach if you don’t have proof you can?

 

[destriero]

I never said that? Scaling can be an issue for certain types of trades. By the time scaling would even begin to be an issue for me personally, I will have already had the amount of resources I personally would need or want for my life. So I don't understand why I should overly concern myself with someone making billions, when they have the resources, technology, connections and access to things currently far beyond my reach. What sense would that make at the current moment? I should not use the TA that is working very well for me, because someone making billions says it doesn't work? Or they can't employ some of the strategies I use due to scalability and potential sizing issues?

I am going off of results I've seen from others, as well as my personal experience trading and don't really have a dog in the fight if others agree or disagree. With that said your random equivalent to a surgeon comparison fails to make sense to me. What is your suggestion, I stop doing what is working because people managing billions of dollars don't or can't apply the same strategies I do?

If you're talking about hundreds of thousands to in the lower end of millions per year, than if I had the resources you do, fairly confident I would do just as well as you if not better.

If we're talking about making hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, than in that case I can fully admit am not currently in a position to speak on that and would have to drastically change what I do and how I do it, to pull in that type of income.

HF don't avoid TA bc of capacity issues.

Anyone here with the ability to backtest can provide a working method and the only certainty is that it's curve-fitted. If you make money solely from TA then it's either 1) beta or 2) you are discretionary and your subconscious is better at pattern reco than the RSI-oscillator thingy you think that you're acting on.

 

[Concinnity]

The point of evidence is to demonstrate a claim is true. E.g. “here is what the returns look like on a 10 year period if you trade using charts” or “here’s what our hypothetical performance looks like based upon our strategy we are working on” etc.

Otherwise what’s the basis for your view? Like why do you think you can make money using your approach if you don’t have proof you can?

I know several traders who have traded via charts for 25+ years, 11+ and 7+ years all were successful and for all of them trading was either their primary income source or a large part of it. The TA and concepts they use are similar to mine. So that is my starting point. We've passed multitude of the online prop firm test, that have live trailing draw down, moved to the funded stage and some of the accounts are in a position for withdrawals.

We've had people trade live with us and watch us and it was good enough for them to want to assist us in what we're doing. So those are the factors I have currently. If they aren't good enough for you, all I can do is apologize.

 

[Concinnity]

HF don't avoid TA bc of capacity issues.

Anyone here with the ability to backtest can provide a working method and the only certainty is that it's curve-fitted. If you make money solely from TA then it's either 1) beta or 2) you are discretionary and your subconscious is better at pattern reco than the RSI-oscillator thingy you think that you're acting on.

Well all I know is I see the amount of contracts traded from my entry to my target and if I were to apply large size to that it would definitely effect what I make, if not completely price out some of my fills. It's possible I don't understand, but how could sizing not potentially be an issue for me in this case? Some of my trades are on very small charts, aka pretty tight stop and relatively small profit target.