What defines an "Edge".

Blueline · Mar 30, 2015

I would consider "inside information" to be cheating to say the least...but yes, it can be viewed as an edge....a temporary one until caught. Then another one arrives as there is always "new information".

There is a "permanent" edge isn't there?

fortydraws · Mar 30, 2015

Blueline said:
There is a "permanent" edge isn't there?

Yes. So long as the market is what it has been and continues to be. You can find quite a few price action edges shared here at ET. But if you want to understand what "edge" means and how to use your research and testing to calculate it you will need to look beyond a trading message board. You will need to gather the statistics that give you a win rate and tell you how much your minimum bet (amount risked in your initial stop loss) is and what your profit will be on those instances where you profit. "Edge" refers to the mathematical advantage you enjoy due to the higher probability of one outcome rather than another occurring. Money management is not an edge, but money management can maximize the ROI of an edge or lead to ruin in spite of an edge. But it is not itself an edge.

trickshot · Mar 30, 2015

For sure there are true edges that allow traders to profit from market inefficiencies, but there are not likely to have anything to do with being able to predict the markets' direction, they are also not likely to be permanent.

dbphoenix · Mar 30, 2015

trickshot said:
For sure there are true edges that allow traders to profit from market inefficiencies, but there are not likely to have anything to do with being able to predict the markets' direction, they are also not likely to be permanent.

A PA approach that is based on a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable trading plan will not fail as it is self-correcting and self-adapting, i.e., it will be permanent.

Brianharvey · Mar 30, 2015

trickshot said:
For sure there are true edges that allow traders to profit from market inefficiencies, but there are not likely to have anything to do with being able to predict the markets' direction, they are also not likely to be permanent.

There are people on other trading forums who appear to be able to predict the market direction with great accuracy and consistency.

redbaron1981 · Mar 30, 2015

Brianharvey said:
There are people on other trading forums who appear to be able to predict the market direction with great accuracy and consistency.

Would you mind letting me have there handles so I can check them out?

Brianharvey · Mar 30, 2015

redbaron1981 said:
Would you mind letting me have there handles so I can check them out?

Off top of my head
Pavillion103 from aussiestockforums.
DowJones, MajorMagnum, beachtrader, wallstreetwarrior from trade2win.
Vader7
Elitetrader: saliva/schizo, volente

redbaron1981 · Mar 30, 2015

Brianharvey said:
Off top of my head
Pavillion103 from aussiestockforums.
DowJones, MajorMagnum, beachtrader, wallstreetwarrior from trade2win.
Vader7
Elitetrader: saliva/schizo, volente

Thanks

trickshot · Mar 30, 2015

Brianharvey said:
There are people on other trading forums who appear to be able to predict the market direction with great accuracy and consistency.

But for how long? You realise that they need to be able to do this consistently over several years in order for you to eliminate the element of luck?

zdreg · Mar 30, 2015

trickshot said:
For sure there are true edges that allow traders to profit from market inefficiencies, but there are not likely to have anything to do with being able to predict the markets' direction, they are also not likely to be permanent.

it is unimportant whether the edges are permanent or not. you keep looking for new ones or even look at old ones which may reappear.
your post is noteworthy because it dispels the notion that that an edge means being a market predictor.