What could possibly kill gold? Name one
- Thread starter schizo
- Start date
With the government owing $14+ trillion, they can't increase rates to 7 or 8%.
Real inflation is at least 5 or 6% currently, I'd bet.
Real inflation is at least 5 or 6% currently, I'd bet.
The Covel crowd flipping from long to short.
BINGO!!
And there will be "incentives" along the way. Tax regulation has the power to change the quantification of "beating inflation". Just remember the real purpose of an incentive is to influence (our) behavior, which may or may not be a "solution".
Quote from schizo:
When gold blew past 500, everyone thought it was too expensive. Now after 6 years of nonstop advance and nearly triple the money you would have made since, I'm really beginning to think this damn thing is living beyond its shelf life. Frankly, I've not thought much about gold until now.
So I'm trying to come up with a list of macroeconomic reasons that might precipitate its demise.
As a starter, let me state what I believe would cause gold to rise:
- war
- hyperinflation
So, naturally, in times of peace and tame inflation (or even mild deflation), gold should fall. Well, so I'm told.
State one macroeconomic reason that you believe will send the price of gold south.
I think your onto the wrong trade. Gold will likely stay high or possibly even rally higher on the perception/threat of higher inflation rates, even if these rates don't occur.
Just reading Elitetrader should give you some idea on the psyche of the gold crowd and how some camps perceive markets right now. The one certainty if we can call it that is UNCERTAINTY.
This is usually good for Gold.
I believe Gold is consolidating short term and needs to touch $1500 before any bearish trends can even think to occur. That being said, Gold is very hard to read and easy to be wrong on.
Hyperinflation is not like inflation because its not a gradual rise in prices/devaluation of currency.
Instead it is a loss of confidence in a currency proceeding from a banana republic like we have now, to and ending in a complete panic out of a currency, and its typical cause is money printing, or QE in fancy new central banker speak.
In the history of the world, there have been very few times any paper currency became a "reserve currency", ie traded with as well as held longer term by other nations. All the one I can think of ended very, very badly.
Instead it is a loss of confidence in a currency proceeding from a banana republic like we have now, to and ending in a complete panic out of a currency, and its typical cause is money printing, or QE in fancy new central banker speak.
In the history of the world, there have been very few times any paper currency became a "reserve currency", ie traded with as well as held longer term by other nations. All the one I can think of ended very, very badly.
Quote from nazzdack:
people are in that "crowd"?....5, 6, or 7?
I mean the firms he <i>writes about</i>, not his personal fans.
2 things can kill gold. If the US stops spending more than it takes in and starts paying off its $14 Trillion+ deficit.
or
Some random guy falls into a hole somewhere in the desert and finds an undiscovered cave with a 1 million tons of unmined gold in it.
or
Some random guy falls into a hole somewhere in the desert and finds an undiscovered cave with a 1 million tons of unmined gold in it.