What could be a catalyst for a 20-30% rally?

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

Why do those think there should be a rally? INDU vs. NIKKI, I suggest you look at those charts over the last 20 years and compare.

IMHO, no rally in sight for a Decade, plenty of reasons. Main one is loss of confidence, which will not return for a decade at least.

Loss of wealth from the Middle Class, who will not have much to pump into the markets.

Cash is the new king, period. Play's in Hard Assets are more likley this decade than stocks. We know Inflation is on the horizon.

Nationalizatio of Banks sends a signal to the New Administrations Socialism. Not good for "Stocks".

The media, president keep hammering the "DEPRESSION", non stop. They have yet to speak of hope.

So, in a nutshell....I think this market INDU S&P, NAS., will drift to put in lower lows and once it finds a "bottom" will trend sideways for a decade.

Ok, this post says a lot about the ignorance this fellow represents. Thank god for history to find definitive proof what kind of imbecile we have on here pretending to be a big player.

Could this guy have been any more wrong.

NO. HE'S CLUELESS, AND ITS ON RECORD HERE FOR EVERYONE TO SEE.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from S2007S:

You need to wake up from your dream, you really think this will be over "FASTER than you dingbats can cover your shorts"....

That is a foolish response, you actually think the biggest credit crisis in this nations history is going to be over so soon, I feel sorry for you, expect this to last alot longer than you think, the stimulus plan IS NOT GOING TO WORK. Aside from that this market will trade down another 15-25%. Every fool who thought the lows of november 21st were going to hold will be proven very wrong. This market has NO catalyst and will not have one for many years. As I said earlier and will repeat myself till you actually understand me, this economy is not going to turn around for at least another 5-7 years, the DOW and the rest of the indexes will not see new highs for at least a DECADE or more, no need to rush in and buy. Only reason to buy will be for the short term 10-20% rally that every bear market has, of course that will fool every bull to thinking the next bull market is here but all you should expect is a return to new lows and a market that will trade sideways for many, many, many years to come. See you at dow 7000 and eventually 6500.

Dont get too bullish on any rally to 8000, you will just be fooled like every other bull to thinking the worst is over, the worst has yet to come for this market.

Ok, Buddy, just how much money did you lose chasing this pipedream of a permanently damaged US market ?

THANK GOD FOR HISTORY IT REVEALS MUCH ABOUT THE IGNORANCE ON THIS SITE.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Quote from Kassz007:

I am not as bullish as you but I definitely agree this recession will be shorter than most bears want us to believe. Certainly it will be shorter than S2007S is predicting. Recessions breed this type of panic and negative thinking. During every single recession there are always people believing "this is the big one", "this is the one that brings us back to the depression".

I am sure the bears will reply to this post with their reasons why this is in fact "the big one" that won't recover for x amount of years but again, every single recession breeds the same type of thinking.

I was going long March 2009, not to the extent I should have, but I simply cannot believe we are at S&P 1257 and some of the same stupid permabears are still posting the same shitty analysis almost two years later.

THANK GOD FOR HISTORY IT IS VERY REVEALING.

ps RIMM made how much money this quarter ? You wouldn't think Blackberry's would be so popular in a "depression".

 

[Algo_Design_Kid]

Quote from dtrader98:

I don't know the exact answer. But, I recall during the 03 bottom, what started the market roaring was a series of earnings reports that were considered better than expected; starting with yahoo. I know I was rudely awakened on a few shorts, waiting for capitulation as all the (clueless) pundits made sure to advise.
Shorts were roasted on the blast-off.

One could argue that the setting was in place with the massive lowering of interest rates and the steeply + sloped yield curve (as it is today), but those are the specific events that really ignited the rally as I recall.

There was an objective study done with regards to fractals (similar to elliot, but on more scientific grounds) about late 06-mid 07 or so. I didn't believe the author when he said to expect a 30% retrace in markets, since they were doing so well. Oddly enough, he was spot on, except for the fact that the retrace has been worse than 30%. That being said, his analysis was that a monstrous rally was in the works after that retrace. I'm still watching. And his work is about the only 'objective' study of fractals related to elliot that I've personally seen.

There was a layman's book I found pretty fascinating, titled, 'the singularity is near.'
to make a long story short; growth in every type of system is growing exponentially fast (concluding that machines and human knowledge are on a path to merge, but I digress). The exponential growth curve is still alive on every major index (including inflation), implying to me that this is only a setback (albeit a major one) that will look like a blip on that exponential curve in hindsight.

Nice post in hindsight