What could be a catalyst for a 20-30% rally?

Quote fromEMRGlo- Kassz007:''Cash is king/hard assets

Aren't you contradicting yourself here? If inflation is on the horizon (which it is), then cash most certainly would NOT be king.

Anything BUT cash would be king.
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Certainly could be posible,K007;
but cash is king & hard assets/real estate/metals trend well.

Agree on inflation likely;
but cash is used to buy those/real estate.... Matter of fact i asked a used car dealer, you prefer cash or cerrtfied checks.??? He said either;
but bank cert check is 2 % extra.:D
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Cash/king certainly would be preferable to big debt;
even though some would dispute that[Well before LEH, Citigroup , BearStearns went bust, anyway............................................]And before they went bust we did NOT pay extra for bank certified checks.

Market could go down another 20-30%, but its an old old bear.

But if oil starts uptrending well/up spiking, bear may get a whole new DOWN- trend:cool:
 
The administration announces that capital gains taxes are suspended indefinelty and corporate tax rates will be progressively reduced to 2.5% over the the next 5 years...

this fantasy annoucement would do the trick
 
Quote from SCI new york:

To put it simply. No. Just no. But I would like to know who your coke dealer is. He's feeding you some good stuff. You don't know what you're talking about. This wont last 7 years. This will be over faster than you dingbats can cover your shorts.
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You need to wake up from your dream, you really think this will be over "FASTER than you dingbats can cover your shorts"....

That is a foolish response, you actually think the biggest credit crisis in this nations history is going to be over so soon, I feel sorry for you, expect this to last alot longer than you think, the stimulus plan IS NOT GOING TO WORK. Aside from that this market will trade down another 15-25%. Every fool who thought the lows of november 21st were going to hold will be proven very wrong. This market has NO catalyst and will not have one for many years. As I said earlier and will repeat myself till you actually understand me, this economy is not going to turn around for at least another 5-7 years, the DOW and the rest of the indexes will not see new highs for at least a DECADE or more, no need to rush in and buy. Only reason to buy will be for the short term 10-20% rally that every bear market has, of course that will fool every bull to thinking the next bull market is here but all you should expect is a return to new lows and a market that will trade sideways for many, many, many years to come. See you at dow 7000 and eventually 6500.

Dont get too bullish on any rally to 8000, you will just be fooled like every other bull to thinking the worst is over, the worst has yet to come for this market.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

I am not as bullish as you but I definitely agree this recession will be shorter than most bears want us to believe. Certainly it will be shorter than S2007S is predicting. Recessions breed this type of panic and negative thinking. During every single recession there are always people believing "this is the big one", "this is the one that brings us back to the depression".

I am sure the bears will reply to this post with their reasons why this is in fact "the big one" that won't recover for x amount of years but again, every single recession breeds the same type of thinking.
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I have heard for the past 1-2 years that this is the same old recession that we have been through, ITS NOT. This is alot worse than any other time in history, Im not trying to be to negative but there is no growth left in this economy, GDP has fallen and will continue to trend lower for many years, you will be lucky to see 1% GDP anytime over the next 3 or 4 years as the economy continues to shrink. I can say now that this is a very deep recession where the economy is actually leaning on a depression at the moment. This is not your typical late 80's early 90's recession or early 1970s recession, this is a crisis that has never been witnessed before.
 
Quote from OTCkrak:

The administration announces that capital gains taxes are suspended indefinelty and corporate tax rates will be progressively reduced to 2.5% over the the next 5 years...

this fantasy annoucement would do the trick
More...



They are trying to come up with ideas that some were never thought possible, suspending the capital gains tax for 2,3 or 5 years would most likely put a cushion under the market. I agree that announcing something of this matter could be a big positive for the market.


Im sure they have alot of things they are working on that could change this market environment forever.
 
Quote from murray t turtle:

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Certainly could be posible,K007;
but cash is king & hard assets/real estate/metals trend well.

Agree on inflation likely;
but cash is used to buy those/real estate.... Matter of fact i asked a used car dealer, you prefer cash or cerrtfied checks.??? He said either;
but bank cert check is 2 % extra.:D
=========================================

Cash/king certainly would be preferable to big debt;
even though some would dispute that[Well before LEH, Citigroup , BearStearns went bust, anyway............................................]And before they went bust we did NOT pay extra for bank certified checks.

Market could go down another 20-30%, but its an old old bear.

But if oil starts uptrending well/up spiking, bear may get a whole new DOWN- trend:cool:
More...

I see your point now. So cash is king right now in order to have it to buy the hard assets etc. once inflation kicks in, am I correct?
 
Quote from S2007S:

I have heard for the past 1-2 years that this is the same old recession that we have been through, ITS NOT. This is alot worse than any other time in history, Im not trying to be to negative but there is no growth left in this economy, GDP has fallen and will continue to trend lower for many years, you will be lucky to see 1% GDP anytime over the next 3 or 4 years as the economy continues to shrink. I can say now that this is a very deep recession where the economy is actually leaning on a depression at the moment. This is not your typical late 80's early 90's recession or early 1970s recession, this is a crisis that has never been witnessed before.
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Agreed that this is not your typical recession. This recession will likely be deeper and more prolonged than a "normal" recession, but regardless, I've heard the same arguments in past recessions from the bears. I am also pessimistic on the short/mid term prospects of the economy but not nearly to the extent you are. You are entitled to your opinion which I respect. But since you are so confident in your prediction of a flat market for 5-7 years and a return to highs in a decade, I would hope you admit you were wrong if the evidence piles against you, as I will do if it turns out you are correct.
 
Quote from Kassz007:

Agreed that this is not your typical recession. This recession will likely be deeper and more prolonged than a "normal" recession, but regardless, I've heard the same arguments in past recessions from the bears. I am also pessimistic on the short/mid term prospects of the economy but not nearly to the extent you are. You are entitled to your opinion which I respect. But since you are so confident in your prediction of a flat market for 5-7 years and a return to highs in a decade, I would hope you admit you were wrong if the evidence piles against you, as I will do if it turns out you are correct.
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There's some statistical evidence (I forget the paper) that mkt participants generally underestimate the length of economic cycles. I would therefore tend to agree with a longer estimate.
 
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