What could be a catalyst for a 20-30% rally?

[murray t turtle]

Quote from neutrino:

This is a good candidate for the type of catalyst I am talking about, although it would practically create zombie banks. Either this, or nationalization. But I don't think any long term investors or hedge funds will run to buy banks (or cover shorts), if they fear a possible nationalization. Same thing for private capital. Once it happens however, the will be no more uncertainty. In a bank crisis, someone has to step in and recapitalize the banks.

In the 1907 panic, it was a group of bankers led by J. P. Morgan and the US Treasury (there was no central bank). Unfortunately it was not a one day event, but a process that took about a month before the market turned. During the month after each problem was solved, a new problem emerged. The Dow Jones index fell a total of 50% in that year.

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Another catalyst, or a series of them, 50% off sales.
Seeing graph of more than a few bear markets changing trends;
around 50% peak to valley.

As far as ''would create zombie banks'';
some of the bigger bank managers seemed to already have reached that low level goal-LOL

So you made some neat points, but without new big bank [ & GM.....]managers, big capital really will not help [Character means more than collateral, both are important]

Excellant collateral [ real estate ] in the hands of a crooked [character-lacking] bank manager or bank borrower, simply gets trashed.Then its no longer excellant collateral, its trashed collateral.........................................

Best of times & worst of times.

 

[crgarcia]

Quote from neutrino:

What do you think could be the news that has the potential to spark a 20-30% rally in this market?

I think (though I may be wrong), that the market cannot turn without a catalyst. Remember the reaction after the first 700bn bailout plan was rumored back in September?

What if they finally announce a detailed plan for nationalization and reorganization of all banks? This should theoretically be the bottom, because all equity holders and most bond holders of banks will be wiped out, and there will be no more losses to recognize at that point.

This may or may not be the long term solution we need to get out of a recession, but could very well be the end of the bank and liquidity crisis? And this is an interesting observation - prices may not be too far from their top, so we didn't lose that much in terms of price, but in terms of duration and time, we are in a bear market for nine years already.

Only time will solve this mess completely.

Things gov't do stop the fall, but a complete recovery will take time.

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:


Cash is the new king, period. Play's in Hard Assets are more likley this decade than stocks. We know Inflation is on the horizon.

Aren't you contradicting yourself here? If inflation is on the horizon (which it is), then cash most certainly would NOT be king. Anything BUT cash would be king.

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

The euro is surging on news of Germany economic relief programs. Honk Kong aslos surging.

We could get a 30% rally if the dollar tanks and inflation begins to picks up.

That will stick the final nail in the coffin of the deflation spiral myth.

He was right?! Inflation has increased more than expected as per the news today. Temporary? Maybe. But increased nonetheless.

 

[TrueRange]

Quote from tickmagnet:

WAR!!!!

That would be my first guess and probably the right one.

Second would be something like a 1 year moratorium on all taxes. They can call it "A super duper love your gracious leader check". Then we can all kneel and bow to our messiah.

 

[stock_trad3r]

Yup producer prices rise and euro surging, but for some reason stocks still lower. This isn't justified. the dow should be up 200 points at least given this good news.

Yes jobless claims are high, but they have stabilized. Double digit unemployment isn't likely to happen,and even if it does it isn't necessary bearish since spikes in unemployment precede massive bull markets.

 

[SCI new york]

Quote from S2007S:

There is no catalyst, as I have been saying there doesn't need to be a catalyst to push the markets higher in a bear market. There will be sudden rallies in this market, don't be fooled though, this bear market will be here for many years, I predict at least a 7-10 year bear market, this market will trade sideways for many years as economic growth stalls.

To put it simply. No. Just no. But I would like to know who your coke dealer is. He's feeding you some good stuff. You don't know what you're talking about. This wont last 7 years. This will be over faster than you dingbats can cover your shorts.

 

[lpchad]

Quote from S2007S:

There is no catalyst, as I have been saying there doesn't need to be a catalyst to push the markets higher in a bear market. There will be sudden rallies in this market, don't be fooled though, this bear market will be here for many years, I predict at least a 7-10 year bear market, this market will trade sideways for many years as economic growth stalls.

eProps. You speak the truth....

 

[lpchad]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Yup producer prices rise and euro surging, but for some reason stocks still lower. This isn't justified. the dow should be up 200 points at least given this good news.

Yes jobless claims are high, but they have stabilized. Double digit unemployment isn't likely to happen,and even if it does it isn't necessary bearish since spikes in unemployment precede massive bull markets.

I'm long stock_trad3r to 10,000+

(as in posts)

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from SCI new york:

To put it simply. No. Just no. But I would like to know who your coke dealer is. He's feeding you some good stuff. You don't know what you're talking about. This wont last 7 years. This will be over faster than you dingbats can cover your shorts.

I am not as bullish as you but I definitely agree this recession will be shorter than most bears want us to believe. Certainly it will be shorter than S2007S is predicting. Recessions breed this type of panic and negative thinking. During every single recession there are always people believing "this is the big one", "this is the one that brings us back to the depression".

I am sure the bears will reply to this post with their reasons why this is in fact "the big one" that won't recover for x amount of years but again, every single recession breeds the same type of thinking.