What comes next for SP500: $2100 or $2900

[orbit23]

So yeah, what do you reckon comes first? Sp500 is at $2510 at the time of this post.

Vote in the poll!

 

[S2007S]

Pump to 2900 because the fed will not allow markets to sell off past the point where they propped them up a few hundred s$p points ago. A drop to 2100 would definitely mean a cut right through 2000 and if that happens you can expect more fed propping and trillions more in stimulus.

 

[Amahrix]

So yeah, what do you reckon comes first? Sp500 is at $2510 at the time of this post.

Vote in the poll!

To me it’s irrelevant. Furthermore, belief in either is irrelevant. Which offers better risk reward. Take that side of the bet, whether you “believe” in the opposite outcome or not.

 

[FriskyCat]

IF, a big IF, it follows late 2018/early 2019 bottom, then expect the low around 2450, then another big ramp (perhaps to tag the downward sloping trendlines). It paused yesterday at the weekly 200day MA around 2640 area. All SPX cash prices.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

To me it’s irrelevant. Furthermore, belief in either is irrelevant. Which offers better risk reward. Take that side of the bet, whether you “believe” in the opposite outcome or not.

How can you determine risk without determining probability? And how you accurately determine probability?

 

[easymon1]

determining probability?

mr fj, glad you made it back from your travels.
where's the slideshow?

 

[Amahrix]

How can you determine risk without determining probability? And how you accurately determine probability?

I believe you’ve slightly misinterpreted my point

nevertheless I believe this is of great value to answer the Specific question above
https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/knowledge.pdf

 

[farmerjohn1324]

mr fj, glad you made it back from your travels.
where's the slideshow?

Determine probability by gathering lots of data points and seeing patterns.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Pump to 2900 because the fed will not allow markets to sell off past the point where they propped them up a few hundred s$p points ago. A drop to 2100 would definitely mean a cut right through 2000 and if that happens you can expect more fed propping and trillions more in stimulus.

I _hate_ that this is part of the calculus.

 

[VolSkewTrader]

Fed made it clear they are not coming in to buy e-mini S&P futures, SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM to save the equity market. They're absolutely not buying any high risk assets, which includes junk bonds and any form of common stock or equity inexes/ETFs.

So 1700 SP 500 and 90+% print in the VIX looks like a real possibility.