what can be predicted and what cannot be in the market?

M

mute9003

im stuck at a point where i dont know what i dont know and its messing up my trading. i always think that somethign i did can be predicted if i had more information..
so i want to ask what parts of the market can absolutely be predicted with certainty what can be predicted somewhat accurate and what absolutely cannot be predicted
as a trader

and what is out there that bigger institutions can predict by using algorithms and computers etc...
 
That is a complex but straightforward question.

In trading, nothing can be predicted.

We just focus on the charts and REACT to them.
ie we have to stare at the screen for many many hours
looking for opportunities / patterns / signals ....

millions of people cannot tolerate staring at the screen for
many many hours.
so they come up with ideas like automation and those things.
will it work?!?!


Don't trade based on anticipation / prediction.
those who trade based on anticipation / prediction
probably don't have to stare at the screen for many many hours.
 
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mute9003 said:
im stuck at a point where i dont know what i dont know and its messing up my trading. i always think that somethign i did can be predicted if i had more information..
so i want to ask what parts of the market can absolutely be predicted with certainty what can be predicted somewhat accurate and what absolutely cannot be predicted
as a trader

and what is out there that bigger institutions can predict by using algorithms and computers etc...
More...
mute9003,

If I can absolutely predict the market direction, I be chilling with these fine ladies every day.

You have to stare at the chart and quantify a trading edge, then trade.


 
Lol don’t stare at a chart. Educate yourself on asset pricing and market structure. Stock prices are generally non-stationary geometric random walks. You cannot predict the next price of a stock. Stop trying to predict the price and instead try to predict outcomes of events (and what to do if you are wrong). Google “investment thesis” for tips.
 
mute9003 said:
i mean there is gotta be some things that can be predicted to some degree?
More...
Pretty much a mortal lock that stocks don't trade on Saturday Night EST.
That could change too considering the myriad of events we see today that were unthinkable decade or two ago.
 
mute9003 said:
i mean there is gotta be some things that can be predicted to some degree?
More...
What timeframe charts do you want to trade?
If you Could Predict something, as opposed to estimating the probability of an outcome, what would it be that you would expect to be one of the things that can be predicted to some degree?
 
easymon1 said:
What timeframe charts do you want to trade?
If you Could Predict something, as opposed to estimating the probability of an outcome, what would it be that you would expect to be one of the things that can be predicted to some degree?
More...

well is your profit to loss ratio is above 50% arent you predicting the outcome with more than 50% probability?
 
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