What basic two things am I misunderstanding about moving averages?

[heypa]

J.M.Hurst's book Titled "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" was published by Prentice Hall in 1970. It touched upon plotting moving averages. No you can't have my copy.

 

[vicirek]

J.M.Hurst's book Titled "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" was published by Prentice Hall in 1970. It touched upon plotting moving averages. No you can't have my copy.

I have copy of this book, thank you, will check it again just for fun and maybe profit.

 

[dartmus]

We are discussing the use of moving averages not my trading results. Hurst a long time ago wrote a book about cyclic analysis.There is a lot of good information in the previous entrees and many threads discussing moving averages contain suggestions on using them. With 635 posts you're obviously not a newbie.Do the the work don't ask to be spoon fed. You looked at one chart. Whoopee.

Price cycles typically are coincidental. The few that aren't coincidental aren't measurable using one half the cycle length because social, political and economic intervention isn't a length based cycle. Those cycles correlate directly to the logic and whims of everyone who influences them. Anyone successfully trading those cycles is following fundamentally based correlations directly based on insight into the principles which determine when one of those cycles is turning. Attempting to decompose the wave length of numerous and often competing cycles requires fourier or equally complex analysis and those methods aren't applicable to price data.

I have immense respect for you heypa ...and for Hurst ...and for confirming things ourselves rather than following commonly accepted truth. Studying price cycles in this manner is good ...but ...

 

[heypa]

dratsum I agree that he went too far,but you can find some stocks where half cycle analysis can be used. Not easy to find but they are there. Since I must work mostly visually I firmly believe in KISS no make it KIDS.

 

[piezoe]

Price cycles typically are coincidental. The few that aren't coincidental aren't measurable using one half the cycle length because social, political and economic intervention isn't a length based cycle. Those cycles correlate directly to the logic and whims of everyone who influences them. Anyone successfully trading those cycles is following fundamentally based correlations directly based on insight into the principles which determine when one of those cycles is turning. Attempting to decompose the wave length of numerous and often competing cycles requires fourier or equally complex analysis and those methods aren't applicable to price data.

I have immense respect for you heypa ...and for Hurst ...and for confirming things ourselves rather than following commonly accepted truth. Studying price cycles in this manner is good ...but ...

What you point out so well will be intuitive to many who have been involved in markets a long time. This is why I assumed Panzerman's remarks were humorous rather than serious. I hope so, because if his post wasn't meant to be silly, what he wrote was wrong. His post certainly wasn't helpful to the Original Poster, who was obviously a neophyte seeking assistance. (I wonder if 'Panzerman' is 'volpunter', who I believe is German, besides being rude.)

 

[SunTrader]

Price is price. Averages are averages.

Price moves the averages. The averages reacts to the price.

Not the other way around.

Or another words a squiggle on a chart is still just a squiggle on a chart no matter how much rocket science math massaging is done to it.

 

[d08]

Never heard of anyone mainly trading off MAs, I suppose they have some benefit as a filter but only when used one at a time.
So many wasted hours on finding the "perfect MA combinations" years ago, I'll never get those back.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

So many wasted hours on finding the "perfect MA combinations" years ago, I'll never get those back.

Amen, d08
time is precious...some traders spend countless hours staring at the celestial plane...looking for answers in the stars

 

[kut2k2]

And better yet, is there a way to back test moving average ideas if you don't program?

thanks for any help!

Excel is great for all backtesting. No programming required. And figuring out how to make excel work for you is a great mental workout. I highly recommend it.

 

[kut2k2]

Neitherpublished nor anyone else who admits to primarily using DSP for technical analysis have disclosed their records. Ehlers is very open about his methods and approaches trading with a solid science and engineering mind.

Of course that doesn't mean DSP, or TA in general, will make you or anyone else profitable.

No but every now and then it would be nice if some guru did a backtest or two, you know, just to kinda back up these great methods they're always advocating.