I think you failed to grasp, that the author of Practical Speculation was voted unanimously as the world's top hedge fund performer? They also traded actively and averaged a 30% yearly return over many years.
What are you presently reading?
- Thread starter mikeriley
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I think you failed to grasp, that the author of Practical Speculation was voted unanimously as the world's top hedge fund performer? They also traded actively and averaged a 30% yearly return over many years.
So, it's midnight here and I have just finished Practical Speculation. It was a good read, because I only come across a few contrarian books to the Shiller crowd.
That said, I'm about 1/3 through this next big puppy of 650 pages!
That said, I'm about 1/3 through this next big puppy of 650 pages!
So, those two books thus far....what wisdoms have you gleaned from them, that can actually be applied to successful trading of the market, for you in the real world with real results, and real money?
I'm not being sarcastic or condescending or anything, but just actually curious.
I could literally write that same 'The Futures Game' book: The Trading Game and/or The Options Game. Who Wins, Who Loses, & Why. By Bob Smith/Average Man/Me...Would you read it? Assuming I'm a successful, self-made, millionaire trader who started from scratch. But then again, all book authors (and course sellers) seem to have some kind of Story that helps Sell their story.
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Everyone is different, if you know everything, then it may not be worth reading... as for Practical Speculation, one new thing to me was a bias flaw pointed out regarding the Shiller PE ratios... and examples of why value investors often get in at the worst times. This is something I don't see discussed in other books. No one seems to want to attack Shiller. And Vic takes an attack on the 'Buffett meter'.
Another interesting thing was that contrary to popular belief, REITs have NOT outperformed the S&P. This is because there is survivorship bias in those statistics that don't get accounted for.
Also, the death of companies in the original indexes is NOT as bad as it seems. Many of them (the capital) is still there, just they've been re-branded and packaged under different names over time.
Someone else who reads the book may get other insights. As for the futures one, I'm no expert on them, so everything is kinda useful to me. The only futures I've traded were CME Ethereum futures, and while I did good there, it was just for educational purposes.
Contradiction/nonsense spews forth post after post.
I had a very long trip on Friday, so loaded up on Audiobooks. Went through these two titles:
Warren Buffett on Business
Principles from the Sage of Omaha
Warren Buffett Speaks
Wit and Wisdom from the World's Greatest Investor
Both books were vary similar. I'm currently going on a third Buffett book, written by a derivatives trader who spilled the beans on Buffett/Munger's derivatives trading that no one talks about. We'll see how that book turns out when I'm done.
But seems Munger likes to short PUTs on companies at a strike price he wants to get in. Buffett likes to short PUTs on very long out LEAPs on US indexes. His logic being that he's going long on the US economy and expects it to do well (or recover) long in the future. If by chance the indexes fall below his strikes, he still considers that a bargain.
Well hell, he won't be around in 20 more years (I don't think). So maybe it don't matter to him now what happens by then. lol
Warren Buffett on Business
Principles from the Sage of Omaha
Warren Buffett Speaks
Wit and Wisdom from the World's Greatest Investor
Both books were vary similar. I'm currently going on a third Buffett book, written by a derivatives trader who spilled the beans on Buffett/Munger's derivatives trading that no one talks about. We'll see how that book turns out when I'm done.
But seems Munger likes to short PUTs on companies at a strike price he wants to get in. Buffett likes to short PUTs on very long out LEAPs on US indexes. His logic being that he's going long on the US economy and expects it to do well (or recover) long in the future. If by chance the indexes fall below his strikes, he still considers that a bargain.
Well hell, he won't be around in 20 more years (I don't think). So maybe it don't matter to him now what happens by then. lol
I am a fan of Sven Carlin's Youtube channel. So gave his book a try. Still early into it, but so far I am liking it.
Alright, it's just before 7 pm on Sunday. I've finished Sven's book, and I can't really complain. It's a good review for value investors, one difference between Sven and Buffett is Sven (as many other value investors) prefers to own gold in the portfolios. Gold-miners preferably, but spot ETFs are ok too if you don't want the risk/gamble of miners.
“If you don’t own gold...there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it..." Ray Dalio”
The case is made that having just 5% of your portfolio in gold, protects you from a 50% downswing in S&P 500.
It does make sense, because gold will 10x-20x in these times. So 5% GLD is good enough for a full hedge.
There is a bad caveat though, if/when gold were to ever fall to $1000 an ounce, then 90% of goldminers will become insolvent and go bust.
Hence, Sven prefers miners that also harvest copper if possible.
“If you don’t own gold...there is no sensible reason other than you don’t know history or you don’t know the economics of it..." Ray Dalio”
The case is made that having just 5% of your portfolio in gold, protects you from a 50% downswing in S&P 500.
It does make sense, because gold will 10x-20x in these times. So 5% GLD is good enough for a full hedge.
There is a bad caveat though, if/when gold were to ever fall to $1000 an ounce, then 90% of goldminers will become insolvent and go bust.
Hence, Sven prefers miners that also harvest copper if possible.