What are the rules of your trading system?

Quote from Paddler:

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Sorry I left a word out. Where you put day I meant to type hour. The am turns on price follow the volume signal by up to 1 1/2 hours.

When you look at the color change on FRV column of the one pager, you see that DU is reached during that opening period of 1 1/2 hours.

If you read "Putting the Piesces Together" it may get pretty clear that using charts for trading means just going from the list by clicking on the symbol and bringing up a chart on a good timeframe for doing the "carving" on the trading fractal.

On ES, the End Effect locations are a visual phenomena. Therefore, the mental loop is only 10 to 100milliseconds a lap on a display pane. I can ripple across significant panes by "knowing" the pane to pane to pane pathway from repeated drills for dacades.

I have suggested that my eye movement be recorded for analysis purposes in those past decades. Now we just use GTM and the countdown clock for each bar. There are many jokes about different clock readings. Mostly center on how getting faked out could happen.

Making money is kind of in the picture but, like poker, counting chips happens after the game. People still play poker even though they know what will happen after the game is over.

In blackjack, I just played because of the fun. I remember my quirks. I counted the rate of dealer changing. And I got to prefer black haired dealers. It was a drag when a new non black haired dealer stepped in.

In all trading, you have to have mechanical facility to control the display. And I look for changes on the screen.

The DOM and T&S and the OTR only get my attention when something is going on.

Lately, I have been trying hard to distill the whole picture into its finite simple terms. For now I am on twin anti's for biotics and fungals. when blood work is not error free (analysis) then I wind up going through tough, rapid procedures that take a couple of hours to pinpoint errors. Try a reading of 8.4 in K sometime (a cardiac arrest treatment is called for in emergency care).

So doing trading is a routine and "you know that you know".

So far no one is writing papers that show anyone is even in the ball park. there is no predicting and no probability. Everything is certain and orderly.
 
Quote from paddler:

"But don't you think that no one is able to come out with a system set of events with three complete subsets of price, volume and trend end-effects?"


I think anyone could and I also know that it is required to do.

I posted elsewhere about a child who dumped three puzzles on a card table. The boxes could be volume, price and End Effects.

His mommy would tell him to put the pieces back in the boxes. So he does by turning the pieces upsidedown and sorting them.

But what if?

Imagine his mommy saying "cool I was hoping you would do that for me." Then she gets out three new containers and says to him to put the pieces into containers for analyzing sub 1 sub 2 and sub 3.

I did that. When I did it was clear to me that I needed triplicates (or more) of the price and volume pieces and that all the END Effects pieces were only used only once AND they were put, uniquely, into only one box.

I should make a video of me doing this.

During any trend a person picks up only one box at a time. He uses them according to their sub number. At the end of a sub, if he reaches it, he sees he has not used any End Effect pieces.

He picks the next box. either he gets through the sub or he uses an End Effect piece.

Lastly, he uses the third sub box AND he knows he knows he will use an End Effect that is in that box.

Since I am all drugged up and cannot do creating for a while, I just goof off and write. I have a four part book outlined and I have finshied the 8 chapters in the first part. for the other three parts, eight chapters each, all I need to do is cut and paste.

I could get 9 sheets of plywood and make three puzzles: 11 pieces, 10 pieces and 35 pieces. I would make 4 each of the small ones and only one of the big one. By using sharpies I could write out the name of each piece and have different colors, too.

Then I could do the video. But I wouldn't do statistics.

The most interesting part of the video would be putting the End Effects into the three sub boxes.

The boxes would be egg cartons (2 x 6's) I would put in the pieces according to their required order of use.

Here is what it comes down to. If a person watched the video enough times, he would stop using the video and go look at a day of the market and just sit there and make money all day long.

the video would be called "Big Bird" since I would dress up as big bird and make it possible for the financial crisis to end with all the additional taxes flowing (the markets get bigger since everyone is doing trading).
 
Quote from Handle123:

Unless you are good at buying the bottoms, which are usually against the major trend, not going to Buy Low. And if you are strictly a trend trader, you will Buy High and try to Sell Higher.
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All bottoms are with the major trend or its not a bottom (you find this out later judging by your present level of expertise).

If you are a trend trader then you know the difference between a retrace and a reversal.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

For the OP to use as a practice tool because Sharpe is 60 plus.

A. Construct filter.

Use 7 criteria: exchange location; float range; price range; institutional holdings; minimum liquidity; minimum EPS; and minimum RS.

B. Color stock symbols to designate the sentiment.

Use function to designate color of symbol. Only trade "long" sentiment.

C. Wait rule

Do not enter if stock has pro rata volume less than 0.25 of 65 day average.

D. Entry rule.

Enter when stock on list has first volume of 0.25 of 65 day average within 1.5 hours of open. Technical equivalent if you wish to cut and paste coding: enter if stock has pro rata volume greater than 0.65 of 65 day average after prior wait condition.

E. Hold rule.

Hold for as long as the stock has pro rata volume greater than 1.80 of 65 day average day after prior entry condition.

F. Exit rule

Exit the stock when pro rata volume is less than 1.80 of 65 day average day after prior hold condition.

Summary.

These rules yield results to meet goals. (rules according to MarkBrown). The gola of this system is to never have losses. It can also be traded short by changing the sentiment rule. you will have trades 4 to 5 days long. At a minimum you will make 10% a trade and double capital every 40 days maximum. This means you double 6 times a year.

The main purpose of this method is to allow anyone to start with very little money.

A first improvement would be to convert this simple program to crossover trading of portfolios.

If you are orieinted to the OODA of CW you will not be able to understand how to trade with leading indicators of price.

Also coding is very difficult. In part A you need 7 criteria coded and put into a filter construct.

For part B the deception that begins to coding is that this is easy. It is not easy and I rarely meet professionals who can code sentiment, ever.

In trading, coding has to be failsafe. This means part C is a gate/kill mechanism. Most people do not have complete codes as you see by the posts in ET.

In part D I gave you two means. I also introduced how quickly work can be done to code by using cut and paste.

Overall I showed you how to have a high Sharpe Ratio (tested by third parties for objectivity). I used these rules at a tradersExpo in an exhibitor's booth. It took only a matter of minutes for them to do the coding for B through F. A was impossible since they did not have the data. A substitute was used instead and we only got the 60 plus Sharpe result.

You have to picture the limitations of programmers and traders. All are oriented to the betting and hoping and not doing research or critical thinking. This means they operate on beliefs in a conventional handed down tradition.

The people who did the code (drag and drop) needed no time they had the coding tooling down cold. AND THEY WERE INCAPABLE OF BELIEVING THEIR RESULTS. They were defeated immediately since the results did not fit their beliefs and conventional goals. This is not as glib as the MarkBrown airhead contribution. These people repeated the coding and got the same test result for a year's data. Then they saw a new world for what the market offers.

What happens now.

This post will be trashed and ignored. Hey ,that is how it goes. So have a laugh at the trashing. That is what I am going to do, too.
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I've tried to get my mind around this as a working example and I'm not clear on a couple things. Since your rules do not utilize current price fluctuations, you could be buying as it's dropping, then selling as it settles lower. Would you provide a simple example of the entry, hold and exit rules firing? IE: 65 day avg of 100k shares...
 
Quote from toofastcomet:

I've tried to get my mind around this as a working example and I'm not clear on a couple things. Since your rules do not utilize current price fluctuations, you could be buying as it's dropping, then selling as it settles lower. Would you provide a simple example of the entry, hold and exit rules firing? IE: 65 day avg of 100k shares...
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I would be glad to. I use a leading indicator of price for trading. That is why my rules do not include price which lags the independent variable.

Please refer to "Putting the Pieces Together" published by Adobe LLamingos, 22JUN2006. (IBD MeetUp Number 5, a Camtasia from which the transcript was typed).

If you like videos then watch the video as you flip the pages.

There you will see in my handwriting 14 such stocks (Page 17)

A complete sets of rules and measurement is on the onepager shown as illustration 11 on page 30. It is in four color to make it easy for children to use.

A day later, those stocks were exited and/or bought as stated in the text and illustrations.

For all of the document you can see that the 65 day average was used. The three volume ststes (DU, FRV and Peaking) are all tied to the independent variable's 65 day average mathematically by using Arithmetic's decimal multiplication.

Luckily, I also included some price information (the making money part which takes care of itself).

Also here is how the trading "could" work to trade "short". Your comment is interesting. Not many people buy falling stocks and hold them until the price is lower. You sound like cooldudtrader.

Also before ET, there was a dialogue on a trade that netted 17 points on 100k shares. It was verified by a third party as you will see.

Sometimes I am asked questions by people who do not use computers to any degree. If such, others will come to your aid. A lot of ET records are destroyed so you may have to go to ET archives outside of ET.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

All bottoms are with the major trend or its not a bottom (you find this out later judging by your present level of expertise).

If you are a trend trader then you know the difference between a retrace and a reversal.
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Actually you are wrong, (you find this out later judging by your present level of expertise). If there is a stock where it is basing for several months after a huge run up, it can still decline.

Just keep rocking there Hershey and maybe you will learn something.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

Also here is how the trading "could" work to trade "short". Your comment is interesting. Not many people buy falling stocks and hold them until the price is lower. You sound like cooldudtrader.
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Let me rephrase my original comment. If the guys at the TradersExpo booth only used your rules of volume, their system could have bought as it was falling. Then when the volume settled, the system automatically sold lower. I took your scenario with no assumptions of other rules, including leading indicators.

BTW, thanks for pointing me at the document; I need to study it further.
 
Quote from Handle123:

Actually you are wrong, (you find this out later judging by your present level of expertise). If there is a stock where it is basing for several months after a huge run up, it can still decline.

Just keep rocking there Hershey and maybe you will learn something.
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Here is yesterday (the ES). My comments are based on the system of operation of markets.

You mentioned an example, this chart shows your example and it also includes my comment which you presently see as incorrect.

Thus my comment is more inclusive. Being totally inclusive is a good goal. That is my orientation.

The bold boxed turns (c D to D) are sufficient for trading nested fractals on a hold/reversal basis.

Making money is a matter of taking the market's full offer all of the time. To that end, a trader uses a leading indicator of price (as shown). This precludes the common entry/exit level of trading.

As you see, there are some basing periods in the drifting upward in the midday and into the pm to close. Thus a trader just makes money during those times AND concurrently, he stays on the correct side of the market.

You can note that the trader takes the profits available just as the basing begins. When the basing ends, the trader agan takes profits and returns to the slower fractal drift as shown on the slower fractal.

I keep my answr sheet available at all times so I am able to know well in advance of a dependent variable turn, that the turn is coming. As it arrives, then I carve the turn.

Could you post the symbol of the stock you are referring to and why you are watching it, please?
 

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