What Are the Odds of a Depression? WSJ Op/Ed

Mav88 · Mar 5, 2009

The study is interesting, but don't confuse correlation with causation. I think every depression is unique, the stock market has crashed, the depths of this are not predictable.

Martinghoul · Mar 5, 2009

An interesting study, by a worthwhile author, but it's a hypothesis, no more, no less. I have seen so many of these recently and, frankly, I just don't give a damn, anymore.

BondTrader50 · Mar 5, 2009

There's a 100% chance that there's a 20% likelihood of a depression based on 22% of analyzed data.

TopTrader8 · Mar 5, 2009

Quote from Mav88:

lol, ever heard of stagflation? I wish people would shut up unless they know what they are talking about...

right from WIKI for you http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is often associated with wars (or their aftermath), economic depressions, and political or social upheavals

Yes. I know what stagflation is. I lived thru it.

Again, my question is concerning a depression. How do you have inflation in a depression? I didn't ask, how do you have inflation in a recession? Got it now?

toolifog · Mar 5, 2009

Robert Barro was interviewed today on CNBC's "Fast Money". He revised his estimate to >30% chance of depression based on the extent of recent market declines (original estimate was based on numbers through January).

Random.Capital · Mar 5, 2009

Quote from Kevin Schmit:

They can monetize the long end, for one thing.

They can *try* to monetize the long end. The attempt would fail as that sort of action cannot succeed when the currency involved is so fundamental to trade.

Fractals 'R Us · Mar 5, 2009

Quote from TopTrader8:

The other thing I hear some talking heads saying is that with all the government spending on the horizon, we're in for a "Hyper-Inflationary Depression". What kind of oxymoronic idea is that?

How are you going to have inflation in a depression?

We could easily have just that. GDP falling and the fed printing so much money to get us out of the credit lockup that it's value falls faster than the GDP. Good time to have a lot of paid off properties and some gold too.

Currently the biggest problem with the Stock Market is Obama's mouth, every time he speaks we throw off a few hundred points. Bush /Cheney took flak for saying that we might be going into a recession when they took office, now this clown gets by with announcing crisis day after day and he gets a pass. He's supposed to lead us out of troubles not deepen the crisis by undermining confidemce. He should go back to street level organizing where he belongs.

S2007S · Mar 5, 2009

They recently said we were in a RECE$$ion, it will take years before they recognize were in a depression when in fact were probably in one RIGHT now. Once the banks fail and billions are pulled from the system by every man and women there will be a total economic collapse.