What are the economic implications of ageing populations?

[OddTrader]

What are the economic implications of ageing populations?

02 Oct 2015

Ben Franklin
Author, International Longevity Centre


https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/10/what-are-the-economic-implications-of-ageing-populations/

Population ageing around the world

* Population ageing is a global phenomenon. The rate of growth in older people (people aged over 65) is expected to far outpace the rise of the working age population (people age 15-64). The chart below implies that the old age population will grow by over 300% over the course of this century by comparison to the working age population which will grow by less than 50%.

* Developing countries will age most rapidly of all seeing a dramatic increase in the numbers of older people. Less developed countries will, for instance, see their older populations rise by nearly 4.5 times by the end of this century.

* Cumulative change in old age and working age populations: Less developed countriesBy contrast, developed countries are likely to see more subdued growth in their older age populations, rising by around 70%. And in contrast with the developing world where its working age population is expected to continue rising, the developed world is expected to experience of fall in the working age population of over 10%.

 

[OddTrader]

What does all this mean for dependency ratios?

Rapid population ageing in developing countries will result in sharp changes in the old age dependency ratio – which, in this context, is taken as the numbers of working age people for every older person (technically this an “inverse dependency ratio” but it is arguably easier to interpret). According to our calculations based on UN population projections, the world’s least developed countries will go from having around 16 working age people for every older person to around 4 by the end of this century. The developed world by contrast, will not experience such significant change. The developed world currently has 3.7 people of working age for every older person and this is expected to fall to 1.9 by the end of the period. The UK is expected to be broadly in line with the developed world – though it should be noted that its working age population is expected to continue rising well into this century.

 

[OddTrader]

In China today, this young guy at 20 something below would be going to financially support the whole family consisting of 7 or 8 (or more if not less) old aged family members (himself excluded), including great-grandparents, grandparents and parents, for now. Then not too soon later the number he is going to support could probably become a total of 9 to 10 members, when including his future wife and one child (himself excluded).

That number does not include any support to his potential future ex-wive or any of her dependence. Due to the advancements of modern medical/health treatments. Supposing he could still maintain his future job that wouldn't be removed/reduced/eliminated by any highly intelligent, capable and strong robots (working 24 hours a day, without any rest required)!

 

[Mtrader]

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-global-pension-crisis

"By 2050, the total gap is a predicted to be a staggering sum of $400 trillion – roughly five times the size of the global economy today."

 

[OddTrader]

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/5-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-global-pension-crisis

"By 2050, the total gap is a predicted to be a staggering sum of $400 trillion – roughly five times the size of the global economy today."

We’ll Live to 100 – How Can We Afford It?


Han Yik, Head of Institutional Investors, World Economic Forum


http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_White_Paper_We_Will_Live_to_100.pdf

Savings shortfall – breakdown country by country ($ trillions of 2015)

Country
Unfunded government pillar 1 and public employee pension promises
Unfunded corporate pension promises
Individual savings shortfall
Total 2015
Total 2050

Australia
1.5
0
0
1.5
8.7

Canada
2.5
0
0.1
2.7
13.4

China
7.7
0
3
10.7
118.7

India
1.3
0
2.1
3.5
85.4

Japan
6.7
0.2
4.1
11
25.7

Netherlands
1.7
0
0
1.7
6.4

UK
5.9
0.1
2
8
32.8

US
23.2
0.6
4.1
27.8
136.8

Total
50.5
0.9
15.6
66.9
427.8

 

[Humpy]

The politicians have treated the pensioners disgracefully for years. As far as I can tell that goes for most countries, even UK.
If they were keener on helping others rather than stuffing their own fat faces then the solution is obvious.
Get the pensioners more involved in things like business start ups where they can pass on their knowledge to youngsters and pay them a living wage.
It is sickening to see the filthy rich arrogantly living in luxury while others starve.

 

[OddTrader]

The politicians have treated the pensioners disgracefully for years. As far as I can tell that goes for most countries, even UK.
If they were keener on helping others rather than stuffing their own fat faces then the solution is obvious.
Get the pensioners more involved in things like business start ups where they can pass on their knowledge to youngsters and pay them a living wage.
It is sickening to see the filthy rich arrogantly living in luxury while others starve.

Perhaps the world's governments need internal auditing from external independent auditors covering not only financial/productivity efficiency but also quality evaluation in terms of generating quality/(added-)values nationally, wasting resources (like how to organise pensioners' experience/ knowledge/ productivity), and spending on non-productive issues (like warfare).

Spending on pensioners (as mentioned above), education, health, childcare, aged-care, etc. should be treated as productive and decent issues.

Without establishing measures and reviews/audits regarding government and politicians policies on national productivity and quality, many money and time would be spent on partisan non-productive arguments.

People need to see the future of a nation with a committed vision with actions plan, both long-/short-term impacts and pros/cons. This matrix, hence generating performance measures/reviews, is important, even vital, for evaluating a politician/government's capability/competence!

imo, any public policies without mentioning/explaining both long-term and short-term impacts/weightings as well as details of pros/cons would be just simply sneak oils.

A politician candidate/leader cannot be able to explain her/his proposed policy for its long-/short-term impacts about pros/cons in written forms should be immediately trained/educated until being able to do so before election. LOL

 

[Martinghoul]

Perhaps the world's governments need internal auditing from external independent auditors covering not only financial/productivity efficiency but also quality evaluation in terms of generating quality/(added-)values nationally, wasting resources (like how to organise pensioners' experience/ knowledge/ productivity), and spending on non-productive issues (like warfare).

Spending on pensioners (as mentioned above), education, health, childcare, aged-care, etc. should be treated as productive and decent issues.

Without establishing measures and reviews/audits regarding government and politicians policies on national productivity and quality, many money and time would be spent on partisan non-productive arguments.

People need to see the future of a nation with a committed vision with actions plan, both long-/short-term impacts and pros/cons. This matrix, hence generating performance measures/reviews, is important, even vital, for evaluating a politician/government's capability/competence!

imo, any public policies without mentioning/explaining both long-term and short-term impacts/weightings as well as details of pros/cons would be just simply sneak oils.

A politician candidate/leader cannot be able to explain her/his proposed policy for its long-/short-term impacts about pros/cons in written forms should be immediately trained/educated until being able to do so before election. LOL

Doesn't this sorta thing exist already?

E.g. CBO in the US, Cour de Comptes in France, OBR in the UK, etc etc...

 

[OddTrader]

Doesn't this sorta thing exist already?

E.g. CBO in the US, Cour de Comptes in France, OBR in the UK, etc etc...

Are they external orgainisations?
Doing internal audits based on a matrix consisting of long-/short-term pros/cons?
That a policy is offered as pro-forma written by politicians/governments, before election and afterwards review every 1- or 2-year?
That a written pro-forma policy can be objectively evaluated now and later by journalists/voters?
Covering not only financial but also productivity/quality aspects/issues?

I think I might be a bit slow to update myself on that progress.

 

[Martinghoul]

Are they external orgainisations?
Doing internal audits based on any written forms of matrix consisting of long-/short-term pros/cons?
That a policy is offered as pro-forma written by politicians/governments?
That a written pro-forma policy can be objectively evaluated now and later by journalists/voters?
Covering not only financial but also productivity/quality aspects/issues?

I think I might be a bit slow to update myself on that progress.

I am not sure how to define "external" in this context. They're designed to be somewhat independent. Whether they are in practice or not is another matter entirely.